Mike Somich’s Santa Anita Picks:
It’s the holiday gift all horse players look forward to every year! Santa Anita’s open card is as explosive as ever, with six graded stakes to round out the card, including three Grade 1 races that are looking to be competitive races. Let’s dive into a few Santa Anita picks and see if we can find some value!
The Malibu, Race #8, Santa Anita
The final Grade 1 of the year for three-year-olds always brings out the stars and this year is no different! There will be three Bob Baffert entries, one Brad Cox, your Kentucky Derby winner and the Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up all heading postward in a competitive eight-horse field.
#1 Bentornato draws the rail coming out of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He’s got speed to burn and should be able to hold position into the turn against this field. While this year’s sprint division was not as good as past years, you still have to look at this as a slight drop in class. The big question for him will be the distance. The Sprint is run at six furlongs; today, he is going seven, and it will not be a walk in the park trying to go gate to wire here with other speed signed on. He’s a player, but that final furlong could prove to be a problem.
#8 Raging Torrent will be breathing down Bentornato’s neck every step of the way. He’s also coming out of the Sprint, where he drew the rail but was not able to flash all of his speed; the outside post should help here and ensure a quick pace.
That pace sets up perfectly for up-and-comer #4 Senior Officer, who will be the pick. He wants to sit in a stalking position and should get the trip here. He just missed last time out in his second start, but he had trouble late. This is an aggressive placement from Brad Cox who wins with 24% of his graded stakes runners and Prat takes the mount. Except a big step forward while still getting value, he’s 5-1 on the morning line.
The best of the Baffert horses is #2 Pilot Commander, who gets JJ Hernandez in the irons. He’s the go-to jockey for Baffert in these spots, and his only two losses, both second-place finishes, came to next-out winners, including Muth, who won the Arkansas Derby.
Kentucky Derby winner #6 Mystic Dan cuts back here and is the lukewarm favorite at 5/2. He kicked off his career running well, going five and a half and six and a half furlongs so he is capable of winning around one turn. The setup should be right as well, with enough speed signed on for him to chase.
Santa Anita Picks: 4-2-6-1
The Bet – $50 Win #4
Mathis Mile, Race #9, Santa Anita
While not one of the main stakes on the card, this is one of my favorite betting races. I love playing exactas when I have an opinion on top and prices underneath, and that’s the case here. #1 King of Gosford reunites with Flavien Prat, who is 2 for 2 aboard him. He cuts back from one mile and an eighth to his preferred one-mile distance today and should get a sweet trip on the rail, saving ground and kicking home in the lane.
Underneath him, I like two horses. Let’s start with #4 Siennois, who has consistently improved throughout his three-year-old season for stud turf trainer Phil D’Amato. This will be his third race off the layoff, which should help improve his chances, and Fresu stays in the irons off a win.
#7 Call Sign Seven will be jumping up in class to take on graded stakes company for the first time. He’s 20-1 today, which is a great value. His last race looks good on paper but great on the replay. He broke from the 11 post that day, was wide on both turns and still was able to win impressively. He projects to get a much better trip today and is a great price to play underneath in exactas.
#5 Stay Hot is the second choice on the morning line and, while I respect him here, he is better going a mile and an eighth. He can still be competitive on the cutback, but I am worried that he will simply run out of real estate in this spot.
Santa Anita Picks: 1-4-7-5
The Bets: $25 Exacta – 1 with 4, 7
Other spot plays:
Santa Anita, Race #11: $50 Win #8
Santa Anita, Race #10: $50 Win #2
