Arizona Diamondbacks 2024 preview
I spent a lot of time with a blinking cursor at the start of the Arizona Diamondbacks preview wondering if they were the most improbable World Series participant ever. It is impossible to ignore that they were 125/1 to win the World Series coming into the season, but they also snuck into the playoffs thanks to a very weak Wild Card group in the National League.
The D-Backs were 32-39 in the second half. They finished the season with a -15 run differential. The only other team to make the World Series with a negative run differential is the 1987 Minnesota Twins. In total, only 11 teams in the history of baseball have made the playoffs with a negative run differential, but it may happen more frequently now with six teams from each league qualifying for the postseason tournament.
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The Marlins were one this past season, as they were actually -57 in run differential. They were bounced right away in the NL Wild Card Round. The Diamondbacks were not. In fact, they beat the Brewers 2-0 and went on to sweep the Dodgers in the NLDS before beating the Phillies in seven games in the NLCS.
This isn’t a slight towards the Diamondbacks, but they were an average or worse team by just about any metric other than stolen bases. They weren’t higher than 14th in any of the main pitching or hitting categories. They were an elite defensive team and simply got hot at the right time.
They’ll look to run it back with a lot of the same personnel, but a few key additions could make this a much better regular season group this year.
2024 Arizona Diamondbacks Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Mar. 16)
World Series: +3500
NL Pennant: +1700
NL West: +850
Win Total: 83.5 (-120/+100)
Make Playoffs: Yes +110 / No -130
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview: Offense
By the park-adjusted metric wRC+, the Diamondbacks had a below average offense. They posted a 97 wRC+, which means that they were 3% below league average. They created a lot of surplus value as a position player group with 166 stolen bases and some impressive defensive numbers. As an offense, though, they only hit 166 home runs to rank tied for 22nd.
What the Diamondbacks lacked in power, they made up for with making contact. They had the fourth-lowest K% in the league at 20.4% and also ranked in the middle of the pack in walks. You typically don’t see that with low-strikeout teams. They tend to sell out to make contact, which means not hitting in deep counts. Arizona’s offense was just very selective and didn’t chase a lot of bad pitches. They also led the league in triples, which is a byproduct of Chase Field’s dimensions, but also team speed.
With a lot of excellent contact hitters in the lineup, the Diamondbacks have decided to chase power at the expense of strikeouts. Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson are two guys that could achieve that quest. Suarez has hit 246 homers in his MLB career. He’s also struck out over 27% of the time and over 30% of the time in the last two seasons. You take the good with the bad here, though, as he also owns a 10.1% BB% over his career, including an 11.6% BB% two years ago. He’s hit over 30 homers four times.
Pederson doesn’t strike out as much and also hasn’t generated as much power, but his last two seasons have been spent as a platoon guy with the Giants, where the ball simply doesn’t carry much. He hit 14 of his 15 homers against right-handed pitching last season and posted a 115 wRC+. Among last season’s issues for Arizona, they were 56-57 against right-handed starters, but 28-21 against left-handed ones.
So, you’ve got a bit more of a power element here to pair with last season’s holdovers, including NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll, who hit 25 homers and stole 55 bags, plus Ketel Marte, who banged out 25 homers of his own. Christian Walker posted a 120 wRC+ with 33 dingers and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. had a 106 wRC+ with 24 long balls.
Gabriel Moreno hit .284 and posted a 103 wRC+, as he didn’t hit for much power, but he was terrific behind the plate and should grow into his offensive profile. I don’t know if Alek Thomas or Geraldo Perdomo will hit, but both are excellent defensive players. Perdomo actually posted a .353 OBP because he walked 12.9% of the time.
All in all, I like this position player group a lot. The additions add a little more thump to a contact-oriented offense that can steal bases and I’d expect some gains in the BB% department as well. Top prospect Jordan Lawlar actually played 14 games at the MLB level in his age-20 season and he’s another guy with power and speed.
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview: Pitching
Is Eduardo Rodriguez the missing piece? While the Diamondbacks made some additions on offense, they felt mostly content with what they had on the pitching side. It helps to have one of the game’s all-time great pitching coaches in Brent Strom, who was instrumental in getting Brandon Pfaadt right as the season went along and also had his input in the developments of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly over the last couple of seasons.
