Pennsylvania Derby 2025
A massive weekend at Parx Racing features the Cotillion Stakes for the ladies and the Pennsylvania Derby for the boys. A field of 10 will look to take down the $1 million prize by finishing first over 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt track just outside of Philadelphia.
While this is a Grade 1 race by name and reputation, it is fair to wonder if we truly have a Grade 1 field, as Ed DeRosa from HRN pointed out how this year’s set of contenders has a small set of accomplishments, with just three graded stakes winners in the field and nobody has won a G1 race to this point. A lot of that does have to do with the domination of Journalism and Sovereignty, but let’s talk about what this race is instead of what it isn’t. One of the horses in the field will pick up a G1 win and have some momentum heading towards the Breeders’ Cup.
This one will be Race 14 in your Saturday Parx program with post time expected to be 6:00 p.m. ET.
Pennsylvania Derby 2025 Entries, Horses, Jockeys, and Trainers:
| Post | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
| 1 | So Sandy | K. Carmouche | C. DeVaux | 15-1 |
| 2 | Altobelli | A. Castillo | J. Nicholson Jr. | 50-1 |
| 3 | Magnitude | B. Curtis | S. Asmussen | 6-1 |
| 4 | David of Athens | T. Gaffalione | B. Walsh | 12-1 |
| 5 | Happily Delusional | P. Lopez | L. Linder Jr. | 30-1 |
| 6 | Goal Oriented | I. Ortiz Jr. | B. Baffert | 5/2 |
| 7 | Big Truzz | J. Castellano | B. Lynch | 10-1 |
| 8 | Baeza | H. Berrios | J. Shirreffs | 2-1 |
| 9 | Gosger | L. Saez | B. Walsh | 4-1 |
| 10 | Mo Plex | J. Ramos | J. Englehart | 12-1 |
Imagine the season Baeza would have had without some scratches in the Kentucky Derby that put the Also Eligible horse into the field, where he finished third. He would go on to finish third in the Belmont as well. He’s the slim favorite here over Goal Oriented with some strong connections and then Gosger, the runner-up in the Preakness and the Haskell.
Arguably the biggest storyline here has to do with the riders. Irad Ortiz Jr. hops on Goal Oriented for the first time, while Gosger has regular rider Luis Saez and Magnitude has normal jock Ben Curtis. Baeza was ridden by Flavien Prat in the two Triple Crown races and Hector Berrios in the Santa Anita Derby and Jim Dandy. Javier Castellano takes the mount for Big Truzz for the first time.
Here are some thoughts on each horse at the odds at time of publish:
1. So Sandy (15-1; Carmouche/DeVaux): The son of Omaha Beach and So Fancy has really leveled up of late, finishing second in the listed Curlin Stakes at Saratoga a couple months ago on the heels of two wins. The step up in class is likely too much here for Kendrick Carmouche to overcome, but Cherie DeVaux might cash some nice purses with this horse in the fall and next year as a 4-year-old. He’s been setting and pressing the pace with more success lately, but there’s probably too much pace for him here.
2. Altobelli (50-1; Castillo/Nicholson): A big bump in distance is the story here for the son of Authentic and True Elegance. With a mix of dirt, turf, and synthetic in his past results, he’s winless since March, running four times on dirt and two on turf. He also hasn’t run longer than 6 ½ furlongs.
3. Magnitude (6-1; Curtis/Asmussen): The lack of Grade 1-caliber racehorses might be just what Magnitude needs to score a massive win. He did win the Risen Star back in February, but a bone chip kept him out of action for nearly five months. When he returned, he won the listed Iowa Derby before finishing third over a mile and a quarter to Sovereignty and Bracket Buster in the Travers. The Not This Time colt has the chance to run out in front with the shorter trip to the rail. If Ben Curtis can get him to the front of the pack, his chances improve greatly.
4. David of Athens (12-1; Gaffalione/Walsh): The stakes debut for David of Athens comes here on the heels of a very impressive mile at Ellis Park. This is just his fourth start for Brendan Walsh and the third for Tyler Gaffalione, who has the two victories for the son of Nyquist and Athens Queen. Nyquist finished sixth in this race back in 2016, a race that would turn out to be his last. Athens Queen was more of a sprinter. Does that lead to questions about the bump in distance here? I think it could in a field of this caliber, at least relative to what he’s seen.
