Pimlico Picks for Friday, May 16 from Mike Somich:
It’s Preakness weekend. That means we are headed to Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland, for two days of great racing. After a week of rain, the weather is back in play on Friday and possibly on Saturday.
Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, Pimlico, Race #13
The second jewel in the Triple Crown for the ladies is always an interesting race. We often do not see the runners return from the Kentucky Oaks, and this year is no different, with a field of nine new shooters. #4 Runnin N Gunnin is installed as the morning line favorite and is a logical contender. She has improved as a three-year-old to allow her to get to this point. Her third-place finish last out in the Fantasy was the best race of her career, and she ran behind two Oaks horses, but it is also the only race that fits with this field. Her price is simply too short for me to put her on top.
To her inside, #3 Margie’s Intention is just slightly higher on the morning line at 3-1. She is switching to the Brad Cox barn for her first attempt at graded stakes company. All of her two-turn races make her a player in here, but all of those came in stakes races against Louisiana-bred horses. This is quite the step up.
#7 Reply offers a much better price on the morning line at 8-1 for local trainer Brittany Russell. She is also stepping up in class after a close second-place finish in the local prep, but she should love the added distance, and her father Curlin, who won the Preakness, is one of the best off-track sires. The biggest issue is that she will be coming from the back, so she could be hindered by a slow pace.
#8 Amarth has run the best two races of her career to start this season and did it against some of the best in the class of fillies. She is bred to handle an off track and the distance on both the top and bottom. She’s a real player.
Top 4: 7-8-4-3
The Bet – $50 Win #7 – $25 Exacta Box 7,8 – Black Eyed Susan / Preakness Double 7,8 / 2
Pimlico Special Stakes, Pimlico, Race #12
We get an interesting Grade 3 race on the dirt right before the Black-Eyed Susan. #7 Pyrenees is a deserving favorite at 8/5. He ripped through his eligible conditions last year after breaking his maiden, including winning this race. He was slightly overmatched when stepping up to Grade One company, but he very much fits with this bunch and should sit a nice stalking trip.Â
#8 Star of Wonder has the most upside and will likely improve second off the layoff for Brad Cox. Those are the positives. Unfortunately, those are baked into a 7/2 price in his first start against stakes company. He should love the distance and an off track so there is a lot to like except the price.Â
#9 Red Route One is the horse who will benefit from a hot pace early. With plenty of speed signed on, he should be assured of that today and have the opportunity to run up into the trifecta. I do not love his chances to win, but I will include him in the exotic bets.
#3 Encino is one of those horses who will want the front. He was one of my legitimate Derby players last year before having to scratch out of the race. He was flat in the Gulfstream Park Mile, but rebounded with the best race of his career in the Kentucky Cup Classic. If any speed wins, it’s likely him, but it would be a tall task.
Top 4: 7-8-9-3
The Bet: $50 Exacta 7-8
Spot Bets:
Pimlico, Race #9 – $50 Win #2
Pimlico, Race #10 – $50 Win #8
