Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup 2025
The full name of the big 3-year-old filly race at Keeneland this weekend is the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes and it could shed some light on the turf runners to follow closely in 2026. This race is probably too tight of a timeframe to ship out to Del Mar for the Breeders’ Cup, but this is a strong Grade 1 race to have on the resume.
Oh, and there’s a bit of money involved as well, as this is an $800,000 purse. That purse does include $150,000 from the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund, so the Kentucky horses are eligible for a piece of that. There are five of them in this nine-horse race.
The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup will be Race 9 in your Saturday Keeneland program with post time expected to be 5:16 p.m. ET on October 11.
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup 2025 Entries, Horses, Jockeys, and Trainers:
| Post | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
| 1 | Lush Lips | T. Gaffalione | B. Walsh | 5-1 |
| 2 | Laurelin | K. Carmouche | H.G. Motion | 5/2 |
| 3 | Simmering | L. Saez | O. Sangster | 10-1 |
| 4 | Daisy Flyer | F. Geroux | G.R. Arnold | 20-1 |
| 5 | Opulent Restraint | J. Rosario | C. Brown | 4-1 |
| 6 | Candy Quest | J. Ortiz | M. Casse | 12-1 |
| 7 | Destino d’Oro | I. Ortiz Jr. | B. Cox | 8-1 |
| 8 | Will Then | L. Dettori | J. Thomas | 20-1 |
| 9 | Fionn | F. Prat | B. Cox | 3-1 |
This race, not to be confused with the Queen Elizabeth II held in October at Royal Ascot, is 1 ⅛ miles on the grass track at Keeneland. This year’s race features nine horses and all nine of them have won a stakes race in their young careers, so this is a loaded field and a truly excellent race. It features international winners, many of the sport’s top riders and trainers, and a very lucrative purse.
Spice Runner and Ted Noffey stand out in this field, but there are a lot of questions about any horse at this age.
Here are some thoughts on each horse at the odds at time of publish:
1. Lush Lips (5-1; Gaffalione/Walsh): Lush Lips was cross-bred between an Irish sire (Ten Sovereigns) and a British dam (Lamyaa). Ten Sovereigns opened with three wins in three races at Curragh and Newmarket before only securing one other win, though it did come at Newmarket in a G1 run. In terms of progeny, only Zulu Kingdom has earned more money, winning the American Turf Stakes at Churchill during Kentucky Derby weekend and the Manila Stakes at Saratoga on July 4.
Lush Lips won the Tepin Stakes at Churchill back in June with a career-best 107 Equibase Speed Figure. She followed that up with a second in the Del Mar Oaks and has shipped back to Kentucky for her first start at Keeneland. Since joining trainer Brendan Walsh, she has two wins and three seconds.
2. Laurelin (5/2; Carmouche/Motion): Laurelin is another horse with “dual citizenship”, as French sire Zarak and Irish dam Bari have produced a five-time winner in five career starts. She’s gotten better with each race and won the Saratoga Oaks Invitational Stakes with a career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure in her graded stakes debut.
Laurelin beat out favorite Opulent Restraint by nearly two and a half lengths, as she finished strong over 1 3/16. She won’t have to go as far this time, but she’ll have more traffic with the 2 post as opposed to the far outside post in the six-horse Saratoga Oaks. Kendrick Carmouche gets the ride again and he’s going to have to have a good one. He’s only an 11% rider on the turf this season and 12% for his career.
3. Simmering (10-1; Saez/Sangster): Simmering is the first true shipper in the field, as both Lush Lips and Laurelin were bred outside the United States, but have racing experience in the country. Simmering hasn’t gone more than a mile for Ollie Sangster yet. European imports tend to do well when shipped for the purposes of joining the field in one of these signature graded stakes events. She hasn’t won in over a year and has bounced a ton of tracks, but Luis Saez is an eye-catching rider here, even if he’s a much stronger dirt rider.
4. Daisy Flyer (20-1; Geroux/Arnold): Florent Geroux rides here for trailer George “Rusty” Arnold and Calumet Farm, as they enter the co-long shot into the field of nine. Consistency has been a problem for the daughter of Mshawish and Starstruck, as a couple of good efforts in the G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes and the Lake George Stakes were followed by an awful effort on the European-style turf track at Kentucky Downs.
