2025 Home Run Derby
The 2025 Home Run Derby takes place on Monday, July 14 at Truist Park in Atlanta. We have seven newcomers to the event since Ronald Acuna Jr. decided not to participate, as Matt Olson will take his place. Along with Olson, we’ll have Cal Raleigh, who goes into the All-Star Break with a league-leading total of 38 home runs, Oneil Cruz, James Wood, Brent Rooker, Byron Buxton, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Junior Caminero.
This is one of the youngest fields we’ve had, so hopefully these guys don’t get tired on what will be a warm and humid night in Atlanta, as most of them are at this time of the year. Let’s talk about the format and the rules first and then get into the contenders.
How to Watch the 2025 Home Run Derby
When: Monday, July 14, 8 p.m. ET
Where: Truist Park in Atlanta, GA
Network: ESPN/ESPN 2
2025 Home Run Derby Format
This year’s Home Run Derby will follow the same format as last year’s, which was a change from 2023. The first round is just about hitting as many home runs as possible to advance to the second round, where the remaining four players will be seeded No. 1-4, with a 4 vs. 1 matchup and a 3 vs. 2 matchup. The winners of those semifinal matchups advance to the finals. So, we don’t have a full bracket-style tournament like we had from 2015-23.
In the first round, hitters get three minutes or 40 pitches, whichever comes first. Players also get a bonus period that lasts until three outs are recorded (any swing that is not a home run is an out). Hitters get a fourth out during the bonus period if they hit a HR of at least 425 feet.
In the semifinals and the finals, the hitters get two minutes or 27 pitches.
2025 Home Run Derby Odds and Participants
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11 a.m. PT on July 13
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) +255
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) +320
- James Wood (WAS) +400
- Matt Olson (ATL) +650
- Brent Rooker (ATH) +700
- Byron Buxton (MIN) +850
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) +1000
- Junior Caminero (TB) +1000
Cal Raleigh (+255)
Raleigh, who has gotten attention for his extreme power and illustrious nickname “Big Dumper”, hit 27 homers in 2022, 30 in 2023, and 34 in 2024 before this season’s sensational performance. He’s slugging .638, which is a remarkable number for any hitter, let alone a catcher. Also, T-Mobile Park is not an easy venue for hitting dingers and Raleigh has hit 17 there to go with 21 on the road, although he does have about 40 more plate appearances on the road.
There are a few stats I like to look at for hitters and I’ll list those numbers for each participant. They are Barrel%, Pull%, FB%, HR/FB%, and Bat Speed. A “barrel” is a batted ball with the right combination of launch angle and exit velocity to have at least an expected batting average of .500 and an expected slugging percentage of 1.500. Out of 3,216 home runs entering play on Sunday, 2,816 were classified as Barrels. Furthermore, 2,167 of those home runs were pulled, so that’s another important stat for me since it would mean hitting the ball to the shallower parts of the ballpark. HR/FB% is the rate of fly balls that are home runs. Bat speed will help generate exit velocity.
Barrel%: 20.2% (5th among hitters with at least 250 PA)
Pull%: 56.4% (1st)
FB%: 57.6% (1st)
HR/FB%: 27.1% (6th)
Bat Speed: 75.1 mph (90th percentile)
Raleigh is the rightful favorite in this field. I like to look at guys that naturally elevate the baseball with a high Pull% because they don’t have to really change anything to get the right swing plane for this type of event. I’m just not sure +295 is good enough for the gamble, especially because Raleigh has the body type most likely to tire out in this event. For whatever it’s worth, Raleigh is the only hitter with single-digit odds to have fewer xHR at Truist Park (32) than his actual total.
Also, Raleigh’s dad, Todd, is pitching to him. He probably threw a little BP when he was the head coach at Tennessee and Western Carolina, but this is a big stage and he hasn’t done it in a while.
Oneil Cruz (+320)
Cruz has a violent swing and makes extremely loud contact. The problem for him is that he doesn’t make enough of it, as his 32.3% K% is the second-highest in the league. But, you don’t have to worry about striking out in this type of tournament. Cruz has only hit 16 homers thus far, the fewest of any hitter in the field.
