Keeneland Picks for Saturday, April 19 from Mike Somich:
We are now just two weeks away from the Kentucky Derby, so the preps are now in the rearview mirror, but fear not, we still have some great racing action to bet on!
Elkhorn Stakes, Keeneland, Race #9
I love a race when I am against the favorite, and that is the case here. I respect #6 Limited Liability, who has hit the board in five straight races. The issue is he has won just once since April 2023 and that was in a two-mile race at Kentucky Downs. He is not a horse I would try to fade in the Trifecta, but one I am happy to play against to win.
Trainer Cherie DeVaux enters two here. I prefer the #1 Rebel Red, who enters the race off a middling run in his seasonal debut. That was a wonky race won by an 86-1 shot who took the field gate to wire while Rebel Red was stuck wide. I expect improvement second off the layoff. A handful of his 4-year-old races put him right in the mix here. He’s bred to love the one mile and a half distance and set his career high number in the longest race he has run to date.
DeVaux’s other entry, #9 Missed the Cut, is also a player here. He will run second off the layoff as well and had a rough beginning in his last start, which caused him to be further off the pace than normal. After trying to run with the best on the dirt, he has seen a resurgence since moving back to the turf and has multiple races that make him a player.
#2 Grand Sonata is nothing if not consistent. This will be his 9th straight graded stakes effort, including a Grade 2 win at a mile and a half. Today’s field is quite a bit easier than the majority of the fields he faced last year. The trip should be a good one up close to the pace.
Top 4: 1-2-9-6
The Bet – $50 to Win #1
$120,000N1X Allowance, Keeneland, Race #11
This is a phenomenal spot for #7 Rothschild, who spent all of last year taking on stakes company. He was in the Tim Yakteen barn then, which does not specialize in stakes horses on the turf and switched to the James Toner barn during the winter. That’s a nice upgrade from a trainer perspective. In his seasonal and barn debut, he ran a very good second at Gulfstream Park, just missing the win by a neck. He has some early speed, which should keep him in the race and the kick to win it once they turn for home. The price is right at 9/2 as well.
Right to his outside is #8 Then, who is a lightly raced 4-year-old from super-sire Not This Time. He’s yet to win on the turf, breaking his maiden over Gulfstream’s synthetic course, but has yet to run poorly in his three turf efforts. He has been working lights out up to this race, but the price, your favorite at 7/2, does give me some pause.
#2 English Chunnel enters off a maiden breaking score at Fair Grounds, so he is going to take a steep step up in class. That being said, he has improved every time he has run on the turf and, with just five races under his belt, it’s logical to expect that trend to continue.
#9 Askari is an interesting price option at 10-1. After back-to-back turf efforts to start his career, which included a win, he has yet to return to the grass. His race two back over the synthetic would be tough against this field.
Top 4 – 7-8-2-9
The Bet – $50 Win #7
Spot Bets:
Keeneland Race #8 – $50 Exacta 5-9
Keeneland Race #6 – $50 Exacta 3-1
