The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, June 26, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Under the total is 18-4-1 (81.8%, +13.65 units) in the last 23 games between Washington and Baltimore
– The ROI on this trend is 59.3%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-BAL (o/u at 9)

Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 305-313 run (+14.72 units, ROI: 2.4%).
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-120 at SF)

Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 385-194 (66.5%) for +53.35 units and an ROI of 9.2%!
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-137 vs AZ)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 133-107 for -4.88 units and an ROI of -2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-143 vs WSH), MIAMI (-108 at STL), LA ANGELS (+109 vs ATH)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 24-22 for –5.72 units (ROI -12.4%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PITTSBURGH (-194 vs CIN)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 86-112 for +0.54 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect; however, it has lost almost 9.29 units over the last two-and-a-half weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+113 at CWS), SAN FRANCISCO (+100 vs ATL)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 38-21 for -8.70 units, ROI -14.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-194 vs CIN), MILWAUKEE (-267 vs CHC)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 161-199 for -20.09 units. This ROI of -5.6% is still highly advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect…YET
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-107 vs TEX), SEATTLE (-110 at CLE), NY METS (+135 vs PHI), MIAMI (-108 at STL), COLORADO (+143 at MIN), LA ANGELS (+109 vs ATH)

Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 132-87 for +28.49 units, an ROI of +13%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-115 vs HOU), NY YANKEES (-115 at BOS), ATLANTA (-120 at SF)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 101-126 start for -20.65 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 42-58 for -16.28 units and an ROI of -16.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – ARIZONA (+114 at TB)
3+ games – HOUSTON (-105 at DET), PHILADELPHIA (-163 at NYM), CHICAGO CUBS (+215 at MIL), SAN DIEGO (+123 vs LAD)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 76-80 for +6.51 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+159 at PIT), WASHINGTON (+119 at BAL), MINNESOTA (-174 vs COL)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 487-390 for +40.41 units and an ROI of 4.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, SAN DIEGO

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 236-179 for +17.69 units and an ROI of 4.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-120 at SF)
*WATCH FOR ATHLETICS at LAA (-131 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 145-188 for -39.89 units and an ROI of -12% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+109 vs ATH), SAN FRANCISCO (+100 vs ATL)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 423-357 but for -81.49 units and an ROI of -10.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-143 vs WSH)
*WATCH FOR CLEVELAND vs SEA (-110 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 440-392 record for +42.62 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+114 at TB), PHILADELPHIA (-163 at NYM), COLORADO (+141 at MIN), ATHLETICS (-131 at LAA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2122-2007 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -269.22 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA, TAMPA BAY, ATHLETICS, PHILADELPHIA

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,151-2,725 (44.1%) for -269.86 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE, HOUSTON

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 647-536 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +25.35 units, for an ROI of 2.1%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-110 vs SEA)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 385-194 (66.5%) for +53.35 units and an ROI of 9.2%!
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-137 vs AZ)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 102-147 SU (-21.83 units, ROI: -8.8%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+215 at MIL)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 195-230 SU record for +40.87 units and an ROI of 9.6% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+113 at CWS), SAN FRANCISCO (+100 vs ATL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 305-313 run (+14.72 units, ROI: 2.4%).
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-120 at SF)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 36-73 (-9.16 units, ROI: -8.4%) in their last 109 tries.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+215 at MIL)

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 164-165 (-69.44 units, ROI: -21.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-267 vs CHC)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CHICAGO CUBS +215 (+35 diff), TORONTO -107 (+26), CINCINNATI +159 (+23), LA ANGELS +109 (+19), SAN DIEGO +123 (+18)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PHILADELPHIA -163 (+37 diff), ATLANTA -120 (+20), TAMPA BAY -137 (+18)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CHC-MIL OVER 7 (+1.0), SEA-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.7), LAD-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.7), WSH-BAL OVER 9 (+0.5), KC-CWS OVER 8.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: HOU-DET UNDER 9 (-1.0), PHI-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.9), NYY-BOS UNDER 9 (-0.7), ATL-SF UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), AZ-TB UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) CINCINNATI (37-42) at (902) PITTSBURGH (41-40)
Trend: CIN is 10-4 (+9.83 units) as a large underdog of +129 or more with starter Andrew Abbott the last few seasons
Trend: CIN is 8-5 (+4.26 units) on the road in divisional matchups with starter Andrew Abbott the last few seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+159 at PIT)
Trend: Over the total is 32-21 (+8.90 units) when PIT is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-PIT (o/u at 7.5)

(907) MIAMI (42-39) at (908) ST LOUIS (42-36)
Trend: Over the total is 22-10-3 (+11.00 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-STL (o/u at 8)
Trend: STL is 28-18 (+12.35 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-112 vs MIA)

(909) LOS ANGELES-NL (52-29) at (910) SAN DIEGO (42-37)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 39-16 (+8.63 units) against NL West competition since 2019 (including 1-0 (+1.00 unit) vs LAD last year)
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+123 vs LAD)

(911) ATLANTA (48-31) at (912) SAN FRANCISCO (33-47)
Trend: Over the total is 25-14-2 (+9.60 units) in ATL road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-SF (o/u at 8.5)

(915) TEXAS (39-42) at (916) TORONTO (39-42)
Trend: TEX is 18-26 (-12.11 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-1.5 at TOR)

(921) KANSAS CITY (34-48) at (922) CHICAGO-AL (41-38)
Trend: Under the total is 22-14-1 (+6.60 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-CWS (o/u at 8.5)

(923) ATHLETICS (39-42) at (924) LOS ANGELES-AL (34-48)
Trend: Under the total is 24-15-1 (+7.50 units) in ATH road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-LAA (o/u at 8.5)

(925) WASHINGTON (41-41) at (926) BALTIMORE (38-44)
Trend: WSH is 19-6 (+12.48 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+119 at BAL)
Trend: Over the total is 30-12-1 (+16.80 units) in WSH night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-BAL (o/u at 9)

(927) ARIZONA (41-39) at (928) TAMPA BAY (45-33)
Trend: AZ is 12-21 (-5.96 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+114 at TB)

Series #1: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee, Fri 6/26-Sun 6/28
Trend: Over the total is 15-8-1 (65.2%, +6.25 units) in the last 24 games of CHC-MIL head-to-head series at Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 27.2%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 7)

Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Fri 6/26-Sun 6/28
Trend: CINCINNATI is 7-20 (25.9%, -14.30 units) in the last 27 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -53%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+159 at PIT)

Series #20: Washington at Baltimore, Fri 6/26-Sun 6/28
Trend: Under the total is 18-4-1 (81.8%, +13.65 units) in the last 23 games between Washington and Baltimore
– The ROI on this trend is 59.3%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-BAL (o/u at 9)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, MINNESOTA, LA ANGELS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): CINCINNATI, BOSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, MINNESOTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, BALTIMORE

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, June 29)

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