2024 MLB American League Cy Young Award Odds and Analysis

Zachary Cohen takes a look at the American League Cy Young Award odds and gives you an idea of how you should bet this market.

Sep 21, 2023; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 MLB season is right around the corner, which is why Adam Burke already put out a free MLB Betting Primer. That guide will tell you everything you need to know about how you should be betting on baseball. More specifically, Adam goes into the strategy of betting on baseball, and he also tells you how to utilize sabermetrics. Soon, Adam will go in more depth to provide you with team-by-team analysis to really have you feeling ready to go. However, we also know that there’s a real hunger to bet on futures markets. And that’s especially true about player awards. That said, keep reading for a look at the American League Cy Young Award odds. 

American League Cy Young Odds 

All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Monday, February 26th

  • Gerrit Cole (+500)
  • Kevin Gausman (+700)
  • Framber Valdez (+750)
  • Corbin Burnes (10-1)
  • Pablo Lopez (12-1)
  • Luis Castillo (13-1)
  • George Kirby (14-1)
  • Tarik Skubal (16-1)
  • Logan Gilbert (25-1)
  • Dylan Cease (25-1)

(You can find the rest of the AL Cy Young Award odds by clicking here)

American League Cy Young Award Favorite

Gerrit Cole (+500): The 2023 season wasn’t a good one for the New York Yankees, but Cole was one of the few bright spots. The righty went 15-4 with a 2.63 ERA and struck out 222 hitters in 209.0 innings of work. Cole also had the best WHIP in baseball at 0.98, marking the third time in his career that the number was below 1.00. The 33-year-old also had the highest WAR (7.4) in the league, clearing Blake Snell by 1.4. There’s simply no denying that Cole is the best pitcher in the American League, which is why he won this thing last year. He’s deservedly the betting favorite to win this award again. 

American League Cy Young Award Pick To Win

Corbin Burnes (10-1): Cole has a very good chance of repeating as the Cy Young winner in the American League. However, the odds on Burnes to get the job done are pretty enticing. Burnes had a down year in 2023, going just 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA and 200 strikeouts in 193.2 innings of work. But Burnes has proven that he is capable of performing at a much higher level than that, and there’s no real reason to believe that he’s dropping off. Burnes is only 29 years old and he’s two years removed from winning in the National League. Look for the righty to get back to being one of the more electric swing-and-miss pitchers in baseball. Also, Burnes is moving to Camden Yards, which EV Analytics has as the fifth-most pitcher friendly park in the league. On top of that, the Orioles are an exciting team with real expectations this year. So, if Burnes pitches well for a Baltimore team that wins a lot of games, there will be some real buzz surrounding him. 

American League Cy Young Award Long Shot

Grayson Rodriguez (30-1): Rodriguez’s poor performance against the Texas Rangers in the postseason definitely left a bad taste in the mouths of many. The 24-year-old gave up five earned runs on six hits in only 1.2 innings in his one playoff appearance. But that one poor outing doesn’t undo everything he did last year. Once the calendar turned to July, Rodriguez was stellar for Baltimore. The righty entered that month with a 7.35 ERA, but he got it all the way down to 4.35 by the end of the season. Along the way, Rodriguez had a start against the Tampa Bay Rays in which he threw 8.0 innings of shutout ball and struck out seven batters. 

Overall, it’s just hard to overlook the fact that Rodriguez was the second-ranked prospect in a stacked Baltimore system in 2022. The 2018 first-round pick has all the talent in the world, with a fastball that sits in the upper 90s and some other plus pitches to back up the pure power. It’s a matter of when, not if, Rodriguez will be competing for Cy Young Awards. So, I think it’s worth getting in now and hoping to be early.

Realistically, there are three Orioles that I think can win this. Burnes and Rodriguez are two of the better options, but Kyle Bradish is another popular option. Perhaps having a bit invested in all three is a good way to attack this market.