Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays:
The Baltimore Orioles are ln a tight race with the New York Yankees for the American League East division crown and have to play a Toronto Blue Jays team looking to play spoiler north of the border on Thursday.
Kevin Gausman gets the start on Thursday. He is not having a season up to his normal standards with a 4.56 ERA and has allowed at least three runs in each of his past three starts, but he is due for positive regression.
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Gausman’s fielding independent is 4.05 with 8.6 strikeouts to 2.6 walks per nine innings, and he is tasked with holding down an Orioles offense that is third in the league in scoring with 5.1 runs per game and has the MLB lead in home runs per game.
While the Blue Jays offense does not compare, ranking 23rd in runs per game and 27th in home runs per game, they have an opportunity to do damage against the backend of the rotation starter Dean Kremer.
The Orioles have lost each of Kremer’s last three starts. He has allowed at least three runs in six of his past eight starts and has a 4.39 ERA overall, though he should feel fortunate his ERA isn’t even higher.
Kremer has allowed 1.6 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings this season and is posting a 4.81 fielding independent.
The bullpen behind Kremer has also had a bunch of issues recently, ranking 29th in ERA since June 15, entering Wednesday with a 5.24 ERA, while the Blue Jays are 27th in bullpen ERA in this span with a 5.29 ERA.
With the Blue Jays having won each of Gausman’s past four starts and Kremer’s overall performance giving Toronto a chance to make a statement at the plate, Toronto will take advantage and win on Thursday.
MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +105
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