Stephen Foster 2025
A massive Saturday June 28 card at Churchill Downs features six graded stakes races, including the $1 million Stephen Foster Stakes. This race for 3+-year-old horses is one of the summer’s signature events for the slightly-older crop and this year’s field certainly lives up to the race’s stature.
This is a huge race, as the winner is guaranteed a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic coming up on November 1. Seven horses with nearly $26 million in career earnings are entered in the field and one of them will pick up the 39th career win for this 4-year-old group. The big names are a “who’s who” group, including 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone, and recent Churchill Downs Stakes winner Mindframe.
Post time is set for 6:03 p.m. ET under the twin spires.
Stephen Foster Stakes 2025 Entries, Horses, Jockeys, and Trainers:
| Post | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
| 1 | First Mission | L. Saez | B. Cox | 4-1 |
| 2 | Mindframe | I. Ortiz Jr. | T. Pletcher | 7/2 |
| 3 | Skippylongstocking | J. Ortiz | S. Joseph | 5-1 |
| 4 | Sierra Leone | F. Prat | C. Brown | 5/2 |
| 5 | Mystik Dan | B. Hernandez | K. McPeek | 3-1 |
| 6 | Hit Show | F. Geroux | B. Cox | 9/2 |
| 7 | Ashcroft | J. Leparoux | D. Lukas | 30-1 |
That is a stunning list of riders and trainers, as most of the sport’s absolute best have an opportunity in this field. D. Wayne Lukas still has his name on Ashcroft, though the legendary trainer recently retired abruptly due to medical issues. Brad Cox has two entries in the field with very similar odds, as Hit Show is the leading earner of the field and just won the Dubai World Cup and First Mission is a 5-year-old with plenty of stakes experience.
Great race here, but obviously not much separation between the contenders, as the odds suggest. You’re unlikely to find big prices and big payouts with Saturday’s main event.
Here are some thoughts on each horse at the odds at time of publish:
1. First Mission (4-1; Saez/Cox): We’ll see how the rail post plays out for First Mission and jockey Luis Saez, who has experience on the son of Street Sense and Elude, but none recently. Cox’s usual go-to rider, Florent Geroux, had five straight rides before Flavien Prat took the Godolphin-bred horse back to the winner’s circle last time out in the Oaklawn Handicap. A lot of people like the current form for First Mission and Saez is obviously a tremendously accomplished rider, including 16 dirt stakes wins for Cox over the last few years.
This is First Mission’s second crack at the Stephen Foster, finishing fourth last year behind Kingsbarns, Pyrenees, and Skippylongstocking.
2. Mindframe (7/2; I. Ortiz/Pletcher): Another powerhouse team here with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons and Todd Pletcher manning the barn. Mindframe only has six starts to his name and was 0-for-2 in Grade 1 starts before winning the seven-furlong Churchill Downs Stakes on Kentucky Derby Day. This race is 1 ⅛ miles, but Mindframe did that well in last year’s Haskell, finishing second, and also went a quarter mile longer to finish second in the Belmont. He’s never finished lower than second, but this is a far stiffer test than what he’s faced in his last two wins.
3. Skippylongstocking (5-1; J. Ortiz/Joseph): The son of Exaggerator is 0-for-6 in Grade 1 efforts to this point, but the 6-year-old elder statesman of the field has frequently put up strong speed figures. This will be his first Churchill start since last year’s Stephen Foster. He’s shipping from California after a Santa Anita triumph about a month ago in the Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup. He runs a lot and hits the board a lot, as he has two wins and three shows in five 2025 starts, but this field just might have too much, ahem, horsepower for him.
4. Sierra Leone (5/2; Prat/Brown): The son of Gun Runner and Heavenly Love has all the pedigree, good numbers, and is a very impressive looking horse. He only has four wins to his name, including last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic with what was the best trip of his career. After wintering down south, he shook off some rust in the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic in late March and ran a respectable, albeit underwhelming, third. In two Kentucky starts, he’s won the Blue Grass and finished second in the Kentucky Derby. He’s never been worse than third in 10 starts and has gone up against some of the best of the best, but is that 40% win rate just a little scary given this field?
5. Mystik Dan (3-1; Hernandez/McPeek): On a recent trip to Europe, I watched the Netflix horse racing docuseries Race For The Crown. It was so easy to root for Brian Hernandez and Kenny McPeek throughout that show and I will forever pull for those two. Mystik Dan’s epic Kentucky Derby run forever holds a place in history, but things haven’t gone all that well since. A runner-up in the muck at Pimlico took some wind out of his sails, as he was a total non-factor in the Belmont and then took a long hiatus.
He got back in the winner’s circle last time out in the Grade 3 Blame Stakes right here at Churchill, so maybe that’s just the right track for him, as his two biggest wins and three of four career victories have come in Louisville.
6. Hit Show (9/2; Geroux/Cox): Florent Geroux and Brad Cox decided that Hit Show was the way to go this weekend. Horseplayers are plenty aware of Hit Show, who has nine wins in 18 starts and over $8 million in earnings. Casual horseplayers may not be as aware, as he failed to hit the board in both Triple Crown races – Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes – as a 3-year-old two years ago.
However, since turning four, Hit Show has racked up six wins in nine tries, including that very lucrative win at Meydan in the Dubai World Cup back on April 5. It was his first Grade 1 win in five tries and a massive momentum builder heading into this race, where some of the household names could take some money and bump his price up a bit.
7. Ashcroft (30-1; Leparoux/Lukas): The entire horse racing community has been united in sending well wishes and positive thoughts to D. Wayne Lukas, who was hospitalized with a bad infection and declined the proposed treatment methods. Sebastian Nicholl has taken over his horses and will be on hand to watch the long shot Ashcroft, who Lukas entered prior to his retirement. Ashcroft is no match for this field, finishing fifth and sixth in two starts so far in 2025. This is also just his third graded stakes race. But, he is improving and could win some undercard races over the summer and fall.
Stephen Foster Stakes Predictions
What a terrific field. Looking for flaws among the six contenders feels more like nitpicking than anything else. My pick here is Sierra Leone. He’s taken to the Kentucky dirt well and Chad Brown knew what he was doing shaking off the rust down at Fair Grounds before bringing him north to point for exactly this race. We only have the one data point as a 4-year-old, so that brings some uncertainty into the picture, but his workouts have reportedly been strong.
I also like Hit Show quite a bit. Obviously this field will be decidedly better than the Dubai World Cup field was, but he’s really run well as he’s gotten older and Geroux has five stakes race wins on him in his last six starts, so he’s absolutely been the right rider for Cox.
$25 Exacta Box: 4/6
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