Kentucky Derby Draw Breakdown

Kentucky Derby Draw Breakdown:

Each year, the post position draw for the Kentucky Derby garners more attention than any other race and it is fitting. We will not see 20 horses break from the gate again until the run for the roses next year and where you are positioned can make or break a race. Before we jump into the winners and losers, let’s take a look at the past results for each post.

One caveat to these numbers: the inside posts (1-4), amassed much of their numbers before we saw a full 20-horse field. The worst post is the #1, we have not seen a winner there in 28 years, and it’s been close to a decade since a horse has finished in the top 3. Two anomalies are the 6 and 17 post. Being between #5 and #10 is widely considered to be the best starting position. The #6’s 2%-win rate has more to do with the horses who have broken from that gate than the post. The dreaded #17 is still looking for its first win. While it is not a good post, I would argue it has yet to produce a winner due to variance rather than it being a death trap.  

Who lost the draw?

The speed, all the speed! In what was expected to be a pace-less Derby just six weeks ago, now we are almost guaranteed to have quick early fractions due to the additions of Owen Almighty and East Avenue. Then American Promise blitzed a lightning-fast workout, tipping his hand that he wanted the front, and then this draw happened. When you are speed on the inside or the outside, you must break with your hair on fire to go and get the lead if you want any chance of clearing the field. 

The first thing I noticed when the draw was finished was where the speed was positioned. The #1 Citizen Bull, #2 Neoequos, #5 American Promise and #20 Owen Almighty all need to blast out of the gate to get in the position they want. Add to that you have #12 East Avenue in the middle of the pack ensures you have speed from all three levels (inside, middle and outside) and this sets up to be an extremely fast pace. #4 Rodriguez, stablemate of Citizen Bull, exiting the Derby on Thursday may lighten the load on the pace, but it is doubtful without more defections. 

Due to the abundance of speed and now the draw, I am tossing all of these horses from my pool of possible winners. It would take a herculean-like effort to be able to clear this field and hold off the closers to win. One of them may stay on to hit the Superfecta, we saw Two Phils do this in 2023 while being close to a fast pace, but even that is a big ask.

Who won the break?

It almost seems unfair, but the clear winner was the favorite, Journalism. Not only does he get one of the most desired post positions on race day, he also has a clear trip advantage based on who is around him. There are four likely speed players to his inside and closers all around him. That means he should be able to get over toward the rail while being mid-pack during the early stages of the race. The biggest question mark with him will be field size, he has only faced more than four other horses once in his career, but this draw essentially shortens the number of horses that could bother him during the race. There will be 6-7 horses in front of him, but with the majority of the horses behind him and his ability to pick his route to the wire first, it’s not nearly as daunting as it could have been if he drew to the inside or outside.

Other winners

The obvious answer is the deep closers. With a hot pace, they have a better chance of the field coming back to them while they are hitting their best strides. Of this group, two horses stood out to me. 

#14 Tiztastic drew well to simply drop back and make a run. We saw in the Louisiana Derby his ability to fall back and fly home to a victory, but what stood out to me was his athleticism in doing so. He weaved in and out of horses while being able to change gears easily and not get himself blocked. That’s a valuable skill when coming from the back of twenty horses. Mage won this race by beating horses to holes two years ago, Tiztastic has similar attributes. 

#18 Sovereignty also is set up well to succeed coming from the back of the pack. The wide draw hurts him less than a stalking type and we have seen him devour ground last over this Churchill Downs track before. 

I wanted to call out #10 Grande as well, but unfortunately, he was scratched on Friday morning.