Father Mshawish was a G1 winner and mother Starstruck had a couple G3 triumphs to her name. Daisy Flyer’s win in the Lake George was at this 1 1/16 distance. Her 11th-place finish in the Dueling Grounds Oaks was over 1 5/16 and she simply didn’t like the track and Joel Rosario pulled her up for the most part.
5. Opulent Restraint (4-1; Rosario/Brown): Rosario gets the ride for Chad Brown atop Opulent Restraint in this one. The two-time winner in seven races has not won in 2025 yet, as she finished third in the Saratoga Oaks a month after finishing third in the Belmont Oaks. Both of her wins have come in listed stakes races, but her four data points this season have higher speed figures than what we saw last season.
Dam Significant Form was a four-time stakes winner and ran fourth in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She really matured over her 3-year-old season and then had three stakes wins as a 4-year-old. It feels like Opulent Restraint is on a similar path, which means she could have a really big 2026. She could absolutely win this, but she has already finished behind Laurelin and Fionn this season.
6. Candy Quest (12-1; J. Ortiz/Casse): The Kentucky contingent mostly drew outside assignments, as Candy Quest and the three horses to her right are all eligible for the extra prize money. Mark Casse’s Candy Quest ran second to Fionn in the Blackwood Dueling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs over 1 5/16, so this distance is not a problem at all. This will be her first Keeneland effort, with wins at Woodbine, Gulfstream Park, and Aqueduct to her name.
Jose Ortiz had a terrific ride on Candy Quest in that Kentucky Downs run, as she broke from the middle of the pack to take the lead before losing by half a length to Fionn at the end. It was not a bad effort at all for a horse that went off around 17-1. Along with that loss to Fionn, she’s fallen to Laurelin twice. She took a big jump in the speed numbers from one race to the next. Another bump here and she has a good shot at a good price.
7. Destino d’Oro (8-1; I. Ortiz/Cox): Brad Cox has two entries here and Flavien Prat stays on Fionn, while Destino d’Oro gets a change from Luan Machado to Irad Ortiz Jr. That’s a pretty big upgrade for the daughter of Bolt d’Oro and Heart of Destiny. Machado had the ride in the Pucker Up Stakes at Ellis Park and Prat had the ride in last year’s Jessamine Stakes on this very Keeneland track.
This is a horse with a ton of potential, but horseplayers are likely to be scared off by that complete dud as the odds-on favorite down the road at Kentucky Downs. She might be a sneaky bounce back candidate here with Irad in the irons, but her recent workouts at Churchill Downs have been underwhelming.
8. Will Then (20-1; Dettori/Thomas): The daughter of War of Will and Remember Then has Frankie Dettori aboard as the co-long shot here and probably the outright long shot at post time. After back-to-back wins to end her 2-year-old season, including the Jimmy Durante at Del Mark, she came out of the layoff with a win in the listed China Doll at Santa Anita. Since then, she’s finished fifth twice and third. Her best speed numbers don’t match the top horses in this field. She might be a good bet for some G2 and G3 scores next year, but probably not a good bet here.
9. Fionn (3-1; Prat/Cox): The impressive Fionn (Twirling Candy, Gaelic Gold) for Dixiana Farms has the far outside post as she looks for her seventh win in nine career starts. In her lone Keeneland start, Fionn lost to Nitrogen and Vixen over one mile, but Prat didn’t have that ride. He had the ride on Table Flirt for Bill Mott. In three wins since, Prat has been the rider in the last two and all of them were over a mile.
She might just prefer a bit more distance. Both her father and grandfather (Giant’s Causeway) didn’t discriminate – they won at any distance. By getting revenge over Nitrogen at the Belmont Oaks, she also beat Opulent Restraint. In the Dueling Grounds Oaks, she beat Candy Quest.
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Predictions
Like so many, I’m between Laurelin and Fionn, which seems to be the consensus opinion here. Like I said, each performance for Laurelin has been better than the one before it. If she does that again here, she should win. Motion has been very deliberate about where and when she has been entered. She’s had a lot of time between each race.
But, I’ll ride – pardon the pun – with Flavien Prat over Kendrick Carmouche here. Carmouche has been a 19% ride for the season as a whole, but 22% on dirt/all-weather. Meanwhile, Prat’s been a 25% guy on the grass this season. Sure, he gets better assignments, but that’s because he’s also a better rider.
Candy Quest third for me and Lush Lips to fill the super.
Prediction: 9-2-6-1
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