Keeneland Picks for Tuesday, April 8 from Mike Somich:
Rarely do we get a Tuesday horse racing article, but today’s card from Keeneland is more than worth it! Not only does it feature the final major prep for the Kentucky Derby likely punching two tickets, but you also have an additional four graded stakes on the card!
The Blue Grass, Keeneland, Race #10
The final Derby prep features a group that is looking to prove themselves with seven headed to the post. The favorite is #1 River Thames, who we last saw getting run down by Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth. He will be looking for a similar trip today with a different result. River Thames is one of three horses who will be forwardly placed, but he does not need the lead, which means he projects to get a great trip from the rail. The added distance is a concern, but of the shorter prices, he has the least to prove.
One with a lot to prove is #5 East Avenue. The post-time favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile returned to the races in 2025 at Fair Grounds and laid an egg. He did not get the lead that day, and Magnitude ripped his heart out on the far turn, but it would have been nice for him to at least contend to hit the board instead of losing by 22 lengths. The talent is here, and he won over the track at two. A return to form would make him the most dangerous of the bunch.
#4 Owen Almighty headed to Keeneland from the Tampa Bay circuit after notching a win in the Tampa Bay Derby. He is a need-the-lead type, so outbreaking and beating East Avenue into the first turn will be key. John Hancock, who he lost to, disappointed in his most recent effort, which makes me question his ability to win this race.
#3 Burnham Square won the Holy Bull at Gulfstream over Tappan Street, which now looks much better after the latter won the Florida Derby. He should get pace to chase and enjoy the added distance, but will need to rebound off a subpar effort in the Fountain of Youth. Since I have reservations about all the short prices in this race,
I’ll swing for the fences and put #7 Admiral Dennis on top at 20-1. He needs to run the best race of his life to win, but the Rebel effort was much better than it looks on paper, and he is another one who should benefit from a decent pace and additional distance. In a field of question marks, I would also rather take the horse at 20-1 instead of 5/2
Top 4 – 7-1-3-5
The Bet: $20 to Win #7, $5 Trifecta Box 1,3,7
Commonwealth Stakes, Keeneland, Race #7
Earlier on the card, the Commonwealth Stakes has sprinters going a tricky seven furlong distance. I’ll key in on #6 Hoist The Gold here, who has done some of his best running here at Keeneland, where he has one win and two seconds in three starts. He has also hit the board in six of eight efforts at the distance while running against elite competition. He is quick early, but does not need the lead, so expect a nice staking trip before he kicks it into gear turning for home.
#10 Extra Anejo was supposed to be a Derby contender before injuries sidelined him during his three-year-old season. What he has turned into is a top-notch sprinter with two wins at seven furlongs. One of those came here at Keeneland on debut, so we know he enjoys the surface and, like Hoist the Gold, he is quick, but does not need the lead. You could do worse than playing him if the morning line price of 8-1 holds.
The morning line favorite is #2 Montalcino, who is just plain fast for trainer Cherie DeVaux. He will be flying early and hoping to hold late. He’s two for two at the distance and has won at Keeneland, but this will be his first stakes effort. Do not accept too short of a price.
#11 Whatchatalkinabout is another horse who is stepping up in class. To this point in his career, he has only run against New York-bred horses. This is a big class test. At his morning line of 4-1, it is hard to endorse a horse who is jumping up this many levels, but Wesley Ward loves Keeneland. If he floats up to the 10-1 range, I would become a lot more intrigued.
Top 4 – 6-10-2-11
The Bet – $50 Win #6
Spot Bets
Keeneland Race #9 – $50 Win #10
Keeneland Race #8 – $50 Win #7
