Saratoga Picks for Saturday, July 12 from Mike Somich:
It’s officially the weekend opening from the Spa after two traditional Belmont weekends have come and gone, and that means a loaded Saturday card. We have two stakes races that headline the card, but many of the allowance level and maiden special weight events have horses that could be the stars of tomorrow.
Bowling Green Stakes, Saratoga, Race #8
I’ve got to start with the favorite, #7 Far Bridge, who I am excited to play against when he is sitting at 6/5 on the morning line. He will be bet on race day, and while the numbers fit, they are not dominant. He has a win at Saratoga, but it is just one for four over the surface. My main issue is the rider, Joel Rosario. He has simply not consistently ridden well in over a year. I cannot take him at a short price on a horse who isn’t dominant.
I am going to take a shot with #2 El Rezeen, who is two for two over this turf course and reunites with Dylan Davis, who was aboard for both wins. His seasonal debut showed he has grown up since ending the season strong last year. That was a one mile and one sixteenth, a distance too short for him. The stretch out today is right in his wheelhouse. Expect a career-best effort at an 8-1 morning line price.
The other Pletcher runner, #4 Tucson, is interesting as well. He is the speed in what looks to be a paceless three-turn race over the inner turf. He was too bad to believe in the Grade 1 Manhattan, so the confidence to throw in right back into a graded stakes is a positive, and the price is right at 15-1.
#6 Harrow has had a career transformation since being claimed for $16,000 in April of last year. He’s run very well going three turns, is second off the layoff, and draws Irad Oritz Jr. in the irons.
Just a quick note, while I am never betting Far Bridge to win and I will not use him in the Pick 4/5/6, if you are playing trifectas or superfectas, he is one you should include.
Top 4: 2-4-6-7
The Bets – $50 Win #2
$110k Allowance, Saratoga, Race #9
While not a stakes race, I wanted to write up this one because of the 1/1A entry. If you bet the #1 to win, you get both the 1 and 1A. While that is nice to have two horses, it does lessen the price on the pair. The entry here, #1 Move to Gold and #1A Debt Limit are 5/2 on the morning line, but if they were decoupled, neither would be better than 5-1. Debt Limit would need to improve in a big way to win, and Move to Gold is coming off a year-plus layoff. Additionally, they drew outside two posts. While either can win, this is an entry I would like to bet against.
If there was not an entry, the favorite would be #3 Taraj, who is 4-1 on the morning line. He is running in the States for the first time, something trainer Bill Mott excels at. He’s 25% with a positive ROI, and facing a substantial drop in class from the Group stakes level in Europe. He gets to drop a significant amount of weight and has been successful at both shorter and longer distances.
#5 Gilded Craken is a dangerous horse in this spot simply due to his early speed. There is not too much signed on, so expect Gilded Craken to take them as far as he can. The spot is a positive one as well, second off a long layoff, and his first start is better than it looks on paper. He broke from the twelve post in a twelve-horse field that day and was forced wide on both turns. He will have a much better trip today.
#9 Then has had issues in three straight races finding room in the stretch. He is a deep closer, so that is not entirely shocking, but he will get a good trip at some point. When he does, watch out. He gets Ortiz Jr aboard, who is the best in the game at navigating trips.
#11 Bettrluckythangood leaves state-bred competition for the first time after accomplishing everything he can there at the allowance level. He had trouble last time out, his first start in eight months, and should be better today.
This is another race where the 1/1A entry is playable in the Tri/Super, but not one I would use in the multi-race bets.
Top 4: 3-5-9-11
The Bet – $50 Win #3
Spot Bets:
Saratoga, Race #7 – $50 Win #2
Saratoga, Race #12 – $50 Win #9
