Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, August 4, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: BALTIMORE has won 23 of its 31 games (74.2%, +14.95 units) against LA Angels
— The ROI on this trend is 48.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-156 vs. LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 460-407 record for +45.90 units and an ROI of 5.3% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+113 at BOS), DETROIT (+112 at SEA)
Trend: Over the total is 17-5 (+11.75 units) when starter Jesus Luzardo is at home and faces opponents with a <= 0.540 win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-PHI (o/u at 9)
* MIAMI LETDOWN in follow-up game after divisional series vs. NY METS: 13-22 (37.1%) record for -7.28 units, ROI: -20.8%
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+124 at ATL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 48-42 for -7.48 units for an ROI of -8.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): MINNESOTA (-149 at KC)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 68-105 for -41.83 units and an ROI of -24.2%. Fading these teams continues to produce, and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+129 at BAL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle. For 2026, they are off to a 122-162 start for -4.11 units. After losing about 14 units over the seven weeks, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, its usual territory.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+221 at PHI)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%. The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 59-35 for -18.85 units, ROI -20.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-276 vs. WSH), NY YANKEES (-199 vs. STL), LA DODGERS (-219 at CHC), TEXAS (-194 vs. SF)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 28-18 start for -13.16 units, and an ROI of -28.6%.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-199 vs. STL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce-back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 233-280 for -20.20 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 42-33, +13.99 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+129 at BAL), NY METS (+129 at CLE), SAN FRANCISCO (+159 at TEX), SAN DIEGO (+100 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 143-176 start for -25 units (ROI -7.8%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 58-81 for -22.39 units and a solid ROI of -16.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – ST LOUIS (+163 at NYY)
3 games – MIAMI (+124 at ATL), DETROIT (+112 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 114-134 for -5.25 units. However, it has lost -18.55 units over the last month.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+221 at PHI), ATHLETICS (+110 at CIN), KANSAS CITY (+123 vs. MIN), TEXAS (-194 vs. SF)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 508-407 for +41.77 units and an ROI of 4.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-136 vs. CWS), MIAMI (+124 at ATL), ATLANTA (-149 vs. MIA), DETROIT (+112 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 439-384 but for -102.52 units and an ROI of -12.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-136 vs. CWS), KANSAS CITY (+123 vs. MIN)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 460-407 record for +45.90 units and an ROI of 5.3% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+113 at BOS), DETROIT (+112 at SEA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2,178-2,055 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -263.76 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+113 at BOS), CINCINNATI (-136 vs. ATH), DETROIT (+112 at SEA), ST LOUIS (+163 at NYY), CHICAGO CUBS (+178 vs. LAD), TAMPA BAY (-167 at COL), COLORADO (+138 vs. TB)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,229-2,794 (44.4%) for -256.25 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+113 at CIN), MIAMI (+124 at ATL), NY METS (+129 at CLE), SAN DIEGO (+101 at AZ)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 664-560 (54.2%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +12.88 units, for an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-156 vs. LAA), HOUSTON (-131 vs. TOR), MILWAUKEE (-149 vs. PIT)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 396-198 (66.7%) for +59.37 units and an ROI of 10%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-136 vs. CWS), NY YANKEES (-199 vs. STL)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ home runs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 68-45-5 (60.2%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 38-18 Over streak in the last 56).
