Santa Anita and Delaware Park Picks for Saturday, June 14 from Mike Somich:
With the completion of the Triple Crown, stakes racing takes a back seat before the Stars and Stripes Festival in New York on the 4th of July, but don’t worry, we are still running all over the country tomorrow. Let’s head out to Santa Anita and Delaware Park to dive into some of the bigger races of the weekend.
The Daytona Stakes, Santa Anita, Race #10
One of my favorite courses to watch horses run down live is this down-the-hill course at Santa Anita. It’s exactly what it sounds like, they run down the hill behind the back stretch and join the main turf course to finish the race. This is relevant because specific horses really take to this setup, so it’s important to look at how they have performed down the hill when handicapping these races.
Let’s kick it off with the favorite, #7 Motorious, who has run five times down the hill with three wins and was in the top 3 in all five starts. He is the most likely winner, but price comes into play here. At 6/5 (+120) on the morning line, he’s got to win 40% of the time to break even, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility. The issue is, he will probably go off closer to 4/5, and he’s not going to win over 50% of the time, so we have to look elsewhere. I was very close to putting two separate horses on top, so keep that in mind when you see the odds board in real time.
#2 Bran is an enticing price on the board at 9/2. He has also been down the hill with a win and a second in three trips; he fits for the class, and his top effort is good enough to win here. He’s second off the layoff, so I expect him to be sharper than his last race, which was over a flat six-furlong course. Rispoli rides back, which is also a positive. He’s piloted Bran to two wins and a second in three races. He’s also got tactical speed, which should play well in this race that lacks speed for a turf sprint.
The other interesting horse is #5 Stay Hot, who is the lone younger horse in the field. He has run in four straight graded stakes, but all of those came at over a mile. He does not possess early speed, which is the main drawback for a horse that is one for one over this course. That win was off the layoff in 2024, just like this race this season. JJ Hernandez stays aboard, and the price at 6-1 is juicy. I like Bran more because of the early speed, but if he gets bet and Stay Hot does not, I would shift my bet to Stay Hot.
#1 Air Force Red is another horse who loves the hill, including a Grade 2 victory. The main issue is he would need to have a career best if any of the above three show up with their A-game. He is more logical in the trifecta and superfecta.
Top 4: 2-7-5-1
The Bets: $50 Win #2
Delaware Oaks, Delaware Park, Race #9
While we didn’t get the best of the three-year-old fillies in this class, we do have a solid betting race since I am very much against the favorite here. #4 Margie’s Intention won the Black-Eyed Susan last time out at Pimlico, but that was a weak field over a funky, sloppy track. Before that win, she had not competed outside of the state-bred Louisiana company, which she was not dominating. She is 5/2 on the morning line, but I expect that to be bet down, and #5 Paris Lily ran an all-around better race in the Black-Eyed Susan, setting a fast pace and being caught late by Margie’s Intention.
I’m going to take a shot with #6 Cassiar, who won on debut before jumping into graded stakes company at Gulfstream. That was a lot to ask for a horse second time out and first time going two turns. She came back to win in a 100k N1X allowance off the graded stakes loss, matching the beyer from the maiden win. She’s bred to handle two turns and has more foundation now than the run at Gulfstream. The price is right at 6-1 as well in a field without a world-beater.
I like #5 Paris Lily as well. She should find herself on the lead here without as much pressure as she saw in the Black-Eyed Susan, which translates to her having a significantly better chance to hold on down the lane.
#7 Fondly was also rushed to graded stakes competition by a more passive, old-school trainer in Graham Motion when she entered the Kentucky Oaks. She was overmatched in that field, but again, this is a weaker group of three-year-old fillies. She will look to sit close and make the first run, the style I prefer to bet, but she needs to improve to win.
#1 Kinzie Queen could benefit from a slower pace today. She was too far off the lead in the Black-Eyed Susan last time out. When she is closer to the pace, she has had the most success, which should be the trip today. A win here would be hard pressed, but she’s a price that plays in the exotic wagers.
Top 4: 6-5-7-4
The Bet: $50 Win #6
Spot Bets:
Santa Anita, Race #4: $50 Daily Double 2-6 (like the Pick three 2-6-2 here as well if you want to introduce more risk)
Santa Anita, Race #11: $10 Daily Double 2,3 / 2,6 (this is a price play, so the payout will be high without playing a large amount; top picks are 3 in the 11th and 2 in the 12th.)
