MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, May 2.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
2:10 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
Blue Jays starting pitcher Dylan Cease has been superb this season with a 2.87 ERA and 1.82 fielding independent, not allowing a single home run while recording 14.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Twins starting pitcher Connor Prielipp is making his third career MLB start, having gone nine innings with four runs allowed across his first two outings, and is backed by a bullpen that is 27th in ERA at 5.15.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -167)
4:05 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals
Nationals starting pitcher Foster Griffin has gotten off to a solid start to the season with a 2.67 ERA, but his 4.35 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed is concerning, especially in a game featuring two strong offenses. The Brewers entered the series fifth in scoring with over 5.3 runs per game, while the Nationals are second with nearly 5.5 runs per game. The Nationals bullpen ranks 24th in ERA at 4.90, while Brewers starting pitcher Kyle Harrison began the season strong with a 2.28 ERA, 11.4 strikeouts, and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -130 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -146 and Total 8.3)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics
Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi has gotten off to a tough start to the 2026 season, posting a 6.23 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 4.9 walks per nine innings allowed. Athletics starting pitcher Jacob Lopez has also struggled, with a 5.85 ERA while allowing 1.5 home runs and 7.7 walks per nine innings, but he was far more effective at home last season, with a 2.64 ERA compared to a 5.40 ERA on the road. He benefits from facing a Guardians lineup that entered the series 27th in run production with just over 3.8 runs per game.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline -124 (Greg’s Handicap: Athletics -148)
4:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starting pitcher Connelly Early has made just 10 career MLB starts but has been impressive with a 2.65 ERA, 10.1 strikeouts, and 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti has a 2.00 ERA in three starts this season, but a higher 3.69 fielding independent with 4.5 walks per nine innings is a concern, and he is backed by a bullpen that ranks last in the league in ERA at 6.63.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -136)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Phillies starting pitcher Andrew Painter has had a tough rookie season so far, posting a 5.25 ERA, and is backed by a lineup that ranks 28th in scoring with 3.8 runs per game. Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer owns both a 3.30 ERA and fielding independent with 9.9 strikeouts and 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -112 (Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -123)
7:15 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Dodgers starting pitcher Roki Sasaki has gotten off to a rough start to the season, posting a 6.35 ERA with a 7.18 fielding independent, allowing 2.8 home runs and 5.2 walks per nine innings. However, he is backed by a lineup that entered the series leading the league in road scoring with nearly 6.5 runs per game. Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy owns a 2.96 ERA but is pitching to a lot of contact with just 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings and a 4.27 fielding independent, allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Dodgers vs. Cardinals Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.2)
9:38 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels
Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean is off to an outstanding start to the season, posting a 2.55 ERA and 2.26 fielding independent through six starts with 11.5 strikeouts and just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces an Angels lineup that ranks 27th in scoring at home with 3.4 runs per game. Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers has a 4.28 ERA, but his 3.22 fielding independent with 9.6 strikeouts and 0.8 home runs per nine innings points toward improvement, and he faces a Mets offense that ranks 29th in scoring with 3.4 runs per game.
Pick: Mets vs. Angels Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.4)
9:40 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo has gotten off to a nice start to the season with a 2.63 ERA and 2.71 fielding independent, allowing just one home run in 37 2/3 innings across six starts. However, he is backed by a lineup that ranks last in road scoring with 2.6 runs per game and a bullpen that is 28th in ERA at 5.33. Mariners starting pitcher Emerson Hancock has a 2.86 ERA with just 1.6 walks per nine innings, and while his 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings and 4.60 fielding independent are concerns, the Royals’ inability to generate offense away from home helps his case.
Pick: Royals vs. Mariners Under 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 6.7)
