Saratoga and Del Mar Picks:
Saturday racing features 23 races from Del Mar and Saratoga with Grade 1’s on both coasts. At Saratoga, Derby favorite Fierceness returns to the track to take on Sierra Leone and on the West Coast one of the top older males, Arabian Knight, will be a heavy favorite. It shapes up to be a great racing day with some great betting opportunities. Let’s take a look at Saturday’s Saratoga and Del Mar picks.
Grade 2 Jim Dandy, Saratoga, Race #10
The feature on Saratoga’s card showcases the Derby favorite versus the Derby runner-up. This race comes down to your thoughts on #6 Fierceness. If he runs his A race, everyone else is competing for second. The problem is he is wildly inconsistent in running his A race. We’ve seen it three times in six starts. The other three efforts were duds. I expect him to come back well here. It’s a shorter field, just six horses, which should allow him to get a good, settled trip. He can make the lead if he wants it or sit just off. Both have been winning trips in the past, and the morning line price of 9/5 is reasonable since there is a better than 2-1 chance he runs to his talent.
#1 Sierra Leone had every chance to win two of the three triple crown legs and came up short twice. He’s consistently able to close the ground but does not win enough to be an even-money favorite. He’s a likely winner here, but the price does not line up with his chances.
#3 Batten Down has gone gate to wire in his last two and will try to make hay on the front again here. He’ll have a much tougher field to deal with today than either of his last two, but if Fierceness doesn’t fire, I would not be shocked if he can take this field gate to wire.
Your Preakness winner, #2 Seize the Gray, is back to try to knock of Sierra Leone for a second time. He too won gate to wire when at his best so I’d expect to see some pace on. Without a favorable trip, it’s unlikely he competes for the top spot.
Saratoga Picks: 6-1-3-2
Bets: $50 Win #6
Grade 1 Bing Crosby, Del Mar, Race #10
This marks one of my favorite races each year at Del Mar. It’s always a competitive field with some of the top sprinters in the US. All eyes will be on #8 The Chosen Vron, who has won five straight races and 13 of his last 14, including this event last year. He loves Del Mar, three for five over the track and is proven at the distance, five for six. With all of that, however, comes a short price, and since most of his wins have come versus state-bred competition, I’m not willing to swallow a short price.
#9 Jackstown enters the race light on experience but has shown he has boatloads of talent. This will be just the third start of his career and second off a nearly two-year layoff. The simple fact he is in the race tells you what Bob Baffert thinks of the horse’s talent. When a trainer is willing to step out to this level, so am I, especially when the price is 15-1.
#3 Straight No Chaser is also aggressively entered here with just one race in 2024. He made the lead that day and faded, but he has multiple races in his past that make him a player here. He has also been working up a storm leading up to this, and trainer Dan Blacker generally does not overestimate his horses. I expect him to outrun his odds.
#7 Happy Jack lost to The Chosen Vron in his 2024 debut but took a nice step forward next time out. He is in his five-year-old season, so I tend to believe that improvement is legitimate. He’s another that can contend with a repeat of his last.
Del Mar Picks: 9-3-8-7
Bets: $50 Win – #9
Spot Plays:
Saratoga Race #7 – $50 Win #9
Del Mar Race #6 – $50 Win #9
