We’ve officially made it to Kentucky Derby weekend! Both the Friday and Saturday cards are absolutely loaded so we are going to take a little different approach on the weekly article. We are going to deep dive the Kentucky Oaks, but jump around after that and walk through some of my favorite plays on the card!
Kentucky Oaks, Churchill Downs, Race #11
This years Kentucky Oaks is a great betting event. It’s a full field with five horses between 7/2 and 5-1 on the morning line. The favorite, and a horse that we’ve played twice in this column, #8 Tarifa, was great in both of her wins at Fairgrounds leading up to this start. She’s distanced herself as the best horse in the Cox barn and he’s won this race twice. She has tactical speed and drew well which projects for another good trip. Two horses that faced each other last time out drew the outside posts, #13 Just FYI and #14 Leslie’s Rose. Just FYI was the favorite that day, but Leslie’s Rose lived up to the hype and ran her best career race. If Leslie’s Rose improves off that performance, she could be a force in this race, but the post for both her and Just FYI will be an issue drawing the 13 and 14 respectively. Just FYI does have the chance to improve off the last since it is her second off the layoff, but the price is too short for me to back her in this spot. Both the #5 Thorpedo Anna and #6 Lemon Muffin also exit the same race where they were similarly prices. Thorpedo Anna prevailed that race taking a huge step forward in her first start as a 3-year-old. Her trainer Kenny McPeek has told anyone who will listen that she is ready to roll and will be loaded in this spot. Lemon Muffin offers an interesting price play here at 30-1 on the morning line. She did not run well in the Fantasy when she was 5-1, but her trainer D Wayne Lukas said to expect much better today.
Picks – 8-5-14-6
Bets –
$50 Win #8
$5 Trifecta 8 / 5,6,14 / 5,6,14
$80k Optional Claimer, Churchill Downs, Race #4
The rain washed this one off the turf, but there is still some value! I like the #3 Elysian Fields to win the race, but have two prices underneath that make sense now we are on the dirt. #7 Paint Me Perfect, 201-1, is by super mud sire Munnings and has been working well over the dirt. #13 Into Disco, 15-1,probably prefers this race is over dirt since she’s had more success there.
$25 Exacta 3 / 7,13
La Troinne, Churchill Downs, Race #5
Breeders’ Cup champion #4 Idiomatic returns to the track and looks like she will be able to control the pace and win as the 6/5 favorite. Let’s try to add some value by playing a cold exacta. #7 Dorth Vader ran well as a 3-year-old and returns to the track in a spot where she should be the lone horse stalking Idiomatic. She has been training well heading into this race and the exacta should pay close to 10-1 with other horse garnering more interest than her.
$50 Exacta 4 – 7
The Unbridled Song, Churchill Downs, Race #6
I love playing turf sprints. You generally get larger fields with a higher variance then longer races. Let’s take a swing in this one with #3 Stone Silent who has won three straight races at Gulfstream Park. She has speed, but does not need the lead to win and that should set her up perfectly to take the lead late in this race.
$50 Win #3
