Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes: Saratoga, Kentucky Downs and Del Mar for Saturday, August 30:
We’re always loved summer horse racing here in the Tuley’s Take home office, even when I lived in the Chicago suburbs in the early 1990s before I worked for Daily Racing Form. Even though I had bet on football, basketball and baseball games before, I really cut my gambling teeth at Arlington International Racecourse during those summer meets where the marquee race was the Arlington Million.
A lot of people feel the Travers is the best summer race since it’s for 3-year-olds. I had a winning Saturday last week on Travers Day at Saratoga as I had live long shots in two of the races I posted here at VSiN with Captain Hook (20-1) in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes and Bracket Buster (17-1) in the Travers Stakes, but while both had the lead in their races, both finished second to the favorites, Patch Adams and Sovereignty. The payoffs would have been much higher if the chalk hadn’t finished on top, but at least the Patch Adams-Captain Hook exacta paid $108.50 for $2 and the $1 trifecta with Barnes third paid $379 for $1 to make my day..
Since moving to Phoenix with DRF in 1994 and then Las Vegas, the Pacific Classic at Del Mar is considered the top summer race here on the left coast (or desert).
So, we’re excited about the Pacific Classic this Saturday, and we get bonus summer racing at Kentucky Downs, just 20 yards from VSiN’s very own studio at the brand-new Circa Sports book at the Mint Gaming Hall in Franklin, Kentucky.
Let’s start with some of their races (plus one from Saratoga) before the Pacific Classic on an exciting day for horse racing.
Grade 2, $2 million, Mint Kentucky Turf Sprint
Kentucky Downs Race No. 9, 4:52 p.m. ET/1:52 p.m. PT
One of my favorite old-time gambling sayings is: “The race does not always go to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.” I thought of that immediately when handicapping this six-furlong turf sprint. Most turf races are won by closers, so a lot of connections will instruct their jockeys to sit off the pace in anticipation of needing to come from behind, but that means we can often find value on speed horses that are let loose on the lead and never get caught. That’s what we hope happens with #5 Bear River (20-1), who is consistently on or near the lead in most of his races, and that includes mostly sprints at the even shorter distance of 5.5 furlongs. I’ll skip the exotics in this race and just bet this long shot straight.
Tuley’s Take: #5 Bear River to Win and Place
Grade 2, $500,000, Flower Bowl Invitational
Saratoga Race No. 10, 5:02 p.m. ET/2:02 p.m. PT
Many will say the Grade 1 Spinaway for 2-year-old fillies is the featured race in upstate New York on Saturday, but even though the Flower Bowl is a Grade 2, it has a richer purse for fillies and mares, 4 years old and up. And it’s a better betting race in my opinion. #5 In Time (15-1) is stepping up in class, and I see jockey Dylan Davis being able to rate behind the front-runners. That’s the 6-year-old mare’s usual running style, but last time out her opponents let her set soft fractions under Davis and went wire-to-wire, so maybe we can win it that way. Either way, anything over double digits is a fair price in a relatively evenly matched race with no overwhelming favorite.
Tuley’s Take: #5 In Time to Win and Place
Grade 3, $3.5 million, Nashville Derby Invitational
Kentucky Downs Race No. 10, 5:46 p.m. ET/2:46 p.m. PT
Let’s go back to Kentucky Downs for its featured race in the Nashville Derby. Since it’s a “Derby,” that means it’s for 3-year-olds. Four entrants ran in this year’s Kentucky Derby, with Final Gambit finishing fourth, Burnham Square came in sixth, the very popular Sandman (closed at 5-1) ran seventh and Tiztastic was 10th. The morning-line favorite is Wimbledon Hawkeye at lukewarm odds of 7-2, and we’ll definitely try to beat him as he’s just 2-for-11 lifetime and making his first U.S. start (not that foreign invaders can’t win off the plane, but certainly worth fading). There are a couple of colts that have flashed speed on occasion, but no balls-to-the-wall speedster, so I’m looking for who could inherit the lead and maybe go the distance. I’ve landed on #4 Tomasello (20-1). This son of Authentic took five starts to break his maiden, but has now won 3-of-4 while moving up the ranks, including winning a minor stakes race at Ellis Park last time out
Tuley’s Take: #4 Tomasello to Win and Place
Grade 1, $1 million, Pacific Classic
Del Mar Race No. 10, 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT
And now we come to the Pacific Classic, aka the hateful eight with an eight-horse field. Once upon a time in Hollywood, er, Louisville, two of these contenders went off as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby as Fierceness (3-1) was the 2024 Derby fave and Journalism (9-5) was this year’s chalk – both of whom lost the Run For The Roses – but the morning-line fave here is actually Nysos (8-5), trained by Bob Baffert. But you know I’m taking those short prices. That would kill Bill, my boss here at VSiN, as he knows I’m more likely to wager on reservoir dogs. Instead, let’s take a flier on #8 Tarantino (20-1), who has some sneaky early fractions and has a chance to get an uncontested lead. I don’t see any other horse to challenge Tarantino for the lead if jockey Edwin Maldonado goes for the gusto, and if they can slow it down, hopefully Tarantino will have something left to hold off the top contenders down the stretch. I’m not just writing pulp fiction here..
Tuley’s Take: #8 Tarantino to Win and Place