System Match (PLAY OVER): STL-NYY (o/u at 8.5)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 111-159 SU (-22.62 units, ROI: -8.4%) as underdogs in the follow-up game since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+163 at NYY)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a 199-240 SU record for +35.71 units and an ROI of 8.1% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+138 vs. TB)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), UNDERDOGS between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 236-277 SU but for +43.37 units (ROI: 8.5%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+138 vs. TB)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams on 6+ game losing streaks playing in less-competitive divisional games (-150 or more favorite/+150 or more underdog) have had their totals go Over at a 67-50-8 (57.3%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-PHI (o/u at 9)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 322-336 run (+7.91 units, ROI: 1.2%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+221 at PHI), TEXAS (-194 vs. SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in extending winning streaks are typically those that don’t score many runs. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 203-162 (+18.18 units, ROI: 5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-136 vs. CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 258-174 in their last 432 tries (+35.39 units, ROI: 8.2%).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-136 vs. CWS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 471-457 for +15.84 units, good for +1.7% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: WASHINGTON +221 (+45 diff), CHICAGO CUBS +178 (+40), ST LOUIS +163 (+33), SAN FRANCISCO +159 (+27), KANSAS CITY +123 (+10)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ARIZONA -120 (+35 diff), CINCINNATI -132 (+24), MILWAUKEE -149 (+19), SEATTLE -135 (+16), ATLANTA -149 (+14)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider that when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 111-85 for +15.85 units and an ROI of 8.1%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: SD-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.9)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) WASHINGTON (55-59) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (60-53)
Trend: WSH is 38-19 (+13.94 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at PHI)
Trend: Over the total is 17-5 (+11.75 units) when starter Jesus Luzardo is at home and faces opponents with a <= 0.540 win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-PHI (o/u at 9)
(953) MIAMI (58-55) at (954) ATLANTA (67-45)
Trend: Over the total is 31-22-3 (+6.80 units) in MIA road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-ATL (o/u at 9)
(957) LOS ANGELES-NL (69-44) at (958) CHICAGO-NL (64-49)
Trend: Tarik Skubal’s teams are 27-12 (+6.72 units) in his last 39 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-219 at CHC)
(959) SAN DIEGO (58-55) at (960) ARIZONA (60-53)
Trend: AZ is 13-3 (+9.87 units) in Eduardo Rodriguez’s last 16 home starts
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-120 vs. SD)
(961) LOS ANGELES-AL (43-69) at (962) BALTIMORE (54-58)
Trend: Grayson Rodriguez’s teams are 21-7 (+13.11 units) in his last 28 starts against below .500 opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+129 at BAL)
(965) MINNESOTA (56-57) at (966) KANSAS CITY (46-67)
Trend: MIN is 24-8 (+10.45 units) vs. teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-149 at KC)
(969) DETROIT (54-58) at (970) SEATTLE (55-58)
Trend: SEA is 21-35 (-12.34 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs. DET)
(971) NEW YORK-NL (47-66) at (972) CLEVELAND (57-56)
Trend: CLE is 13-7 (+3.71 units) when favored with starter Joey Cantillo in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-156 vs. NYM)
(973) ATHLETICS (45-67) at (974) CINCINNATI (53-58)
Trend: Brady Singer’s teams are 10-12 (-8.18 units) in his last 22 starts as a favorite in the -135 to -175 line range
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-136 vs. ATH)
(977) SAN FRANCISCO (48-65) at (978) TEXAS (55-58)
Trend: SF is 22-38 (-14.00 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+159 at TEX)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore’s teams are 10-18 (-13.82 units) in home games vs. teams with losing records in L3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-194 vs. SF)
Trend: Under the total is 9-3-1 (+5.60 units) when starter MacKenzie Gore is a larger home favorite of -140 or higher since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-TEX (o/u at 8)
(979) TAMPA BAY (66-46) at (980) COLORADO (45-68)
Trend: TB is 48-37 (+24.62 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 at COL)
Trend: Under the total is 14-5 (+8.50 units) in Freddy Peralta’s last 19 road starts versus NL teams within line range of -300 to +112 since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-COL (o/u at 11)
Top head-to-head series trends
Series #4: Detroit at Seattle, Tue 8/4-Thu 8/6
Trend: UNDERDOGS are on an 18-7 (72%, +16.33 units) surge in SEA-DET series
— The ROI on this trend is 65.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+112 at SEA)
Trend: Under the total is 9-2 (81.8%, +6.80 units) in the last 11 matchups between SEA and DET in Seattle
— The ROI on this trend is 61.8%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-SEA (o/u at 7.5)
Series #9: Minnesota at Kansas City, Tue 8/4-Thu 8/6
Trend: HOME TEAMS in the Royals-Twins AL Central rivalry are on a 43-18 (70.5%, +22.56 units) run in head-to-head play
— The ROI on this trend is 37%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+123 vs. MIN)
Series #25: LA Angels at Baltimore, Tue 8/4-Thu 8/6
Trend: BALTIMORE has won 23 of the last 31 games (74.2%, +14.95 units) against LA Angels
— The ROI on this trend is 48.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-156 vs. LAA)
Series #27: Chicago White Sox at Boston, Tue 8/4-Thu 8/6
Trend: Under the total is 12-4 (75%, +7.54 units) in the last 16 games of CWS-BOS in Boston
— The ROI on this trend is 47.1%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-BOS (o/u at 9)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 unnits and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, ATHLETICS, NY YANKEES, TEXAS, TAMPA BAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-CHC
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
MIAMI
LETDOWN after series vs. NY METS: 13-22 (37.1%) -7.28 units, ROI: -20.8%
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+124 at ATL)
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