Kentucky Derby Picks for Saturday, May 2
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Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, Race #12
We’ve made it to the first Saturday in May! I’ll start out with the horse I’ve got on top, #12 Chief Wallabee, who won dominantly over #9 The Puma on debut, but has not been able to get his picture taken since. I would argue he was better than #6 Commandment in the Fountain of Youth and was then very green in the Florida Derby. Now Mott adds blinkers to try to keep the Chief focused on business. If it works, he’s the best in this field. I will be using both of the other Florida horses, The Puma and Commandment as well. I have all three in my top 4 in this race with the edge to The Puma over Commandment.
I’ll take a swing with #11 Incredibolt, who is a nice price at 20-1 for Riley Mott (Bill’s son), who is two for two over the Churchill dirt. He was too bad to believe in the Mucho Macho Man, but came back impressively in the Virginia Derby and should take another step forward off that race.
I’ve got some interest in #16 Further Ado as well. He was great at Keeneland last time out, but that may just be the track. He will have to improve here if you base his talent off non-Keeneland races. I considered using both the #8 So Happy and #14 Potente out of California, but I am not sure what trip either will get. Both want to attend the pace, and I expect it to be a quick one. For either to make an impact, they will have to adapt a new style, which makes it tough for me to back them.
I’ve yet to mention the favorite, #1 Renegade, who I was likely to be against before drawing the one post. Now with him on the rail, he is fair for me to leave off. He’s too short of a price, needs to take a decent step forward to win and now will need to get every break to be able to hit the board.
#7 Danon Bourbon will ship in from Japan in the attempt to be the first to win the Kentucky Derby. He is undefeated and very talented, so if you want to include him underneath, I would not talk you off of it. However, he is not someone I am going to include. This is a big time step up in class in a completely different environment than he is used to.
Top 4: 12-9-11-6-18-19-8-14
The Bets: $50 Win #12
$5 Exacta Box: 9,11,12
$5 Exacta: 12 / 6,9,11
$5 Tri: 9,12 / 6,9,11,12 / 6,9,11,12
$1 Superfecta: 9,12 / 6,9,11,12 / 6,9,11,12,18 / 6,9,11,12,18
