Lukas Classic 2025
The Lukas Classic Stakes is a little more special, but also a little more bittersweet, as this weekend’s Grade 2 race at Churchill Downs marks the first version since D. Wayne Lukas passed away in June at the age of 89. This race was renamed in his honor in 2015 and surely there will be something special to honor him this week.
A $500,000 purse is on the line here for a seven field of 3-year-olds and up, headlined by 2024 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness Stakes runner-up Mystik Dan.
This one will be Race 10 in your Saturday Churchill Downs program with post time expected to be 5:29 p.m. ET under the twin spires.
Lukas Classic Stakes 2025 Entries, Horses, Jockeys, and Trainers:
| Post | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
| 1 | Willy D’s | L. Saez | M. Maker | 6-1 |
| 2 | Hit Show | F. Geroux | B. Cox | 7/2 |
| 3 | Rattle N Roll | J. Leparoux | K. McPeek | 5-1 |
| 4 | Prince of Power | E. Esquivel | J. Esquivel | 30-1 |
| 5 | Mystik Dan | TBD | K. McPeek | 5/2 |
| 6 | Disarm | I. Ortiz Jr. | S. Asmussen | 4-1 |
| 7 | Banishing | T. Gaffaline | D. Jacobson | 3-1 |
This is a tough week for Kenny McPeek, as regular Mystik Dan and Thorpedo Anna rider Brian Hernandez is out for a while after suffering broken ribs and other injuries in a spill. What also makes it tough is that there are some big races across the country at Santa Anita, with some riding in the Goodwood Stakes, and at Aqueduct, so the top riders are split up geographically. McPeek said that if there are no scratches, Francisco Arrieta will get the mount.
That certainly adds a wrinkle in this race, as Mystik Dan is the favorite, but Hit Show and Banishing are not far behind on the odds board. Frankly, aside from Prince of Power, everything is very compressed for the Lukas Classic.
Here are some thoughts on each horse at the odds at time of publish:
1. Willy D’s (6-1; Saez/Maker): Perhaps the “scratch” that McPeek was looking for (and hoping for) was that Mike Maker would take Willy D’s up to Aqueduct to run in the Woodward. That would free up Luis Saez to take the mount on Mystik Dan, but it seems Maker will keep his 4-year-old gelding in Louisville. For being a 4-year-old, the son of Lookin At Lucky and Boston Mine has been busy with 22 career starts, including five wins.
In his graded stakes debut, the G2 Charles Town Classic five weeks ago, he ran second over a mile and an eighth, finishing behind Banishing by two and a quarter. This field is arguably better, but he has hit the board in all five races since Maker took over from Greg Compton in March.
2. Hit Show (7/2; Geroux/Cox): The 5-year-old son of Candy Ride and Actress, whose father was Tapit, is ready to run it back in this race again. With over $8.5 million in career earnings, Hit Show is vying to become the first back-to-back champion of the Lukas Classic. It was money rider Florent Geroux for Brad Cox in last year’s race and it’s the same again here.
It has been a mammoth year for Hit Show, winning the Louisiana Stakes to start the year, followed by a win in the Dubai World Cup in April and a win last time out in the West Virginia Governor’s Stakes. In between, though, he ran third in the Santa Anita Handicap and fifth in the Stephen Foster after returning stateside. It is hard to ignore six wins in his last nine races, but the two fifths and a third speckled in there are a concern.
3. Rattle N Roll (5-1; Leparoux/McPeek): The first of two McPeek entries, as he’ll keep Julien Leparoux on Rattle N Roll as opposed to putting him on Mystik Dan. The 6-year-old son of Connect and Jazz Tune hasn’t raced since April, as he spent the winter in the Middle East. His last race in the U.S. was at Churchill Downs and he won the Clark Stakes, but he’s finished third and fourth in two Lukas Classic starts.
He, too, ran in the Dubai World Cup, but never fired, finishing eighth. McPeek is hoping that a return to Louisville is the right move, as Rattle N Roll has only finished worse than third once in nine starts at Churchill Downs.
4. Prince of Power (30-1: Esquivel/Esquivel): Emmanuel Esquivel will ride for Jesus Esquivel here, as Prince of Power runs in a graded stakes for just the third type. His two previous efforts came this year at Keeneland, finishing seventh in the Commonwealth and sixth in the Ben Ali. In other words, this is about the only horse you can toss from this field.
5. Mystik Dan (5/2; likely F. Arrieta/McPeek): Since winning the Kentucky Derby, Mystik Dan’s only other win came in the Blame Stakes. He’s run in top-tier fields, including the Stephen Foster and Arlington Million, so it could be the competition. But, it could also be a horse that peaked at the right time regressing to the mean. Since failing to hit the board at Colonial Downs, Mystik Dan’s workouts have been quite good and McPeek has to mostly like where he is, especially back on dirt.
But, how will Mystik Dan feel with a new rider aboard? There have only been two races out of 15 without Brian Hernandez Jr. in the irons. They were both at Oaklawn, with Francisco Arrieta getting the ride back in May in the Lake Ouachita Stakes and the other being the listed Smarty Jones Stakes, where Julien Leparoux finished fifth. McPeek must have liked Arrieta’s ride and it did set Mystik Dan up for that Blame Stakes win 28 days later.
6. Disarm (4-1; I. Ortiz/Asmussen): Disarm qualifies as one of the more frustrating race horses in the country. Irad Ortiz Jr. gets the ride here, as this horse has run in 13 graded stakes races with just one win – the Matt Winn Stakes at Ellis Park in June 2023. Two of his other wins are in allowance races and the other was his maiden in the late summer of 2022.
The connections are fantastic with Asmussen and Winchell Thoroughbreds. He’s the son of Gun Runner and Easy Tap, and the grandson of Tapit. Yet we’re talking about a horse with 18 starts and less than $1.6 million in earnings, despite some big-ticket races. Maybe Ortiz will make the difference, as Joel Rosario had the last two rides and Keith Asmussen had the two prior to that. Tyler Gaffalione was aboard in last year’s fourth-place finish in the Lukas Classic.
7. Banishing (3-1; Gaffalione/Jacobson): Speaking of Gaffalione, he gets the ride on Banishing from the far outside post for David Jacobson, Lawrence Roman, and Godolphin. The son of Ghostzapper and Dowager is an old 5-year-old, born in March 2020, right before COVID shut down the world. He’s off of wins in the Charles Town Classic and Jeff Hall Memorial Stakes and has finished lower than second just once in the past calendar year over 13 starts.
Historically, though, Banishing has been more of a sprinter when getting to the winner’s circle. His Charles Town Classic win was his first over a mile in almost two years. Ghostzapper was also an elite sprinter, but did win twice at 1 ⅛ miles and once at 1 ¼ before his career was cut short. Gaffalione has had each of the last two winning rides after Banishing had had a variety of different jocks.
Lukas Classic Stakes Predictions
I’m on Hit Show here. Banishing may very well be the best horse in this race and be leading coming into the final stretch, but the sprinter background is worrisome enough to me that I think he’ll run out of gas on the tough Churchill track on a hot day. Mystik Dan loves this race track and could very well win with Arrieta in the mount, but the price relative to the results isn’t enough for me. The long layoff for Rattle N Roll is tough to overlook as well.
Prediction: 2-5-7-3
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