Daily Racing Form handicappers Gino Buccola and David Aragona preview the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky.
Saturday’s Jenny Wiley Stakes goes as Race 9 on an 11-race card, with a $650,000 purse and a 5:16 p.m. Eastern post time. The handicappers split on the top pick – Buccola goes with No. 8 Destino d’Oro and Aragona with No. 1 Expensive Queen – and neither puts the 5-2 morning-line favorite, No. 7 Lush Lips, on top.
Buccola’s top pick: No. 8 Destino d’Oro
Destino d’Oro, trained by Brad Cox, has put together three strong consecutive victories heading into this spot and enters with an edge in current form over several rivals coming off extended layoffs. Buccola acknowledges this is a step up in class but points to her sharpness as the deciding factor.
“I think she’s just in great form right now,” Buccola says. “She has some of that recent form when you look at horses like Segesta or Dynamic Pricing, who will probably be similar prices and top contenders. They have not raced recently.”
The key moment in her most recent win, a nose victory in the Hillsborough Stakes, came when she was forced to steady behind a tiring rival at a critical point in the race and still found a way to win. Aragona watched the replay and agreed her form is genuine. “Even though she only got the job done by a nose, she was much the best,” he says. “She’s doing really well right now, and if any pace develops, you know she’s going to be coming at the end.”
Aragona’s top pick: No. 1 Expensive Queen
Expensive Queen is trained by Brendan Walsh, has won both starts since returning from a lengthy layoff, and enters on the back of an open-lengths victory over Medoro at Fair Grounds. Aragona puts her on top, citing her sharp recent form and a favorable post.
“Just the fact that he’s running her in this race against Lush Lips feels like a good sign,” Aragona says of Walsh, who also saddles the favorite. “She has been in great form in her recent starts. She drew well for this race. She doesn’t have to be that far back.”
Buccola elaborated on her trajectory. Coming off a hoof issue that forced connections to shelve her campaign last year – which included a disappointing effort in California – she has been a different horse in both starts since returning. Her Fair Grounds win was particularly striking – she was two to three wide most of the way around before Luis Saez turned her loose at the top of the stretch, and she drew away.
“It’s a big step up in class,” Buccola says, “but she is razor sharp right now and I would not dismiss her chances.”
The favorite: No. 7 Lush Lips
Lush Lips, the 5-2 morning-line favorite trained by Walsh, enters looking for her fourth consecutive victory and brings a record of nine top-two finishes in 12 career starts. She won the Grade 1 Q Ellizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland last fall and most recently turned back a slow-pace setup in the Honey Fox on Feb. 28, winning more comfortably than the race appeared in real time.
Aragona sees her as the horse to beat but has some reservations. “I feel like she’s maybe a little dressed up,” he says, “but she definitely is the horse to beat given that overall consistency.”
He notes that in the QE II she benefited from a perfect trip – forwardly placed behind a slow pace – and that her recent competition in the Honey Fox was not as strong as the field she now faces. Buccola agrees she merits respect but questions whether she’ll be as sharp as the horses with more recent form.
The handicappers’ verdict
Gino Buccola’s picks
No. 8 Destino d’Oro
No. 7 Lush Lips
No. 10 Segesta
David Aragona’s picks
No. 1 Expensive Queen
No. 10 Segesta
No. 7 Lush Lips
Watch for more thoughts on this race from Gino and David:
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
For complete Derby Watch Top 20 rankings, visit DRF.com – Derby Watch analyzes top Kentucky Derby contenders each week. For odds, past performances and expert picks, visit DRF.com
Put yourself in position to win big this year with DRF’s Kentucky Derby Package. Top data and trusted picks all in one place.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
