Braves vs. Padres Prediction
With a win in Game 2 against the Mets on Monday, the Braves made it a certainty that there will be a new National League champion this postseason. The Diamondbacks fell a game short of having a chance to defend their title, so it will not be a repeat winner in the NL.
For their troubles, though, the Braves won and then hopped a plane to San Diego to battle the Padres in Game 1 of the Wild Card series on Tuesday. Not only that, but with Chris Sale hurt, Atlanta is going well down the depth chart for the series opener. That will be a big story throughout and serves as an example of why teams need to take care of their affairs as quickly as possible.
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San Diego has none of those same concerns, as their rotation is set up and they’ve been ready to go for the last several days. They’re back in the playoffs after missing last season. Back in 2022, they went up against the Dodgers, who won the NL West by 22 games, and pulled the upset. They’re favored in this one in their quest for the first World Series title in franchise history.
All games will be played in San Diego at Petco Park, as they are the highest-seeded Wild Card team.
Let’s preview this series, the likely pitching matchups, and find some bets.
Braves vs. Padres NL Wild Card Schedule
Game 1: Tuesday October 1, 8:30 p.m. ET (Anderson vs. King)
Game 2: Wednesday October 2, 7:30 p.m. ET (Fried vs. Musgrove)
Game 3: Thursday October 3, 8:30 p.m. ET (Lopez vs. Cease) (if necessary)
(all pitching matchups are projected by me until otherwise announced)
How To Watch Braves vs. Padres
Games 1 and 3 are on ESPN, Game 2 is on ESPN2
Braves vs. Padres Series Odds
Atlanta Braves +150 // San Diego Padres -175
Over/Under 2.5 Games: -105 // -115
Braves vs. Padres NL Wild Card Preview
The Braves may opt to use Max Fried on short rest in Game 1, but they could also go with AJ Smith-Shawver, Ian Anderson, or Bryce Elder. We’ll have to see. Game 1 is so pivotal and the Game 3 starter could be Reynaldo Lopez, but he just came back from injury. He threw six innings on Saturday and an inning on Monday, so I think he might be able to get Thursday’s nod if a winner-take-all game is necessary.
The Braves get three righties from the Padres in this series and that looks to be a problem for a number of reasons. Atlanta’s lineup is very right-handed-heavy in the bottom half and also on the bench. Furthermore, this is a lineup that ranked well below average in that split all season long. The Padres, meanwhile, were a top-five offense against righties and just slightly outside the top five overall.
Musgrove might be the weak link of the pitching rotation for San Diego, as his 3.88 ERA and 4.34 xERA were quite a bit higher than what King and Cease were able to contribute. That said, Musgrove allowed two runs on 12 hits over his final 18.1 innings with 23 strikeouts against one walk, so it seems like he may have finally hit a groove after missing 10 weeks from late May to mid-August.
San Diego had the lowest K% in baseball this season at just 17.6%, 1.7% better than any other team. They put a ton of balls in play and pressure the defense and the pitching staff of the opposition. Atlanta was -1 in Outs Above Average per Statcast, so we’ll see if that has any bearing in this series. The Padres were slightly better than that at +3, for what it’s worth.
Both of these bullpens are quality units. The Padres have a ton of hard-throwers in their bullpen, but the Braves were ninth in wOBA and seventh in SLG against pitches 96+ mph. The Padres were actually top five in SLG and top 10 in wOBA, so this could potentially be a series with more offense than expected, although I do worry about Atlanta’s handedness like I mentioned above.
The biggest thing for me in this series is simply that the Padres should put a lot more balls in play than the Braves. There was a 6.5% K% difference between the two. King, Cease, and Musgrove were all over a strikeout per inning, with King and Cease well above that number.
With the tough situation for the Braves, I just think asking them to win two out of three here is a pretty big ask.
Pick: Padres -175
