(Note: updated after Saturday’s early scratches.)
Team Tuley continues to look for value from coast to coast, and this Saturday we have plays at Aqueduct, Keeneland and Oaklawn.
John Lauro and yours truly posted our spot plays late Friday night/early Saturday morning and then Rampart race & sports books manager Duane Colucci and our longtime friend Ed Sehon (who is on location at Keeneland) add their plays after Saturday’s early scratches. Colucci’s top pick in Keeneland’s Lexington Stakes gives us three different opinions on that race, while he also tackles the Late Pick 4 at Aqueduct and then goes against Sehon in the Late Pick 4 at Keeneland (with several common plays between their two tickets for you to build your own).
Good luck today (and every day).
SATURDAY
Keeneland Race No. 5 (3:18 p.m. ET/12:18 p.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes #11 Lemon and Diem (8-1 morning line). “It’s no surprise that the newly gelded son of fast father Carpe Diem and the grandson of multiple-stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid cost $475,000 as a yearling. However, it is surprising that owners, after only three so-so races, are offering him today for $20,000. Previously trained by top conditioner Steve Asmussen, new stable stretches him out, adds blinkers and names up-and-comer Adam Beschizza to ride in an effort to break his maiden. Lemon and Diem sounds like a Keeneland spring winner to me. Wager: Bet 11 to Win and box in Exactas with 1,3,7.”
Aqueduct Race Nos. 6-9 (4:07 p.m. ET/1:07 p.m. PT)
Duane Colucci likes the following $.50 Pick 4 (cost $54)
Race 6: 1,4,6
Race 7: 5,7,8
Race 8: 2,4,7,8
Race 9: 2,9,10
Keeneland Race Nos. 8-11 (4:57 p.m. ET/1:57 p.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes the following $.50 Pick 4 (cost $60)
Race 8: 1,2,3,6,10
Race 9: 7
Race 10: ALL
Race 11: 3,7,8,11
Duane Colucci likes the following $.50 Pick 4 (cost $72)
Race 8: 1,3,6,10
Race 9: 2,5,6,7
Race 10: 2,3,4
Race 11: 7,8,11
Aqueduct Race No. 8 (5:19 p.m. ET/2:19 p.m. PT)
Dave Tuley likes #2 Rinaldi (9-2 morning line) in the $100,000 Danger’s Hour Stakes. “Rinaldi is making his 5-year-old debut, but if he breaks well he should be the speed of the speed and steal this at a decent price. Trainer James Bond has him placed at the right level and is 50% (3-for-6) the past two months when using jockey Trevor McCarthy. The only threat on the front end is #9 Hieronymus, also coming off a long layoff, so I’ll box the 2 and 9 in case they lead this group around the track.”
Keeneland Race No. 9 (5:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. PT)
John Lauro likes #1 Noble Reflection (15-1 morning line) in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes. “Noble Reflection is a new star in the making. It’s a tough jump from maiden to stakes race, but he won so impressively last time I’m sure it’s difficult to find a spot for him. He has the talent and should take them all the way on Saturday from the rail.”
Dave Tuley likes #4 It’s My House (30-1). “I also like Noble Reflection (and almost made him my top pick in the Lexington) if he’s able to grab the early lead and slow down the pace a little. However, I think the better price play is #4 It’s My House. He’s being dismissed at 30-1 as he’s coming from Golden Gate via Turf Paradise, but I see Umberto Rispoli keeping him just off the pace with a chance to really blow up the Keeneland tote board. If both horses go off at their morning-line prices, I have no problem betting both to Win. I’ll also be using both in the exotics. A 1-4 finish in either order (or even running first and third) would be fine by me as I’ll be wheeling them in trifectas!”
Duane Colucci likes #2 Swiftsure (5-1). “One of Steve Asmussen’s last Derby hopefuls stretches out here for the first time after two easy sprint victories. He is capable over most surfaces, winning at both Fair Grounds and Oaklawn, and with rain in the forecast his Uncle Mo breeding with a dash of Speightstown should do the trick. Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle doesn’t hurt either. Bet 2 to Win and key 2 over 5,6 & 7 in exactas and trifectas and reverse.”
Oaklawn Race No. 11 (7:05 p.m. ET/4:05 p.m. PT)
Ed Sehon likes #4 Strike Power (5-1 morning line) in the Grade 2 Count Fleet Handicap. “This race attracts a field of seven speedsters, including odds-on favorite Whitmore, who will be ridden by Steve Asmussen barn go-to guy Ricardo Santana Jr. With his defection, Asmussen picks up the services of nation’s hottest rider, Joel Rosario, who ships in from Keeneland and inherits the mount on my choice. It’s hard not to like powerful trio of trainer, jockey and horse to complete this winning, value-priced assignment. Wager: Win & Place.”
Oaklawn Race No. 12 (7:41 p.m. ET/4:41 p.m. PT)
John Lauro likes #5 Concert Tour (1-1 morning line) in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. “Concert Tour has a huge speed edge.” (Author’s note: I’ve written in this space earlier that I have part of some Kentucky Derby futures on Concert Tour, but while I’m also cheering for him to win the Arkansas Derby, I’m even more hopeful that Bob Baffert’s colt comes out of the race healthy and moves on to Churchill Downs on the First Saturday in May. — Dave)