Rodriguez had a tumultuous tenure with the Tigers. Personal issues and health concerns limited him to 43 starts and 243.2 innings over two seasons. He was not very effective in 2021, which amounted to a throwaway season. He was definitely better in 2023 with a 3.30 ERA and a 3.66 FIP. He’s long been a guy I’ve liked a lot dating back to his Red Sox days. He’s always done well from a contact management standpoint and had good peripherals. Health has been the main issue.
He’ll turn 31 during the second week of the season, so he’s not on the wrong side of his prime by MLB standards. I think Strom can do a lot of things with him and I’d expect to see a bump in his K% numbers, much like we’ve seen from another guy with a deep arsenal in Kelly. The 35-year-old Kelly posted a career-best 25.9% K% last season and maintained the adjustments he made from 2021 to 2022.
The guy I’m most concerned with is Gallen. I know he had a 3.47 ERA with a 3.26 FIP and 5.2 fWAR. He’s been worth 9.4 fWAR over the last two seasons with strong peripherals, but, man, he allowed a lot of hard contact last year and I’m curious to see how the Diamondbacks deal with it. His BABIP skyrocketed from .237 to .301 and his Hard Hit% ballooned from 36.1% to 46%. He’s very fortunate that the Diamondbacks had an elite defense and also that he ran a 30.4% K% with men in scoring position.
Gallen made the pitches when he needed to, but he did allow 19 homers over his final 21 starts. He allowed a .430 SLG in the second half. I could be nitpicking a little here, but his command was not awesome last season and I wonder if some of the negative regression signs do creep in.
Because the truth is that Pfaadt was a playoff hero, but he had a 5.72 ERA with a 5.18 FIP in 96 regular season innings. Maybe Strom tinkered enough to figure out how to maximize his effectiveness, but he gave up 22 homers in those 96 innings and a whole bunch of loud contact.
Depth-wise, I find the Diamondbacks to be lacking. They desperately need the Big Three of Gallen, Kelly, and E-Rod to stay intact as the season goes along. Their exceptional defense can help out guys like Tommy Henry, Ryne Nelson, Slade Cecconi, and others, but only to a degree. Even with that elite defense last season, this is a team that was 20th in ERA.
The bullpen was also 18th in ERA and 21st in FIP. I would think a full season of Paul Sewald helps, but this is a group left to its own devices with no additions in the offseason. I get very concerned about bullpens that had all those high-stress innings in October, as injury attrition is inevitable and bullpens are inherently volatile.
Arizona Diamondbacks Player to Watch
C Gabriel Moreno
If you don’t know who Moreno is, it’s time that you do. The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks swapped from positions of strength, as Toronto decided on Moreno out of Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen to be traded for Dalton Varsho. Moreno only had 380 plate appearances last season, but slashed .284/.339/.408. His suboptimal launch angle will always hurt him in the power department, but he had an elite chase rate last season. I could see him maybe walking a bit more as he progresses as a player.
But, it’s the defense that is special. Moreno threw out 22 of 57 would-be base stealers (38.6%). League average was 20% with the bigger bases and the pitch clock. He graded about average as a pitch framer, but his arm is a weapon behind the plate and I think the bat could take a leap this season, making him one of the low-key more valuable players in baseball.
Arizona Diamondbacks Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
I do really like this position player group. I am very worried about the World Series hangover for the pitchers, though. Gallen wound up with over 240 innings last season. Kelly has had back-to-back 200-inning seasons and he’s in his mid-30s. Pfaadt got close to 170 innings and there were some pressure-packed ones in there. And, as I mentioned, the workload on the bullpen is excessive with an October run.
But, the Diamondbacks added some thump and they continue to be an excellent defensive ballclub, which I can’t seem to mention enough. I think they’re a well-run organization and they got off to a really good start last season before hanging on for dear life in the second half prior to the big postseason run. Carroll is a bona fide star and his supporting cast should be improved.
It’s a matter of Arizona’s depth that I have to sit on this one a little longer and think it over. I think this is definitely a better group than last season, especially if Rodriguez can stay healthy and feel more comfortable. I just need some more time to mull it over.
Author edit: The D-Backs signed Jordan Montgomery to a one-year deal on Mar. 26. At the time of this update, their season win total line was still 83.5 at DK.
Strong Lean: Over 83.5
Get all of our preseason coverage in the 2024 MLB Betting Guide.
