VSiN Expert Kentucky Derby Best Bets:
Our VSiN experts share their best bets for the 151st Run for the Roses.
Dave Tuley
The Kentucky Derby, which is limited to 3-year-old race horses, is as much of an American rite of spring as the start of the baseball season and the Masters.
This is the 151st Run for the Roses has traditionally been run on the first Saturday in May, but that hasn’t always been the case. The inaugural Derby was run in 1875 on May 17 (the third Saturday in May) and was mostly run on the second or third Saturday of the month (with the notable exception of the fourth Saturday in April on April 29, 1901) for more than 50 years. It’s been run on the first Saturday in May since May 7, 1932, except for when the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic pushed it back to Sept. 5 (the First Saturday in September).
It’s probably obvious, but the top contenders are generally considered to be the winners of the major prep races that have been run this spring. However, the favorite has failed to win the last six Derbys since Justify in 2018.
For the purposes of this VSiN Betting Guide, I’m going to break down the horses I’m considering into the most likely winner (for those who like to bet the favorites or top contenders and who aren’t as adverse to chalk like yours truly), then the top value plays I’m considering at this guide’s deadline earlier this week. Later in the week, I’ll return to VSiN.com with my final “takes” on the Derby with expanded analysis and more exotic tickets as we try to blow up the tote board at Churchill Downs.
MOST LIKELY WINNER
#8 Journalism (3-1 morning line): The well-bred son of Curlin is certainly a deserving morning-line favorite with four straight wins, including three graded stakes in California topped off by his even-money victory in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. I kind of have a rooting interest for him, as I’ve long considered myself an old-school journalist first/handicapper second in the horse racing/sports betting space. My “dog or pass” philosophy precludes me from betting him straight, but I will be using Journalism in my exotic wagers as I can’t dismiss him despite the huge 20-horse field. He also has a great draw in the No. 8 hole that suits his off-the-pace running style and should help him avoid traffic problems, though you never know (again, see the last six years’ results). The only other colts under 10-1 on the morning line are #18 Sovereignty (5-1) and #17 Sandman (6-1), but they’ll be on much fewer of my tickets.
LONGSHOTS TO CONSIDER
#3 Final Gambit (30-1): Last year, my early-week Derby choice was Dornoch. I loved him at 15-1, even though he was breaking from the rail. He ran into early trouble and finished 10th. I still believe I had the right colt. but just in the wrong race as he came back five weeks later and vindicated us with an upset win at 17-1. This year, I don’t have any one 3-year-old that stands out, but several live long shots that I’m still deciding how I’m going to bet them. Our first price play – and with a 20-horse field I certainly think we can break our rule of betting just one horse to Win as it’s helped us cash some nice tickets over the years, including (War Emblem and Giacomo – even when our top choice didn’t fire is Final Gambit. He will be able to drop back well off what should be a torrid pace and save ground all the way around the Churchill track to set up his late drive down the stretch. Look at his victory in his last race in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park at 15-1 when he came from 11th place to win by three and a half lengths.
#14 Tiztastic (20-1): This is another deep closer ridden by jockey Joel Rosario that started ninth of 10 in the Louisiana Derby but came out strong to win by two and a quarter lengths. He has been inconsistent, but of course it only matters for these Derby hopefuls and their connections how they show up on the first Saturday in May. Not many of these colts have a win at Churchill Downs (Sovereignty being a notable exception in the Grade 3 Street Sense last October), but at least Tiztastic has a second and a third in graded stakes last October and November, so we’re hoping that keeps him from being one those who doesn’t like the track.
#21 Baeza (12-1): If you’re reading in the middle of the week, don’t sleep on the “also-eligible” horse, #21 Baeza (who must have another scratch from the race for him to draw in), like nearly everyone did three years ago in 2022 when #21 Rich Strike shocked the world at 80-1. Baeza didn’t earn enough points in prep races to make the 20-horse field, but is a late-developing colt that didn’t race until December and took three races to break his maiden. However, his lone stakes race was a runner-up finish to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, only losing by three-quarters of a length, so he certainly has the right to take another big step forward. If Baeza does get in the starting gate, he won’t be discarded as much as Rich Strike was, as evidenced by the morning-line maker putting 12-1 odds on him (but there will still be a lot of people who will still be clueless).
See you at VSiN.com with our updated “takes” later in the week, both for Oaks Day on Friday and of course Derby Day on Saturday when I finalize my top value play and other wagers. Happy Handicapping!
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Ed Sehon
I cannot recall a year with so many legitimate win candidates. I narrowed my top selections to these six for my column on Saturday: East Avenue, Publisher, Burnham Square, Journalism, Tappan Street (subsequently scratched) and Citizen Bull.
After further consideration, I reduced my number of win candidates to three. It was easy to include BURNHAM SQUARE among my top ones. His come-from-behind victory in the Blue Grass at Keeneland last month was excellent, convincing me he can handle the added Derby distance.
According to Beyer Speed Figures (BSF), every time he runs, he runs faster. I’m impressed. There’s nothing difficult about including morning line favorite JOURNALISM among my top selections. Riding a four-race win streak vs. the best of the West, he also sports impressive BSF. If he had earned those credentials against tougher East Coast competitors, he’d be at the top of my list. There’s nothing tough about a recovering journalist and hunch-playing grinder picking him.
