Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes – Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby:
It’s a busy time of the sports betting year with March Madness setting the Final Four this weekend and baseball opening days behind us as well as NBA, NHL, and other sports ongoing, but we also have Kentucky Derby preps leading up to the First Saturday in May.
Tiztastic won a spot in the 20-horse Derby field last Saturday with a win in the Louisiana Derby at 7-1. That’s a nice payoff, but those who have followed our Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes here over the years know we’re looking for even juicier prices on some long shots. While most horse players are concentrating on the top 3-year-old contenders for the Kentucky Derby and betting them to win these qualifying races, we’re looking for the ones that are flying under the radar and can pull upsets in these preps and also get in the Churchill Downs starting gate.
This Saturday, we have two of the key prep races with the Florida Derby (which has produced a record 25 Kentucky Derby champions over the years) and the Arkansas Derby (the race Mystic Dan used as a prep last year for trainer Kenneth McPeek and American Pharoah used in 2015 prior to his Triple Crown run).
Florida Derby
Gulfstream Park, Race 14, 6:42 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Sovereignty, who won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth in the local prep for this race, is the 8-5 morning-line favorite and drew the outside No. 10 post, which adds to his vulnerability in our eyes (and he also has a new jockey with Junior Alvarado suffering a hairline fracture to his scapula). There is a short runup to the first turn of the 1 1/8- mile course at Gulfstream, so the No. 10 basically is starting farther out than you would normally think, though Sovereignty is a late runner so maybe it won’t hurt his chances that much. Still, we’d much rather have a speed horse on the inside to try to steal this race.
There are several candidates who should be sitting close to or just off the pace, but the clear front-runner appears to be Neoequos breaking from the No. 1 post. Neoequos set the pace over this track in the Fountain of Youth and gave it up in the stretch to finish a respectable third at 14-1. He certainly has the right to improve off his two-turn debut for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., who has already been quoted as saying he’s sending him to the lead. I’ve seen this many times where other connections know who the lone speed is and assume they’ll wear themself out and be able to get run down in the stretch, but the horse goes gate-to-wire.
Wagers: No. 1 Neoequos to Win and Place (I wouldn’t blame anyone for betting a saver Exacta with #10 Sovereignty over No. 1 Neoequos, though I’ve probably use a Trifecta Wheel using 1,10 with 1,10 with ALL and 1,10 with ALL with 1,10 to hit the tri if they run first and second or first and third and hopefully catch another long shot in there).
Arkansas Derby
Oaklawn Park, Race 13, 7:48 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Bob Baffert’s Cornucopian is making only his second career start, but is clearly not flying under the radar as the 7-5 morning-line favorite. He obviously needs points to get in the Kentucky Derby field with just a maiden victory to his credit, so he’s a major threat and can’t be ignored. Note: Usually, a maiden winner would be one of those unknown colts overlooked by the betting public, but not from the Baffert barn. Cornucopian, like Sovereignty, also drew the outside post in this nine-horse field, though that shouldn’t be as much of a detriment at Oaklawn.
Still, it does give us little more hope in finding a live price horse, and I’ve found mine in No. 4 Bestfriend Rocket, who should be able to sit just off the pace with a morning line of 20-1. Bestfriend Rocket is from the barn of one of my all-time favorite trainers, Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, who has had just as much success with long shots as with his blue-blood favorites, though Bestfriend Rocket is a son of Curlin, so he has the pedigree, too. Bestfriend Rocket is stepping up in class off of two wins in optional claiming races (the last of which was over this track with first-time Lasix, both of which are good signs in my book), but if Lukas is moving him to the stakes level and the Derby trail, who am I to argue.
Wagers: No. 4 Bestfriend Rocket to Win and Place.
