Mr. Ed’s Saratoga Picks for Wednesday, July 30:
LOSE SOME, WIN SUM: After 14 race days of the 2025 Saratoga meet, it’s time to reflect on where Mr. Ed has been and, more importantly, where he is headed. The meet has been as fickle as ever. Case in point: This past Saturday’s 12-race card was the best of the meet thus far. After hours of study, Mr. Ed was full of optimism and more than ready for a profitable day at the windows. But, when all was said and run around 7 p.m. ET, Mr. Ed was left with a fistful of worthless tickets — and little enthusiasm for Sunday’s weak program. By 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, Mr. Ed, having discovered several of his picks had been scratched primarily due to morning heavy rain showers, was ready to throw in his towel and watch LIV golf. The last thing he expected was to have several trips to the cashier window and his most profitable day of the meet. Go figure. For those who follow Mr. Ed’s Saratoga Selections, I encourage you to visit here daily, rain or shine. You never know when it might start pouring cash again! And finally, as for the dismal PLAY OF THE DAY and BEST BET OF THE DAY, trust in Mr. Ed. It’s early in the meet.
HORSING AROUND: Churchill Downs’ decision to run the Kentucky Oaks the night before the Derby (May 2) has the Louisville restaurant community ready to call for a local boycott of the track. With the Oaks expected to be run around 8 p.m. ET for maximum TV exposure, the card will not be finished until around 10:30 p.m., far too late for most patrons to be ready to sit down for dinner. After the first three weeks of the Saratoga meet, Irad Ortiz, Jr. leads the rider race with 28 victories, followed by his brother Jose with 20 and, surprisingly, Ricardo Santana with 12. As for the hot barns, perennial leader Chad Brown and HOFer Todd Pletcher are tied with 11 wins, trailed by savvy Linda Rice with 9. Mr. Katie Davis (jockey Trevor McCarthy) and one of Mr. Ed’s favorite riders, Tyler Gaffalione, are scheduled to return to riding in August after recovering from injuries. And finally, Mr. Ed is keeping a keen eye on Bob Baffert’s $3M 2YO BRANT, who won his debut at Del Mar this past weekend. As for today, the forecast calls for sunny skies and a high in the mid-80s. Let’s take a look at Mr. Ed’s picks.
Mr. Ed’s Saratoga Picks for Wednesday (7/30)
Race 2 (1:48 p.m. ET/10:48 a.m. PT) — $100K ALLOWANCE CLAIMING for fillies and mares, 3YOs & up going 7 furlongs
Mr. Ed likes two: #1 STONE SMUGGLER (7-5 morning line) receiving Lasix for the first time for high-percentage trainer Jorge Abreu, with top rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. returning to the saddle. He also likes #4 EMBRACABLE GAL (3-1) for trainer Rob Atras with Dylan Davis riding again.
SARATOGA SELECTION: $5 Daily Double of 1,4 & 4,6. ($20)
Race 3 (2:23 p.m. ET/11:23 a.m. PT) — $38K MAIDEN CLAIMING for fillies and mares, 3YOs & up going 6 furlongs
Mr. Ed is betting on either of two to complete DD: #4 STIRRED UP (9-2 morning line) for Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano, or #6 SUNSET SIZZLE (2-1) for low-profile, but highly competent trainer Lindsay Shultz with Jose Ortiz.
Race 4 (2:58 p.m. ET/12:58 p.m. PT) — $120K OPTIONAL CLAIMING for 3YOs & up going 1⅜ mile on the turf
I like three standouts: #3 BOURBON DAY (8-1 morning line) for hot Mike Maker barn with savvy NY rider Manny Franco; #5 HUSH OF A STORM (3-1), for Brad Cox with Flavien Prat returning, and #6 CORRUPTION (7-5) for Mark Casse and Jose Ortiz.
SARATOGA SELECTION: $5 Exacta Box. ($30)
Race 5 (3:32 p.m. ET/12:32 p.m. PT) — $72K MAIDEN CLAIMING for 3YOs & up going 6 furlongs
When trainer Linda Rice sends out a first-time starter, Mr. Ed sits up and takes notice. His pick is #3 V CRUISER (10-1 morning line) with Kendrick Carmouche, who declined a more expensive ride to ride this son of top sire VIOLENCE. Fast bullet 1 of 47 works says he’s ready to cruise. My PLAY OF THE DAY
SARATOGA SELECTION: $5 Win & Place. ($10)
Race 6 (4:06 p.m. ET/1:06 p.m. PT) — $100K MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT for 2YOs going 5½ furlongs on the grass
Always-playable trainer Wesley Ward sends out FTS #1 SANTINA (4-1 morning line), giving HOF rider Victor Espinoza a rare leg up.
SARATOGA SELECTION: $5 to Win & Place ($10)
Race 7 (4:40 p.m. ET/1:40 p.m. PT) — $75K OPTIONAL CLAIMING for 3YOs & Up going 1⅜ mile on the turf
Mr. Ed likes #6 COGNOSCENTI (4-1 morning line) stretching back out for trainer Miguel Clement while retaining top-jock Irad Ortiz, Jr.
SARATOGA SELECTION: $10 to Win. ($10)
Race 8 (5:14 p.m. ET/2:14 p.m. PT) — $150K JOHNSTONE STAKES for fillies and mares 3 YOs & up going 7 furlongs
Mr. Ed’s BEST BET OF THE DAY is #5 MY MANE SQUEEZE (3-1 morning line), millionaire takes big class drop and retains Luis Saez for excellent trainer Mike Maker. Works indicate he’s ready to win minor stakes as a warm-up for bigger ones ahead.
SARATOGA SELECTION: $20 to Win. ($20)
TOTAL WAGERS: $100
PLAYS OF THE DAY (13 bets): -$180.20
BEST BETS OF THE DAY (11 bets): -$83.00
WHITNEY WEEK AT THE SPA: This Whitney day (Saturday) card has it all – stars of the sport across 4 Grade 1s, promising 2YOs, shippers from all over, and large fields throughout. Strong frontrunner to be the best card of the summer, according to David Aragona of NYRA. On Thursday, NY-bred 3YOs will go 7 furlongs in the John Morrissey Stakes.
