Nashville Derby 2025
The timing could not have been better for the opening of our new VSiN studio at The Mint Gaming Hall Kentucky Downs in Franklin, KY, because the Kentucky Downs meet is underway and the signature event is on Saturday with the Nashville Derby Invitational Stakes. A field of 12 will run on the European-style turf track in search of a piece of the $3.5 million* prize pool.
There are two Also Eligible entries, just in case we get a scratch or two for the 1 5/16-mile race. This is only a seven-day meet just north of the Tennessee border, but the huge prize amounts do entice some big, noteworthy fields. That is true of this race, which will be Race 10 on Saturday, August 30 with a 5:56 p.m. ET post time.
Nashville Derby Invitational Stakes 2025 Entries, Horses, Jockeys, and Trainers:
| Post | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
| 1 | Hill Road | T. Gaffalione | C. Brown | 6-1 |
| 2 | Test Score | M. Franco | G. Motion | 4-1 |
| 3 | King of Ashes | B. Curtis | B. Walsh | 30-1 |
| 4 | Tomasello | F. De La Cruz | M. Casse | 20-1 |
| 5 | Burnham Square | B. Hernandez | I. Wilkes | 6-1 |
| 6 | Simulate | J. Alvarado | W. Mott | 10-1 |
| 7 | Tiztastic | J. Rosario | S. Asmussen | 20-1 |
| 8 | Sandman | J. Ortiz | M. Casse | 5-1 |
| 9 | Noble Confessor | I. Ortiz Jr. | T. Pletcher | 20-1 |
| 10 | Maximum Promise | L. Saez | K. McPeek | 30-1 |
| 11 | Final Gambit | F. Geroux | B. Cox | 8-1 |
| 12 | Wimbledon Hawkeye | F. Dettori | J. Owen | 7/2 |
| AE | Iron Hand | E. Gonzalez | J. DeAngelo | |
| AE | Native Runner | B. Hernandez | K. McPeek |
This is a big field with some turf debuts, as the 3 and the 5 in front of a bunch of zeroes has encouraged a lot of trainers to take a shot in this race and others, even if their horses have no data points on the grass. One European invader is in the field in Wimbledon Hawkeye, as he’ll have the far outside post unless a scratch(es) pushes him inside a spot or two.
There are actually four Kentucky Derby runners here, as Hill Road, Burnham Square, Tiztastic, and Final Gambit. Burnham Square and Sandman are running on turf for the first time.
The distance is also a key factor for the majority of this field, so that will be part of the handicap.
Here are some thoughts on each horse at the odds at time of publish:
1. Hill Road (6-1; Gaffalione/Brown): Hill Road broke his maiden on turf, but then shifted to the dirt after failing to fire in his second race. The Peter Pan Stakes winner ran fifth in the Belmont Stakes and hit the board in third for the Jim Dandy, but the big prize pool pushed Chad Brown to bring the son of Quality Road and Exotic Notion back to the grass. Quality Road never ran on turf and never won at more than 1 ⅛ miles. I think he’s a bit underpriced here. It’ll be tough to get off the rail with a big field and the results just haven’t been there.
2. Test Score (4-1; Franco/Motion): Test Score may have the goods to win this race. He’s run exclusively on turf and has a G1 win in the Belmont Derby Invitational and the Transylvania Stakes. He’s hit the board in all five starts this season and eight of nine career starts. His longest distance was 1 3/16 miles last time out in the Saratoga Derby, finishing third behind World Beater and an Irish import in Juweller. That race was revenge for World Beater, who was second to Test Score in the Belmont Derby.
He was third in that last race with a career-best Equibase Speed Figure and finished a length behind the winner as the second favorite.
3. King of Ashes (30-1; Curtis/Walsh): The claim to fame for King of Ashes is finishing second to aforementioned World Beater in the Listed Audubon Stakes at Churchill back in May. His only win came in a maiden four races ago and it would take an extremely strong effort against a talented and bunched-up field to hit the board here. There were only eight horses in the Audubon and World Beater closed late for the win, at just 1 ⅛ miles.
4. Tomasello (20-1; De La Cruz/Casse): The first of two entries from the Mark Casse barn is the son of Authentic and Dakota Queen. He hasn’t run more than 1 ⅛ and the distance is a pretty big concern in this one, given that there are some good endurance horses and closers speckled across the field. A win last time out against a weak Ellis Park field may provide some optimism, but he’s a long shot for a reason.
5. Burnham Square (6-1; Hernandez/Wilkes): Interesting to see Brian Hernandez not aboard a Kenny McPeek entry here, as he has the mount for Ian Wilkes on Burnham Square. This is a complex horse to break down. The winner of the Holy Bull and Blue Grass finished ¾ of a length behind East Avenue in the four-horse Matt Winn Stakes prior to a very disappointing fifth in the Haskell.
This is the gelding’s dirt debut and Wilkes hasn’t been higher than a 13% trainer on turf since 2016. Father Liam’s Map was a good sprinter. Mare Linda was a G2 stakes winner on turf. This is a good horse. Can he be great on the grass?
