MLB Best Bets Today June 26
All 30 teams will attempt to take the field on Friday night, but several games on the slate run the risk of rain delays or maybe even postponements. We’ll see if Mother Nature decides to be nice tonight and spare the slate from any cancellations, but it could be beneficial to play some Unders on starting pitcher props tonight, depending on the timing of the rain, especially in Baltimore and St. Louis.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 26:
Royals vs. White Sox Prediction
Pick: White Sox -136
Mitch Spence and David Sandlin have both spent a lot more time in the minors than the Majors this season, but they’ll open up this weekend set at Rate Field. Chicago had yesterday off, while the Royals got blown out 13-2 to make for an unhappy flight to ORD.
Spence has made two appearances for the Royals thus far and has allowed 12 runs on 11 hits in just eight innings of work with six walks against four strikeouts out of 41 batters faced. He had one start in the minors where he allowed 13 runs on 15 hits in just three innings, as he has a 6.47 ERA overall in 48.2 innings of work.
Sandlin has mowed his way through minor league hitters with a 1.32 ERA in 27.1 innings of work, including 35 strikeouts. He’s a wild child with 16 walks in that span and has a big BB% in the minors, but he’s also missed a lot of bats. Sandlin was a Royals draft pick and made it to High-A before he was part of the one-for-one John Schreiber trade. The White Sox got him for Jordan Hicks in February.
Lefties own a .301/.353/.515 slash and a .373 wOBA against Spence in 490 career plate appearances at the MLB level and Chicago will be able to run out seven of them against him tonight. Historically, the Royals aren’t a team that walks a ton, so maybe that will help Sandlin, especially in a start that should mean a lot to him.
The White Sox bullpen has been shaky at best of late, but yesterday’s off day came at a good time and the KC pen has been among the worst in baseball all season long.
Marlins vs. Cardinals Prediction
Pick: Marlins -105; 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+130)
Max Meyer was placed on the bereavement list, but didn’t miss a start, so he’s basically on his regular turn as the Marlins fire up a weekend set with the Cardinals. It will be Michael McGreevy for the Redbirds and you probably knew I was going to pick against him when you saw him on the slate.
McGreevy gave up five runs in five innings last time out, perhaps the start of the regression that has been building for a while. He sports a 3.35 ERA, but a 5.70 xERA and a 4.42 FIP in his 15 starts over 83.1 innings. He has an 82.1% LOB% with just a 15.9% K%. His contact management numbers are pretty average by starting pitcher standards, so I would expect his .258 BABIP to be on the rise as the season plays out.
The rest of season projection systems range from a 4.16 ERA to a 4.74 ERA for McGreevy, with THE BAT, developed by Derek Carty, with the highest numbers on his expectations. All of the projection systems regress his LOB% into the upper 60s and low 70s with his minuscule K%, so that’s something I’m expecting as well.
Meyer has been very good this season with a 2.80 ERA, 3.83 xERA, and a 3.33 FIP in 90 innings of work. He’s been about 1.5 runs worse from an ERA standpoint on the road, but he’s only +17 in BA, +8 in OBP, and +40 in SLG with a 16-point difference in wOBA, so he’s actually thrown the ball well, but just hasn’t gotten as rewarded for it. He has a 3.32 FIP at home and a 3.33 FIP on the road, with a 16.1% difference in LOB%. In other words, even though loanDepot Park is a good pitcher’s park, Meyer has still been very good on the road, including a higher K%.
Both teams were off yesterday, though Miami’s was a scheduled off day. That means both bullpens should be in good shape, but I really like Meyer over McGreevy, which should mean Miami’s high-leverage relievers get a chance.
