Mike Somich’s Saratoga Picks:
We have made it to Travers weekend at Saratoga, and the weather has graced us with wonderful conditions. We are fast and firm today with no rain expected before tomorrow. While the Travers card tomorrow is phenomenal with five Grade 1 stakes, today’s is great two with twelve competitive races. I’m not going to headline the two shorter fields on the card, including the Grade 1 Personal Ensign, since I like the short-priced favorite. Let’s look at today’s Saratoga picks.
$50k Claiming, Saratoga, Race #8
We are going a mile and sixteenth on the turf, and the favorite is jammed all the way out in the 12 post. While I respect #12 Transactional dropping out of the allowance level to take on claimers here, it’s a difficult spot to win. He was the favorite last time out, his first race off the long layoff, and I do not like that they are dropping him now after taking so long to get back to the track.
I am going to take a shot here with #1 Billy’s Got Issues who is 12-1 on the morning line. He was favored the last time out at the $30k claiming level while breaking out of the 10 post. The adjustment from the outside to the inside offers him a chance to take a step forward off the last two races.
#8 Dissolved returns off the layoff for trainer Mike Maker who has been hot lately. He’s dropping in from the allowance level and is in a logical position to improve since this will be his first start later in his 4-year-old season.
#3 Brigade Commander is the wildcard in the race. He’s been on dirt the five starts and now returns to the turf. He should make the lead with a great front-running jockey. I was hoping for double-digit odds on him, so the 6-1 price is a little short, but he is dangerous.
Saratoga Picks: 1-12-8-3
Bets: $50 Win #1
95k N1X Allowance, Saratoga, Race #11
Let’s stick with the turf, but this time, we’ll take a shot at a sprint. #8 Linarite returns for a 3rd start in this Saratoga season, and the setup is beautiful today. There is a boatload of speed that is signed on here, which should help provide the pace to chase for Linarite to run down. He also loves the Saratoga turf. He has hit the board in all four of his starts here.
#7 Mybronxbaby ships in from Finger Lakes and is the speed of the speed. He will try to gun it early and make all. While I mentioned there is a lot of speed, I like taking the speed of the speed in these turf sprints since they can shake loose.
#5 Delightful Dixie ran a race that beats the field two back, however that is the lone race that would get the job done. He has speed, but does not need the lead which is important today.
#11 Aunt Yola won last time out in his first career try on the turf. He jumps up from the maiden special weight level to face winners today, but he could easily improve in his second career turf effort. The post is not great, but the speed should help Aunt Yola work out a trip.
Saratoga Picks: 8-7-5-11
Bets: $50 Win #8
Spot Plays:
Saratoga Race #4 – $50 Win #4
Saratoga Race #10 – $50 Exacta 4-2
