Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes – Preakness Stakes Day at Pimlico:
A cloud is hanging over Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland, and it has nothing to do with the rain in the weather forecast. There’s no possibility of a Triple Crown this year with trainer Bill Mott and the connections of Sovereignty deciding to have the Kentucky Derby winner skip Saturday’s Preakness and instead aim for the Belmont in three weeks. But as I wrote in Friday’s “takes” on the Black-Eyed Susan card at Pimlico, we believe in the Tuley’s Takes home office that we can only handicap the races they put in front of u, and there are plenty of betting opportunities on this weekend’s horse racing card.
Let’s look for some live price plays here on the undercard and then the Preakness, which is still a classic and worth winning for all involved (including us handicappers/bettors).
Sir Barton Stakes ($100,000)
Pimlico Race Course, Race 10, 4:11 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: The Sir Barton is a staple of the Preakness undercard for three-year-olds that are either late-developing or a cut below the Triple Crown colts. We’ll be monitoring the prior races on the dirt. If the speed is holding, especially in the mud or slop, but either way, we’re looking for a front-runner as that’s usually the way to win at Pimlico, and we don’t expect the main track to play any different on Saturday. #1 Crudo is the 5-2 second choice behind #6 Invictus and the main threat to a long shot front-runner going gate to wire, but I’m landing on #4 Mr. Bogan at 20-1. He’s consistently on or near the lead and can get the mile and a sixteenth distance. In fact, his last win was in the slop at Parx at a mile under jockey Mychel Sanchez. Another speedster I was considering was #3 Bear Claw Necklace, but he’s not as proven. But also put me down for a saver Exacta Box just in case.
Wagers: #4 Mr. Bogan to Win and Place, plus Exacta Box on 1-3-4-6.
Dinner Party Stakes (Grade 3, $250,000)
Pimlico Race Course, Race 12, 5:52 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: This is the turf race before the Preakness. Last year, #6 Balnikhov rallied from eighth place at the half-mile mark to win this mile-and-an-eighth race last year on a soft turf course, and we’re looking for a closer again. There’s not an obvious rabbit in here to set a fast pace, but plenty of horses that like to be near the lead. One will probably set some faster fractions for the closer to run into. I like #3 Signator, who has turned around his career with back-to-back wins since switching the turf, including an ungraded $100,000 stakes last month at Laurel.
Wagers: #3 Signator to Win (Place if double-digit odds) and an Exacta Box on 3-6.
Preakness Stakes (Grade 1, $2 million)
Pimlico Race Course, Race 13, 7:01 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: The Triple Crown colts are back for the second leg, led by #2 Journalism, who lost the Derby as the 3-1 favorite by a length and a half to Sovereignty. We were disappointed in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we felt we handicapped the 19-horse Derby field as we landed on price horses Baeza (third) and Final Gambit (fourth) and woulda hit the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta if we had used Sovereignty instead of Sandman (of course, not having the actual winner isn’t anything to brag about!). Anyway, we like the ultra-consistent Journalism again, but not betting him to Win at 8-5. My top Preakness value play is #3 American Promise. He certainly got a lot of support in the Derby as he went off at 12-1 as the so-called “wise-guy horse,” but was compromised by getting bumped early and basically jogging around Churchill Downs for what I call a public workout. The son of Triple Crown winner Justify should have a much easier time getting the lead in just a nine-horse field at Pimlico and hopefully go wire-to-wire for legendary Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas (who stole this race last year with Seize the Gray the same way). Like I did in the Pimlico Special on Friday, I’ll eschew an Exacta Box with American Promise and Journalism and instead do a Trifecta Wheel using those two with the rest of the field (and hopefully catching a price horse in the other spot).
Wagers: #3 American Promise to Win and Place, plus Trifecta Wheel using 2,3 with 2,3 with ALL and also 2,3 with ALL with 2,3 in case we get split.