Barrel%: 22.3% (2nd)
Pull%: 42.0% (89th out of 203 hitters with at least 250 PA)
FB%: 38.9% (105th)
HR/FB%: 21.3% (18th)
Bat Speed: 78.6 mph (100th percentile)
At 6-foot-7, Cruz has a very long swing and it can be tough for him to get his arms extended and drive the baseball in the air, as evidenced by his low FB%. That said, he ranks in the 100th percentile in exit velocity and Barrel% and 99th in Hard Hit%, which is a batted ball with an exit velo of at least 95 mph. I’m very worried about the children in the outfield with Cruz at the plate.
With the 40-pitch max in Round 1 and then 27 pitches in Round 2, I’m a bit concerned about Cruz’s low FB%. He’s likely to hit some truly majestic home runs, and probably the longest one of the night, but I don’t know that he’ll be a volume guy.
Cruz will use assistant coach Stephen Morales, who throws batting practice regularly.
James Wood (+400)
It’s been a very rough year for the Nationals, but Wood has been a bright spot. He’s hit 24 home runs thus far and has been one of the league’s most productive bats. After hitting just nine homers in 336 PA last season, he’s found his power stroke at the big-league level and looks like a force for a long time at just 22 years old. What makes Wood’s power production even more impressive is that nearly 42% of his plate appearances have ended in a strikeout (27.6%) or walk (14%), so he’s hitting in a lot of deep counts and has less than 60% of his plate appearances to go yard.
Barrel%: 18.5% (8th)
Pull%: 29.2% (199th)
FB%: 30.5% (187th)
HR/FB%: 32.4% (1st)
Bat Speed: 76.1 mph (96th percentile)
Wood’s home run spray chart is a thing of beauty.
He has prolific power to all parts of the park and, as you can see, the left-handed slugger has only really pulled five of his home runs to the shortest parts of the park. He’s hit a lot of homers to CF and LF, probably a byproduct of being 6-foot-7 and having such a long swing with long arms that can prevent him from getting out in front of pitches. But, that’s still some thoroughly impressive power.
While I don’t love the fly ball rate or the low Pull%, former MLB infielder Ricky Gutierrez is Wood’s pitcher and he throws him batting practice during the season. Still, the Pull Air% under 10% (league average is 16.6%) and low Air% in general at 47.4% (league average is 55.7%) keep me from buying in.
Matt Olson (+650)
Olson, who hit 54 home runs back in 2023, has 17 to his name this season. He’s having a fine offensive year for the Braves and is the hometown kid in this year’s Derby. Olson did fall short of 30 homers last season for the first time since 2018, excluding the COVID-shortened campaign of 2020. Interestingly, Olson’s Barrel% this season is higher than it was in ‘23 (16.4%) when he had those 54 dingers.
Barrel%: 16.5% (13th)
Pull%: 38.8% (132nd)
FB%: 40.8% (73rd)
HR/FB%: 16.0% (50th)
Bat Speed: 73.7 mph (75th percentile)
Historically, Olson has carried a well above average Pull Air% at 21.9% for his career, but he’s down to 14.6% for some reason this season. He has lost some bat speed over the last two seasons, as he was at 74.9 mph during that 54-homer season. From a rolling 3-year Statcast Park Factor, Truist Park has a value of 106 for lefties and 99 for righties, so Cruz, Wood, Chisholm, and Olson could all be helped.
Because Olson has such good Pull Air% in his past and the little downtick in bat speed is not quite as relevant here with batting practice pitches, he’s a contender. I’m not taking him, but I think there’s absolutely a case to be made.
Braves coach Eddie Perez will pitch to Olson.
Brent Rooker (+700)
I’ll put the cart before the horse here and say that Rooker is my favorite pick in this year’s field. The park factor handedness is a bit of a concern since Rooker is a righty, but he is also predominantly a DH, so he’s used to sitting around for a while before getting involved in the game again.
Rooker has hit 20 homers, but hit eight in the first month of the season and then tailed off a bit. He’s had back-to-back 30-homer seasons and is on track for another one. Interestingly, even with how much of a hitter’s haven Sacramento has been, Rooker has hit 12 of his 20 homers on the road in about 15 fewer plate appearances.
