Saratoga and Del Mar Picks:
Now that we are in full swing at both Del Mar and Saratoga, Thursday through Sunday are great days to play the ponies! We dodged some weather in upstate New York, so we are on the turf today, which sets up a very interesting feature race! Let’s look at our Saratoga and Del Mar picks.
Grade 3 Caress, Saratoga, Race #9
With the key scratch of the morning line favorite, #10 Roses for Debra, this race opened up quite a bit and allowed an interesting European horse into the field! The favorite will now be #3 Future Is Now, a horse I would have probably bet if Roses for Debra stayed in the field. Now, with her out, the price on Future Is Now will plummet from the 7/2 morning line down to a number too short for me to bet. I respect the heck out of her, and she’s in great form, having a nice win last time over this course in a Grade 2 event. She was 10-1 that day. I cannot bet her back here at what I expect to be somewhere in the 7/5 range.
The #11 Star Guest would not be in this field if not for scratches, but I am sure happy she will run. This is a Charlie Appleby invader who has won two of her three turf sprinting efforts in Europe. She’s shown speed in Europe, which is important when trying North American turf sprints and getting Prat up. Hopefully, the price will hold near the 5-1 morning line.
#5 Danse Macabre returns to the track after a long break and extended three-year-old campaign. She was ultra-consistent last year, hitting the exacta in all five starts. She will need to improve to win, but improvement should be expected first time out as a four-year-old. She’s a player at 10-1.
#2 Secret Money has been taking slight steps forward in each of her races this season. She will need to take a bigger one today to win, but she is a very logical longshot that can hit the board to help bloat up the price of the trifecta and superfecta.
Saratoga Picks: 11-3-5-2
Bets: $50 Win – 11
Grade 3 Cougar II Stakes, Del Mar, Race #7
The feature on Del Mar’s card drew a shorter field, but still sets up well as a betting race since there a couple that I am happy to completely chuck out. #3 Reincarnate will head postward for Bob Baffert. While he hasn’t won much in his career, he has also been facing the best older horses in the country. With the additional distance today, this race is a mile and a half. He draws a significantly weaker field and has a major class advantage. It sure feels like today is the day.
#4 Salesman is the lukewarm morning line favorite due to his romp two back at a marathon distance. However, that race was in November of 2023, and the one start this year was not good at all. His trainer, Richard Mendella, is decent off this type of layoff, but Salesman’s two races off the layoff in the US have been his too worst. It’s tough to get too excited about him at a short price.
#5 Dual Threat has the edge of being the only competitor that wants to close. While I wouldn’t expect a fast pace at this distance, any early dual would assist his chances. That being said, he’s never gone over a mile and a sixteenth and just has the last race to point to that would be close to good enough to win.
#2 Midnight Mammoth is a pure speed ball. He’s gone right to the front in his last two races well, running shorter, and that is his best chance to win here. The issue is Salesman would like to do the same thing. He went over a mile and a sixteenth once and that didn’t go well. I expect he’s in the lead early and fading late.
Del Mar Picks: 3-4-5-2
Bets: $50 Win – #3, but I considered the 3-5 exacta for a long while.
Spot Plays:
Saratoga Race #7 – $50 Win #2
Del Mar Race #6 – $50 Win #2