My choice to win the Kentucky Derby is longshot EAST AVENUE, who appears to be sitting on the best effort of his brief lifetime. The 22-point leap in his BSF from the Risen Star to his Place finish in the Blue Grass especially caught my eye. In addition, he comes from the red-hot Brendan Walsh barn, which enjoyed an excellent recently-concluded Keeneland meet and is off to a fast start at Churchill. Finally, over the past few years, I’ve come to believe that East Avenue’s rider, Manny Franco, is one of the finest and least-appreciated jockeys in the game. Mr. Ed’s putting his money on the continually improving horse, hot barn and sharp jockey.
EAST AVENUE (20-1)
JOURNALISM (3-1)
BURNHAM SQUARE (12-1)
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Aaron Halterman
Top 4:
#8 Journalism
#14 Tiztastic
#17 Sandman
#18 Sovereignty
Journalism has been number one on my list for several months now, and he’s given me no reason to doubt him heading into the race. His Santa Anita Derby effort was great, and he seems to be a horse that will only get better as the distances get longer. He also drew a perfect post position for this one, which is very important in this race, especially when you are coming from off the pace.
Tiztastic is the long shot I like best in this year’s running of the Kentucky Derby. He showed he can weave through traffic last time when taking home the Louisiana Derby, which is important for a horse that will be coming from behind. The horse also loved stretching out in distance last time out, which was no surprise, since he has a pedigree that suggests he can run all day long.
Sandman has a ton of raw ability, but has been a bit immature throughout his career. He finally put it together last time out with a nice Arkansas Derby victory, and is another horse that should love running longer today. However, I’m a tad concerned that this massive field size, and rowdy Churchill Downs crowd, might throw him off his game.
Sovereignty was disappointing in the Florida Derby, but I still believe he has a shot at running an improved race today, mainly because of trainer Bill Mott. He has a knack for getting his horses ready to run their best on the biggest day, so look for this one to be ready to roll once they hit the top of the stretch.
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Jeremy Plonk (1/ST BET)
My dear friend and late NBC Sports reporter Bob Neumeier often reminded us that the Kentucky Derby can cause paralysis by analysis. Neumy knew that overthinking America’s most important horse race was as dangerous as being unprepared.
My experience handicapping this race professionally for more than 30 years boils down to two scenarios. One, the best horse wins. Or two, the pace (tempo) of the race melts down and it becomes a late-running mad scrum with a winner hardly anyone saw coming.
Upsets almost never happen with front-running longshots, and pace meltdowns rarely are won by horses at low or mid-range odds. Do you trust the best horses in Kentucky Derby 151 this Saturday? Those would appear to be Journalism, the Santa Anita Derby winner, and Sovereignty, the Florida Derby runner-up. If the answer is no, advance to the wild longshots line. If yes, we’re in the same camp this year.
Journalism stands out off four straight victories over three different tracks in California. He’s been as good at Santa Anita as Del Mar and Los Alamitos and should handle the surface at Churchill Downs. He’s trained well since arriving. His late pace figures are the best in the field, and he’s not having to fire from the clouds. Journalism’s midpack style and finishing ability should see him already in lead contention around the far turn. Sovereignty should be rallying from farther back and could find more traffic to navigate. But he’s a strong contender with a clean trip.
I’d never recommend win bets at shorter odds in the Kentucky Derby. Too many things can go wrong to take single-digit odds. The beauty of the Derby gambling is the trifectas and superfectas, where the 20-horse field and parimutuel betting system create massive payoffs due to the number of potential combinations. The losing tickets pay the winners in this game, and we hope to be on the winning end by keying Journalism in the top spot in the exotic wagers. Mix in Sovereignty, the Japanese runners Luxor Café and Admire Daytona, as well as the deep-closing longshot Final Gambit in the remaining spots of the trifectas and superfectas.
Derby Selections:
Journalism
Luxor Café
Sovereignty
Final Gambit
As for Friday’s Kentucky Oaks, there’s no major knock on the favorite Good Cheer as she eyes a seventh straight victory. But the pace doesn’t look overly fast and front-running duties should be shared by Simply Joking and La Cara. Work in at least one of those speeds on top of the exacta, mingling with the favorite Good Cheer and the late-running Ballerina d’Oro.
Oaks Selections:
Simply Joking
La Cara
Good Cheer
Ballerina d’Oro
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Millie Ball (1/ST BET)
I think we’re going to have a wickedly fast pace this year with as many as six horses jostling early for the lead position. I’ve narrowed it down to four horses based on the pace we expect and those that can handle the mile-and-one-quarter distance. Rodriguez is the only early speed horse that I’ll include, thanks in part to veteran jockey Mike Smith.
Luxor Cafe has the right pedigree from Japan and he’s got the ability. Journalism has done absolutely nothing wrong and I loved his workout at Churchill Downs. His connections, jockey Umberto Rispoli and trainer Michael McCarthy, are light on Kentucky Derby experience if you’re looking for any potential flaw.
Sovereignty is a sharper horse going into the Kentucky Derby than he was going into his second-place finish in the Florida Derby. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott backed off on his training a bit since he had already qualified for the Kentucky Derby on points. He will be finishing strongest of all and is my top pick. I’ll box these four in the exactas.
Derby Selections:
Sovereignty
Luxor Cafe
Journalism
Rodriguez
