Mets vs. Brewers Prediction
The Mets and Brewers played each other during the final weekend of the regular season and will run it back with higher stakes this week in the NL Wild Card Round. Well, the stakes were high regardless for the Mets, who needed a win on Monday in a rescheduled doubleheader against the Braves to clinch a playoff berth. The Brewers clinched a while ago, as they ran away with the NL Central.
So, Milwaukee has been able to set everything up just the way they want it, while the Mets had to move some things around and play right up until the day before this series gets underway. The celebration for clinching a berth was short and subdued, as it was all about business and getting to Milwaukee for a good night’s sleep.
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This is actually just the second playoff appearance for the Mets since 2016 and they haven’t won a playoff series since 2015 when they lost to the Royals in the World Series. The Brewers have not won a playoff series since 2018, so a streak will end on either Wednesday or Thursday.
All games will be played in Milwaukee at American Family Field, as they are the only division winner in the NL Wild Card Round.
Let’s preview this series, the likely pitching matchups, and find some bets.
Mets vs. Brewers NL Wild Card Schedule
Game 1: Tuesday October 1, 5:30 p.m. ET (Severino vs. Peralta)
Game 2: Wednesday October 2, 7:30 p.m. ET (Manaea vs. Civale)
Game 3: Thursday October 3, 8:30 p.m. ET (Quintana vs. Montas) (if necessary)
(all pitching matchups are projected by me until otherwise announced)
How To Watch Mets vs. Brewers
Games 1 and 2 are on ESPN, Game 3 would be on ESPN2
Mets vs. Brewers Series Odds
New York Mets +115 // Milwaukee Brewers -135
Over/Under 2.5 Games: -105 // -115
Mets vs. Brewers NL Wild Card Preview
Normally being the No. 6 seed would be a disadvantage, but I don’t think it is here for the Mets. The prize for being the No. 5 seed is the Padres, who had an identical record to the Brewers, but sure do feel significantly more dangerous. That’s not to say that Milwaukee is a walk in the park by any means, as the Brewers have an excellent offense and a very strong bullpen.
A lot of Milwaukee’s offensive upside comes from drawing walks. Their 9.7% BB% was second to the Yankees. They also finished second with 217 stolen bases. Only the Nationals (223) had more and only the Reds (207) had more than 178. So, the Brewers really leveraged their speed and athleticism well on the basepaths and also remained patient in the batter’s box.
As a pitching staff, the Mets had the third-highest BB% against at 9.6%, so that will be a hugely important part of this series. The Mets bullpen did have a 27.8% K%, but also the third-highest BB% at 10.7%. There are a few holes in the lineup where the Brewers trade defense and speed for potent offense, so that will be something to follow. Also, Milwaukee lost Christian Yelich just after the All-Star Break and he was far and away the team’s best hitter with a 153 wRC+.
That said, 20-year-old rookie Jackson Chourio slashed .322/.354/.514 with a .371 wOBA and a 139 wRC+ in the second half after getting off to a rough start early in the season. This is a confident, versatile, very strong lineup, even if there aren’t household names.
The defensive part of the equation is hugely important. Outside of Game 1 starter Freddy Peralta, who had 200 strikeouts, the rest of the rotation pitches to a lot of contact. Peralta had a 3.68 ERA with a 3.88 xERA and a 4.16 FIP. Almost every starter had a lower ERA than FIP and xERA, a testament to Milwaukee’s defensive prowess. Aaron Civale had a 3.53 ERA with a 4.79 FIP in 14 starts and Tobias Myers had a 3.00 ERA with a 4.11 xERA and a 3.91 FIP in 138 innings.
All of them allowed a fair amount of home runs as well, which is what the Mets will be looking for in this series. While the Mets didn’t steal a ton of bags, they hit 207 homers as one of six teams to hit more than 200 dingers. Francisco Lindor hit 33 and would have been a very strong MVP candidate in a world without Shohei Ohtani. His 137 wRC+ led all Mets with at least 300 plate appearances, but Mark Vientos had a coming-out party with a 133 wRC+ and impending free agent Pete Alonso chipped in 34 bombs.
The x-factor in this series for the Mets just might be Francisco Alvarez. The Mets were 58-27 when he started a game this season and 65-35 when he appeared. He missed almost two months with an injury and the Mets really struggled in that span.
On the pitching side for New York, it hasn’t always been pretty, but it was in September, as they led the league in fWAR with 5.6 and collectively hung a 3.05 ERA with a 2.87 FIP. David Peterson won’t be able to start in this season, which is a bummer because he was the top dog in fWAR, but Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea will be among the listed starters and Luis Severino will likely get the ball in Game 1. He pitched great down the stretch.
Both bullpens performed at a top-five level in the final month of the season, but Milwaukee’s was decidedly stronger. I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched and we could get some close games, so the relievers may decide things. That’s especially true with Milwaukee’s patience at the plate.
All in all, I don’t know that the Brewers should be -135 for the series price, but I’m not rushing to back the Mets either. I also feel less strongly about the series total Over/Under in this one than I do in the two AL series.
A lean here towards the Mets, but nothing I’d strongly play before the series. This did go from -140 to -135 at DraftKings as I was finishing up.
Lean: Mets +115
