Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes – Travers Stakes Day at Saratoga:
The Travers Stakes is known as the “Summer Classic” for 3-year-olds, as it’s held just a few short months after the Triple Crown. A lot of people are saying this year’s Travers has lost a lot of luster because Sovereignty won the Kentucky Derby. Then, after trainer Bill Mott decided to have the horse skip the Preakness, Sovereignty defeated the Preakness winner Journalism in the Belmont. That has led to just a five-horse field in Saturday’s Travers.
I don’t buy the old adage “He’s scaring off all the competition” as it’s still a $1.25 million race, but the fact is Journalism and Baeza (third to Sovereignty and Journalism in the Derby and Preakness and then second to Sovereignty in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, the longtime prep race for the Travers at Saratoga) are staying in California to prep for the Breeders’ Cup this fall.
However, you know me. I’m not going to assume this is going to be a walkover for Sovereignty, as the connections of the other four 3-year-old colts have been aiming for this historic race as well and have to be emboldened because Saratoga has long had the title of “Graveyard of Favorites.”
We also like that there’s a very strong undercard, so let’s take a look at some of those races leading up to the featured Travers.
Grade 1, $500,000, H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes
Saratoga Race No. 10, 4:22 p.m. ET/1:22 p.m. PT
I’m looking for a speedster in the seven-furlong Jerkens. This distance is frequently viewed as an in-between of the usual North American sprints at six furlongs and the route rates at a mile or more (though there are one-turn miles that some consider closer to sprints). But while closers can certainly win in sprints (and I will often look that way if there’s just too much speed that runs each other into the ground), I generally still look to the fastest horse to go wire to wire in sprints.
The old saying applies: “The race doesn’t always go to the swiftest, but that’s the way to bet!” So I’ve landed on #2 Midland Money (8-1) as my value play in the Jerkens. He’s 2-for-2 lifetime with both being wire-to-wire victories at Santa Anita and here at Saratoga for trainer Bob Baffert, so you know he’ll be gunning for the lead. Midland Money is stepping up in class, but we’ll trust Baffert is confident he can handle this competition.
As I said in my video for VSiN and 1/ST BET, I don’t have any strong opinion on the rest of the field, though my 1-2-3-4 for the Betting Guide was completed by #1 Patch Adams (the lukewarm 3-1 morning-line favorite), #3 Barnes (9-2) and longshot #7 Captain Cook (12-1). In the video, I also gave a $100 bankroll with a $65 Win bet on #2 Midland Money and a $5 Exacta Wheel with ALL over Midland Money (costs $35 for a total of $100), however …
Tuley’s Take: I’ve been thinking about it more the past couple of days and I’m leaning toward a $15 flier on #7 Captain Cook in case my top choice doesn’t fire, and lower the Win bet to $50 on #2 Midland Money, plus the $5 Exacta Wheel with All over the 2.
Grade 1, $500,000, Ballerina Stakes
Saratoga Race No. 11, 4:59 p.m. ET/1:59 p.m. PT
The Ballerina for fillies and mares is also at seven furlongs, but this time I think the value play is on a closer in #3 Majestic Oops (15-1). This 5-year-old mare with seven lifetime wins should be sitting off the pace, but not far off of it for jockey Kendrick Carmouche to set up her late kick. #9 Hope Road (3-1) should set the early pace, but the favorite #7 Scylla (5-2) is the main danger as she should be back with Majestic Oops but hopefully she’s farther back and our top choice gets first run on her. Another threat in my mind is #1 Mystic Lake (10-1), so let’s use those three in an Exacta Box and hope they’re running together late.
Tuley’s Take: #3 Majestic Oops to Win (and Place if 10-1 or higher), plus an Exacta Box using 1,3,7.
Grade 1, $500,000, Forego Stakes
Saratoga Race No. 12, 5:36 p.m. ET/2:36 p.m. PT
Just like in the Jerkens, we’ll flip back to speed in the Forego. There’s a bunch of colts and geldings with 1’s early in their past performances, but #3 Full Moon Madness is the one that catches my eye at 20-1 because he was doing it at six furlongs and is a true sprinter. The other early pace contenders have been doing it in routes. Full Moon Madness knows how to find the winner’s circle with five wins in 15 starts and can also sit just off the pace and doesn’t need the lead. However, I think our best chance is if Carmouche tries to steal it on the front end.
Tuley’s Take: #3 Full Moon Madness to Win and Place.
Grade 1, $1.25 million, Travers Stakes
Saratoga Race No. 13, 6:14 p.m. ET/3:14 p.m.
Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Sovereignty is a monster, so we just have a five-horse field in the Travers. The only way for me to play this is on the nose of #2 Bracket Buster (Win only) to steal this on the lead. Bracket Buster didn’t run his race last time when finishing fourth to Journalism in the Haskell, but we’re looking for better effort here as the other front-runner (#1 Magnitude) isn’t a real speedball, so Luis Saez should be able to relax Bracket Buster on the lead and have something left for the stretch. And at 20-1, he’s worth a flier (I’d pass if we were only getting single-digit odds). Sovereignty is the obvious danger, as he shouldn’t have any traffic concerns, and the Exacta won’t pay much either way if he finished first or second, so Win or bust with Bracket Buster!
Tuley’s Take: #2 Bracket Buster to Win and Place.
For the record, this was my 1-2-3-4 order of finish that we put in the 1ST/BET Betting Guide earlier this week in case you want to dabble in the exotics.
1-#2 Bracket Buster (20-1)
2-#4 Sovereignty (2-5)
3-#1 Magnitude (2-1)
4 (Long Shot)-#5 McAfee (20-1)
