Daily Racing Form handicappers Ashley Mailloux and David Aragona preview Saturday’s Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
The $2 million Stephen Foster Stakes, Race 11 with a 6:14 p.m. Eastern post, drew a field of seven. Both handicappers land on the same colt on top: No. 3 Sovereignty, the 6-5 morning-line favorite, and the debate is everything behind him – the same top four with only the order in question.
The horse to beat: No. 3 Sovereignty
Sovereignty, trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado, returned in the Oaklawn Handicap off a layoff and wound up on the lead, which Aragona says is not his style. Aragona explains his weapon is the late run he builds from the three-eighths pole, and from the front that day he could not answer the kick that beat him. With more early speed signed on here, Aragona expects him to settle off the pace and make his usual move. He has watched the colt train and says the old Sovereignty is back. Aragona calls him the most likely winner, and Mailloux puts him on top as well.
The argument over second: White Abarrio or Baeza
No. 2 White Abarrio, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., won that Oaklawn Handicap two lengths clear over runner-up Sovereignty, with Journalism third, on a perfect pocket trip. A multiple Grade 1 winner including the Breeders’ Cup Classic, White Abarrio is Mailloux’s runner-up. He is 3-1.
Aragona instead goes to No. 4 Baeza. Sovereignty’s Mott-trained stablemate was third in the Alysheba Stakes last out, a race in which he botched the break, as he did in the Breeders’ Cup before that. Baeza does his best work late, and Aragona notes that Mott added a gate drill for his final workout to address his issues. Aragona sees upside second off the layoff, even if the break is a question, at 6-1.
The handicappers’ verdict
Ashley Mailloux’s picks
No. 3 Sovereignty
No. 2 White Abarrio
No. 5 Magnitude
No. 4 Baeza
David Aragona’s picks
No. 3 Sovereignty
No. 4 Baeza
No. 2 White Abarrio
No. 5 Magnitude
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