The inherent nature of the MLB Draft cheapens one of my longtime arguments just a little bit because picking high is never going to be a guarantee, but I’ve always said that the worst place to be in a sport is in the middle. Either be really good or really bad. If you are somewhere in the middle in a sport like baseball, there is a chance that you run really well from a variance and luck standpoint and that fortuitous set of circumstances pushes you into a playoff berth or something.
That’s what it did for the Diamondbacks back in 2023 when they had a slightly better than average regular season at 84-78 and made it all the way to the World Series by getting hot at the right time. It was the longest playoff run for a team with a negative run differential in the regular season. But, that’s also the only postseason appearance for the D-Backs since 2017 and the only one in which they’ve won more than one game since 2011. Ironically, a season after going 84-78 with an NL Pennant, the Snakes went 89-73 in 2024 and missed the playoffs altogether.
It looks like another season in the middle for Arizona and one that doesn’t seem to have a wide range of outcomes one way or the other.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
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The Diamondbacks finished 80-82, but should’ve been 82-80 based on Pythagorean Win-Loss and it was the offensive side of the ballclub that stood out. Arizona was actually fifth in wOBA and eighth in wRC+, slashing .251/.325/.433 with 214 homers. In fact, they were one of six teams with 200+ HR and 100+ SB. The Snakes and the Mets were the only ones in that group to not make the playoffs. Still, it was enough of a downgrade from the 2024 offense to have an impact, as the group was second in wOBA at .337 and third in wRC+ at 115. That 2024 team was +16 in xSLG-SLG and +9 in xBA-BA, so regression was expected and it did hit to a degree.
Based on how things look on paper, the Diamondbacks are going to need a lot more from their pitching staff this season to withstand some offensive declines. Eugenio Suarez was second on the team in wOBA and .375 and he’s gone, along with Josh Naylor, who was sixth at .347. The team even tried to trade wOBA leader Ketel Marte after another excellent year with the stick batting .283/.376/.517. Nolan Arenado and Carlos Santana aren’t replacing that production. Even if Jordan Lawlar lives up to his prospect billing, it’ll only go so far. This offense should slide down the rankings.
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The margin for error playing in the NL West is so thin and the Diamondbacks fell victim to some really bad luck when they handed out a massive contract to Corbin Burnes and he had to undergo Tommy John surgery in June. He’ll likely be back around the All-Star Break, and the Diamondbacks have enough depth to survive his absence, but he’s the highest-ceiling guy in the rotation. The Merrill Kelly reunion is solid and he led the team in fWAR for a staff that finished 23rd in ERA and 23rd in FIP, but the reality is that Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez need to be better.
Speaking of unfortunate circumstances, Rodriguez was very reliable for the Red Sox and Tigers, but over 39 starts with the Diamondbacks, he has an ERA north of 5.00 with a 4.57 FIP and $40 million left on his contract. Pfaadt’s extension kicks in this season and he repaid Arizona’s confidence in him with a 5.25 ERA and a 4.22 FIP last season over 33 starts. Ryne Nelson turning into an above average starter was a godsend two years ago, but this simply looks like a mediocre rotation with a mediocre to below average bullpen. Add in the offensive decline and I’m pretty low on this team, despite some very good star players.
PROSPECT WATCH
We’ve been hearing about 2021 sixth overall pick Jordan Lawlar for a long time, but this season he’ll have to navigate a position change to the outfield along with adjusting better to MLB pitching. Those are big asks. But, the D-Backs need to find guys to put next to Corbin Carroll and the safer pick for this season might be Ryan Waldschmidt. The 31st overall pick in 2024 is a college bat coming off of 18 homers and 29 steals across two levels last season with a 142 wRC+ and some spectacular K% and BB% rates. The Diamondbacks are big on drafting and developing athletic players (hence Lawlar’s move to the OF) and unblocking guys like Waldschmidt and Tommy Troy will usher in the new position player core for this team.
2026 OUTLOOK
This feels like a transitional year for the Diamondbacks. They’ll remain competitive while they rebuild one piece at a time. The team’s bench is not good, so we could see youngsters move up the chain and possibly push established big leaguers into platoon players or bench depth. By season’s end, I think this is a stronger position player roster than what we see now. The pitching staff will be average at best and there aren’t the same kinds of high-upside prospects on the mound as there are around the diamond. Arizona used 65 different players and 42 pitches last season, both franchise records. Expect a lot of evaluation to take place this season, too.
BOLD TAKE: Jordan Lawlar gets traded for a young starting pitcher with similar contract control in a “change of scenery” deal
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
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Few lineups possess the dynamic trio atop the D-Backs lineup with SS Geraldo Perdomo, 2B Ketel Marte and RF Corbin Carroll. For an offense that finished top six in runs scored and OPS last year, those three will need to shoulder much of the load yet again for any hope of an outstanding campaign. Veteran 3B Nolan Arenado joins the fold after being acquired from the Cardinals and will team with C Gabriel Moreno, DH Pavin Smith and freshly signed 1B Carlos Santana in the middle of the order. Young talents LF Jordan Lawler and CF Alek Thomas round out the Arizona attack that’s got more top-heavy pop than what meets the eye. The challenge lies in turning this lineup over game in and game out. Consistent bottom of the lineup production will be at a premium and outside of Perdomo and Carroll, this team lacks a lot of speed one through nine. With Lourdes Gurriel Jr. recovering from ACL surgery, manager Torey Lovullo will utilize his platoon matchups based on that day’s opposing starting pitcher.
PITCHING
Not that long ago, the Arizona duo of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly helped lead these D-Backs to a World Series berth. It feels like forever ago, but both Gallen and Kelly signed back in Arizona and will anchor the rotation filled with some promising arms and some reclamation projects. Ryne Nelson is fresh off a stellar 2025 season and can slot in the No. 2 spot. Eduardo Rodriguez seeks a bounce-back season along with Brandon Pfaadt. Can Michael Soroka stay healthy long enough to be a meaningful addition to the rotation? Staff ace Corbin Burnes continues rehab from Tommy John surgery and a midseason return could be the boost this staff needs. The bullpen can use all the help it can get too, without their true two-headed monster of closing options in Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk, still recovering from their own TJ surgeries. Andrew Saalfrank will begin the season as stopper, but good luck finding a leverage arm to trust in late game spots. Last year’s group left a lot to be desired and plenty of wins on the table after blown leads. Ryan Thompson and Kevin Ginkel will get reinforcements in the setup positions with newly-added righties Taylor Clarke and Jonathan Loáisiga. They’ll need to help a group that posted bottom-five rankings in ERA, H/9 and K/9 in 2025.
PROSPECT WATCH
It looked like Jordan Lawler may find a spot on the 2026 Opening Day roster in the infield, but the emergence of Geraldo Perdomo and trade for Nolan Arenado will likely force him into the outfield. The position player crop has two other standouts in LF Ryan Waldschmidt and 2B Tommy Troy. Both can push for major league time this year if things break their way. Young arms in Yilber Díaz and Cristian Mena made their debuts last year, with Mena being an immediate depth option if rotation injuries happen early.
2026 OUTLOOK
Manager Torey Lovullo continues to get the very best from a group ravaged by injuries to key players over the last two seasons. He’ll need to continue the balancing act and hope for a little luck on that front as well. The organization decided not to trade Ketel Marte this offseason and that reinforces a belief they’ve got the chance to tread water early and get their big internal arms back off the injured list. If they hang around long enough, perhaps the wild card race remains viable deep into September.
BOLD TAKE: Corbin Carroll hits 35+ HR and steals 45+ bases, finishing Top 3 in NL MVP voting
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
