Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Scott Ehlers handicaps the Tuesday, February 3 racing card at Turf Paradise, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Ellie Moore (Seventh race)
Seventh Race
1. Ellie Moore
2. Kinky Moon
3. Ride Elbow Ranch
ELLIE MOORE is just better on the grass and that is that. All of those Louisiana Downs turf tries fit here. Some horses just don’t like the tight turns at Delta, and maybe this mare is one of them. We like that she ships in and runs. KINKY MOON wants to pass runners and gets good race flow. Yet to try this sod though. Works are just good. RIDE ELBOW RANCH has speed, but so do a few others. There are more than a few that could be interesting in the front end in this race. Perhaps this outside post actually forces a stalking trip. That would certainly be best. This filly has won on this sod before and now drops in class.
Here are Scott’s thoughts on the other seven races on Monday’s Turf Paradise card.
First Race
1. Cha Chings Chick
2. Im Apollitcal Two
3. Lewie Jones
Quarter horses.
Second Race
1. Heat Commander
2. One Apolitical Queen
3. Block N Tell
Quarter horses.
Third Race
1. Goodfella
2. Jimmy B
3. Rowan August
GOODFELLA is a bit unlucky to catch a race that is good for the level. This gelding will still go favored due to just missing versus winners last out. Second time on this sod is almost unfair. Sure, this guy has a penchant for less, but he has never seen a field like this, even if good for the level. JIMMY B is bred to love the green and routing with his Tomlinsons of 342/346. His return try was fine, and now he draws the rail with speed in tow. An early breather would be something this guy has never gotten before. Perhaps he forgets to stop? As long as our top pick stays in then everyone is a good price. ROWAN AUGUST was denied a clean trip last out all while facing winners. This colt puts three races together and returns to maidens.
Fourth Race
1. Jersey Sunset
2. Squeeze the Day
3. Big Pop
JERSEY SUNSET might be the value. She just won at 35-1 and got a Beyer top in the process. She has a pair of recent works that are sharp. What if this mare doesn’t bounce off her most recent? Many will think that effort is a fluke, so the price will entice again. A better break will help and notice that this mare started dead last in her most recent. Of course, win rider stays put. SQUEEZE THE DAY is feeling great and now puts three races together. She saves her best for this dirt and keeps her regular rider. BIG POP is one of two in here for Diodoro, but this one gets more time between starts. That recent work was 2nd best of 16 and might tip hand on whether this mare can move forward or not.
Fifth Race
1. Cestrand
2. Shanghai Barbie
3. Kaely’s Candy
CESTRAND is feeling good and has speed. Where is the other speed? Exactly. A stumbling start certainly did not help matters only two back. Being stuck between foes in her most recent isn’t a good place to be either. Last chance for a good price? SHANGHAI BARBIE just missed two back and now returns to that distance. This mare gets another soft pace to chase. KAELY’S CANDY actually passed runners in her most recent. Form cycle hints at better. This mare is a 9YO that is making only her 10th start. Have you noticed yet that she is still a maiden? That helps the price for sure, and she certainly out ran her odds in her most recent.
Sixth Race
1. Trydent
2. Poco Yo
3. Smile Dont Wink
TRYDENT puts races together for the first time, and at this level, that might mean more. He has speed, draws fine, and keeps Morales. There are no world beaters in this race. POCO YO is another that has speed. He just missed last out and will therefore go favored today. His figs are going in the right direction and he does like a shortened sprint. SMILE DONT WINK is yet another with some speed. He draws outside everyone. Now is the perfect time for this guy to sit just off the speeds and trip out best. Lopez knows this guy well and he is a beaten favorite in his most recent (horse not jockey).
Eighth Race
1. Bango Gal
2. It Happens
3. Max’s Maxine
BANGO GAL took 14 starts to break her maiden, but what if she got a taste of winning and liked it? These types often face first-time winners and outrun their odds. She draws best today and picks up Cruz who is 16% for this barn. IT HAPPENS does have some upside. Second time here should help. She tries this level for the second time and horses often improve the second time they do anything. MAX’S MAXINE has outrun her odds in her last four starts, when 2nd in all of them. She puts three races together and has an even running style that might work well going 6 1/2 furlongs. ROCKBAR exits a key race where 4 of 9 returned to win with figs of 67, 58, 49, and 51.
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