5. Happily Delusional (30-1; Lopez/Linder): The name probably says it all here, as the son of Flatter and Tattersail is like the stock cars that never win and wind up getting in the way. At least Happily Delusional can’t get lapped and there won’t be a caution to bunch up the field.
6. Goal Oriented (5/2; I. Ortiz/Baffert): Much like Brendan Walsh’s decision to point Gosger towards this race as opposed to the Travers, Bob Baffert’s calendar for Goal Oriented looked similar. Unraced as a 2-year-old, the son of Not This Time and Bizzy Caroline rolled to a maiden win at Santa Anita and an allowance win at Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby weekend. The performance was so impressive that Baffert and the connections put him in the Preakness Stakes just two weeks later. He ran a very admirable fourth behind Journalism, Gosger, and Sandman.
Now he gets another crack at Gosger, but doesn’t have to worry about Journalism. He ran third to Gosger in the Haskell after a two-month layoff. He has roughly another two-month layoff here. Do we see the bump in his speed numbers that will lead to a win? Baffert seems to know which horses to enter in this race. After all, he’s won it four times since 2014.
7. Big Truzz (10-1; Castellano/Lynch): Despite a career-best effort in the Ellis Park Derby, Tyler Gaffalione opted to ride David of Athens for Brendan Walsh. Brian Lynch has tabbed Javier Castellano for his maiden voyage atop Big Truzz, who dominated the one-mile listed stakes race last time out, but was not remotely a factor in the Indiana Derby back June at 1 1/16. The bloodline would suggest that distance is not a problem with father Justify, paternal grandfather Scat Daddy, and maternal grandfather Curlin. Castellano is a savvy veteran rider and the choice for Lynch, who should know his horse well.
8. Baeza (2-1; Berrios/Shirreffs): It really is hard not to like both Baeza and Gosger here, right? No Journalism. No Sovereignty. The right setup for the trip with speed out front and a path to stalk. And, yet, it is hard to be convinced that Baeza will get over the hump. He’s won once in seven starts, despite some excellent bloodlines and accomplished half-siblings. The son of McKinzie and Puca has two Triple Crown winners in his extended family. And his only career win is in a mile-long maiden special weight at Santa Anita on Valentine’s Day. Of course, in his four G1/G2 starts, he’s lost to Journalism, Sovereignty and Journalism, Sovereignty and Journalism, and Sovereignty again. If not now, when?
9. Gosger (4-1; Saez/Walsh): I’m not sure if horses have nightmares, but if they do, Gosger’s also involve Journalism. The son of Nyquist and Gloria S was barely bested by Journalism in both the Preakness and the Haskell. When Journalism isn’t in the field, Gosger has a win in the Lexington, broke his maiden at Gulfstream, and finished second in his only start as a 2-year-old.
Ironically, it was Irad Ortiz Jr. in the mount for his Lexington win. He’ll ride Goal Oriented instead, as Luis Saez gets the call again after the last two rides. What makes that more interesting, at least to me, is that Ortiz has the ride on Clicquot in the Cotillion Stakes for Walsh in the filly race preceding this one. I guess I’ll never fully understand the jockey/trainer/owner dynamic.
Nevertheless, like I said with Baffert and Goal Oriented, Walsh felt that the Pennsylvania Derby was the spot instead of the Haskell. That has to account for something and he’s well-rested, just like he was in his Lexington win.
10. Mo Plex (12-1; Ramos/Englehart): The expectation is that Magnitude will have challengers for the early lead and Mo Plex should be one of them. The Ohio Derby winner has five wins in nine starts and hasn’t finished worse than fourth. He handled the distance jump at Thistledown, but didn’t respond overly well with a fourth in the G2 Jim Dandy a month later. But, like Gosger and Goal Oriented, he’s a little more rested here. He probably won’t hit the board, but he’s going to be among those dictating the pace, so he’ll have his impact on this race.
Pennsylvania Derby Predictions
I’m going to trust Bob Baffert’s intuition and experience here. He shipped Goal Oriented up to Monmouth Park two months after the Preakness in hopes of pointing him towards this race with a big prize purse. Irad Ortiz Jr. might be a difference maker as well. Even though Goal Oriented is absolutely not Journalism or Sovereignty, Baeza needs to be good enough to win and I don’t know that he is. I’ll even take Gosger over him here, with Big Truzz to fill the super with the rider change to Javier Castellano.
Prediction: 6-9-8-7
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