Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes – Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Day at Pimlico:
The Triple Crown season is off to a rough start here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, as it was a chalky result in the Kentucky Derby with Sovereignty outdueling Journalism, and then the disappointing news that Sovereignty would skip the Preakness at Pimlico. However, I’ve always said the Triple Crown isn’t meant to be easy and only the greats can win the three races in five weeks. The feat is special because it doesn’t happen every year, and it would cheapen the honor if they changed the spacing of the races now.
Despite the Preakness losing some luster on Saturday, we still have two exciting days of horse racing lined up, starting with Black-Eyed Susan Day on Friday. And I’ve also always said that we can only handicap the races they put in front of us. Let’s look for some live price plays here on the BES card. I’ll be back Friday to post my Preakness “takes” and the undercard.
Miss Preakness Stakes (Grade 3, $150,000)
Pimlico Race Course, Race 10, 4:07 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: The Miss Preakness is for 3-year-old fillies, but this is for sprinters, while the Black-Eyed Susan is for the top 3-year-olds going a mile and an eighth. With this race at six furlongs (and at Pimlico, which has the reputation of being speed-favoring), most handicappers will be looking for front-runners, but with so much speed in this race, I’m looking at the closers. #3 High Paf is a late-developing filly (like many in this field), but is a perfect two-for-two and still has a right to continue to improve. She also won both off the pace here in Maryland, though those races were at Laurel Park. At 12-1, we see her outrunning her odds and giving us a shot coming down the stretch at the upset.
Wagers: #3 High Paf to Win (and Place as long at double-digit odds).
Pimlico Special (Grade 3, $250,000)
Pimlico Race Course, Race 12, 5:10 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Pyrenees, who won this race last year, was the 8-5 morning-line favorite to repeat but is being scratched, leaving Star of Wonder and Phileas Fogg to vie for favoritism. But the scratch does make this race more wide-open. I think I’ve found the gelding to pull the upset of this route at a mile and a sixteenth. #4 Awesome Aaron won’t be the lone speed as #3 Encino will probably be running for the front, too, but I certainly like Awesome Aaron’s odds better at 12-1 as opposed to 6-1 for Encino. I’m only betting Win on Awesome Aaron, but instead of doing an Exacta Box like many people would do, I like to wheel two horses like this in a Trifecta to go for a bigger payout. And I’ll also put them in a tri wheel in first and third in case they get split (obviously, we’re hoping for another price horse to get in the tri with us, but this can still pay well with one of the chalk in there as we’ll have a price horse on top.
Wagers: #4 Awesome Aaron to Win (Place if double-digit odds) and Trifecta Wheel on 3,4 with 3,4 with ALL plus 3,4 with ALL with 3,4.
Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (Grade 2, $300,000)
Pimlico Race Course, Race 13, 5:44 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: None of these ran in the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago, so we have no superstar filly, but it’s a pretty competitive field. There’s no really consistent speed-burner here, so I’m taking a flier on #1 Liam in the Dust to inherit the lead from the rail and try to wire the field. She ran second to Paris Lily (another live mid-range priced filly in this race) the first time running a Lasix. Horses often run well their first time on the diuretic, but sometimes it takes another race for them to get comfortable with the full effect, so we could see that carry her to the winner’s circle.
Wagers: #1 Liam in the Dust to Win.