6. Simulate (10-1; Alvarado/Mott): Can Bill Mott make it two huge weekends in a row? The winning trainer of the Travers Stakes for the first time in his career has a crack at an even bigger prize here. Simulate is pretty lightly-raced, with two starts last year and three starts this year, including a place finish in his graded stakes debut. That race – the Secretariat Stakes – was just one mile on the inner turf at Colonial Downs. This is an improving horse in pretty good form, but we have no data points at distance and this field is a step up to say the least.
7. Tiztastic (20-1; Rosario/Asmussen): Two wins on turf as a 2-year-old have not really translated to much as a 3-year-old. The Louisiana Derby win looks like more and more of an outlier by the day, as the last two turf starts have resulted in finishes of fifth and ninth and he’s only hit the board one other time this calendar year.
8. Sandman (5-1; J. Ortiz/Casse): The other Casse entry is the one with a bigger following on social media thanks to part-owner Griffin Johnson. Sandman’s prices in the Triple Crown races wound up lower than they should have been due to the influence of Johnson’s audience, as he documented what it was like to own the horse and the behind-the-scenes lead-up to the races. While I wouldn’t classify Sandman’s Arkansas Derby win in the same category as Tiztastic’s Louisiana Derby romp, it does look to be something of an outlier performance. He did run a decent third in the Preakness, but two of his three wins are at short distances and this is his turf debut.
9. Noble Confessor (20-1; I. Ortiz/Pletcher): The second offspring of Quality Road in this field, Noble Confessor has the connections with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons and Todd Pletcher in the barn. Maternal grandfather Noble Mission was a British-bred turf runner with several graded stakes wins, including two at 1 5/16 on tracks like this Kentucky Downs one. He won the G1 Champion Stakes at Royal Ascot in his final race.
Even though he ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year and finished sixth, he hasn’t really had many impressive finishes or entries. But, I can’t help but feel like he has a shot to hit the board here at a price. He’s been first and second in two races with Ortiz in the mount.
10. Maximum Promise (30-1; Saez/McPeek): Hernandez doesn’t have the ride for McPeek here, but he has a top jock in Luis Saez on Maximum Promise. The son of dominant dirt runner Maximum Security and Paixao, whose father was Scat Daddy, has an impressive bloodline and a good jockey/trainer combo, but the odds tell a story here. He’s only run twice on turf and finished fifth and 10th. He’s hit the board twice at Turfway Park on the synthetic surface, but that’s not what we have here.
11. Final Gambit (8-1; Geroux/Cox): Of the trainers in this field, Brad Cox has been one of the best on turf this season, posting a 23% win rate in just under 150 starts. He’s got a good, but not great, horse here in Final Gambit and a strong rider in his go-to guy, Florent Geroux. The son of Not This Time has failed to hit the board in four straight races, finishing behind Burnham Square in the Matt Winn, Test Score and others in the Belmont Derby, and Test Score again in the Saratoga Derby, as he was fifth in both turf runs at Saratoga. Like Maximum Promise, his best two runs have been wins at Turfway Park, so he’s probably not a factor here.
12. Wimbledon Hawkeye (7/2; Dettori/Owen): Pretty elite name, here, if we’re being honest. Frankie Dettori gets the mount on shipper Wimbledon Hawkeye, who comes stateside looking for a big pay day. He only has two wins in 11 career starts and a 6-0-3-1 resume this year. European turf horses tend to be very good when coming across the pond and he’s the favorite for a reason here, finishing ever so slightly behind Merchant in the G3 Gordon Stakes last time out and just behind El Cordobes in the Princess of Wales’s Stakes.
That G2 run won by El Cordobes is particularly interesting because he came to the U.S. and won the Sword Dancer Stakes against a pretty good field earlier this month for his first G1 win ever. Wimbledon Hawkeye started as a sprinter, but has held his own going further, finishing third at 1 5/16 and second in his last two starts at 1 ½ miles.
One other note here related to the asterisk on the prize purse. This event features an extra $1.5 million, but that is reserved for Kentucky-bred horses. Wimbledon Hawkeye is not one. Bellum Justum won this race last year as a British import ridden by Dettori.
AE. Iron Hand (Gonzalez/DeAngelo): Florida-bred Iron Hand would need a scratch to get in. He had a streak of four straight wins snapped in his first stakes race at Gulfstream in his first turf race after four wins on the synthetic surface. He hasn’t gone more than 1 1/16, so the distance is worrisome if he gets in.
AE. Native Runner (Hernandez/McPeek): Interestingly. Hernandez is slated to have the ride here for McPeek if there are multiple scratches. The son of the 2016 Jim Dandy Stakes winner Laoban is coming off of a terrible run in the Kentucky Downs Preview Nashville Derby, finishing dead last in a race won by Tomasello, who is a 20-1 shot in this race.
Nashville Derby Invitational Stakes Predictions
This should be an exciting race and an exciting meet. Our VSiN studio is mere yards from the track and is located in the brand-new Circa Sportsbook at The Mint Gaming Hall, so check all of that out if you’re attending this massive week of racing.
Anyway, I like Test Score to win here, with Wimbledon Hawkeye as a “must include” for exactas and trifectas, as he’s sure to be a factor. Simulate might be the horse I’m underrating a bit and will work him into my trifectas. Lastly, I can’t get Noble Confessor out of my mind thanks to his grandfather’s prowess on grass and will have a small win ticket on him as well for some long shot fun.
Prediction: 2-12-6-9
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