Barrel: 14.3% (28th)
Pull%: 44.4% (56th)
FB%: 39.5% (96th)
HR/FB%: 17.7% (35th)
Bat Speed: 73.8 mph (78th percentile)
Even though Rooker doesn’t have the most impressive set of metrics out of the participants, the DH thing is a really big factor to me. There can be long breaks in between hitting for these guys and you’ll often see them staying loose in the cage. Well, usually, they’re out playing the field between plate appearances. For Rooker, this fits right into his routine.
Rooker’s longtime personal hitting coach, Joe Caruso, will be his pitcher and he’s thrown him a ton of BP. I think there’s really good value here at +700. Also, note Rooker’s home run spray chart. They’re all to the pull side of second base.
Byron Buxton (+850)
Buxton was hit on the hand by a pitch last week and I wasn’t sure that he would still be good to go here, but he is and he’ll be out there with 21 homers to his name thus far. Buxton really isn’t viewed as a power guy in the same light as everybody else in the field, but he did hit 28 home runs in just 382 plate appearances back in 2022. He’s only had more than 400 PA in a season once, so injuries have prevented him from putting up bigger numbers.
Barrel%: 15.6% (19th)
Pull: 53.1% (6th)
FB%: 45.0% (36th)
HR/FB%: 22.1% (13th)
Bat Speed: 75.0 mph (90th percentile)
Honestly, I was shocked to see Buxton’s metrics here. I know he’s a good hitter in general, but this is a pretty good set of numbers to make him a dark horse contender. He also got off to a slow start during the first month of the season, which isn’t surprising because of the cold weather in Minneapolis and the Midwest.
Like Rooker, Buxton’s home runs are almost exclusively to the pull side, with just one hit to the right of second base. I like that type of distribution in this type of event, so long as the pitcher is consistent. And that should happen for Buxton, as third-base coach Tommy Watkins, who has thrown BP to Buxton nearly his entire professional career, will be his pitcher. At +850, I think he’s a good value pick.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+1000)
Chisholm has hit 17 homers in just 268 plate appearances this season, as he missed the entire month of May and a few days on either side of that. Not surprisingly, he’s hit 13 of those 17 at Yankee Stadium, where the short porch benefits every left-handed hitter. Chisholm is actually only batting .172 on the road with a .343 SLG compared to .313 at home with a .649 SLG.
Barrel%: 18.6% (7th)
Pull%: 43.5% (69th)
FB%: 53.2% (4th)
HR/FB%: 20.2% (13th)
Bat Speed: 73.3 mph (70th percentile)
Chisholm actually has 20 xHR at Truist Park, so his homers at home aren’t all about the friendly confines. Even though there are some pretty nice metrics here, though, he’s not on the list for me. His stepfather will be pitching to him, and while he’s pitched to him a lot throughout his life and even in a HR competition in the Bahamas, I definitely prefer when the pitcher is a team representative who throws BP more often.
Junior Caminero (+1000)
Caminero, who was recently viewed as the best prospect in the minors by some analysts, has hit 23 homers on the season. He just turned 22 earlier this month and is playing his first full season in the bigs. He has showcased some impressive power at every level and is expected to be a great hitter and a franchise cornerstone as he matures. He’s probably the least recognizable name in this year’s field, which probably explains the longest odds on the board, even though he’s always been viewed as having 80-grade raw power, which is the highest you can go on the 20-80 scouting scale.
Barrel%: 11.0% (73rd)
Pull%: 46.1% (35th)
FB%: 36.5% (131st)
HR/FB%: 22.3% (12th)
Bat Speed: 78.0 mph (100th percentile)
Caminero has spread his home runs out this season, hitting them to all parts of the park. I do worry about the low fly ball rate, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won the 2023 Home Run Derby and he ranked in the bottom 50 of qualified batters in FB%. So, it can happen, and Guerrero won that at T-Mobile Park, generally a tough place to hit. Maybe I overvalue fly ball rate in this because these are world-class athletes that can adjust when they need to. But, it is still a concern with Caminero.
Randy Arozarena finished as the runner-up in that 2023 Derby, but did hit 35 home runs in the semifinals before falling two short to Guerrero. Arozarena’s pitcher, Tomas Francisco, will also pitch to Caminero.
2025 Home Run Derby Picks
Obviously any of these eight guys can win it and this is something of a crapshoot, so have some fun with this and enjoy the entertainment value. For me, I like Rooker (+700) and Buxton (+850) as the guys with the most value on the board in terms of price and potential.
