Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for May 21. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
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Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Spencer Strider Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122) vs. Marlins
Braves at Marlins – 6:40 pm ET
The Marlins have a strikeout rate of 21.6% this season. That’s not necessarily good or bad. However, you’d have to have a lower mark than that to scare me off Strider strikeout props right now. It’s just hard not to feel like he’s outperforming expectations since returning from injury, and his perhaps his totals should be a bit higher. Strider only had four strikeouts in his most recent start, struggling a bit to find his best stuff against the Red Sox. But the righty averaged 7.0 strikeouts per game in his first two starts of the season, and I genuinely like him to find his groove in pitcher-friendly conditions tonight.
Ben Rice Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120) vs. Blue Jays
Blue Jays at Yankees – 7:05 pm ET
Tonight feels like a good opportunity to go back to Rice’s hitter props. This season, in home games against right-handed starters, Rice is averaging 2.9 combined hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) per game. Of course, calling Braydon Fisher a starter isn’t right, as he’s a reliever serving as an opener for Toronto. However, righty Spencer Miles is expected to come in and pitch a bulk of the innings for the Blue Jays. That said, if everything goes to plan, our lefty slugger will be facing primarily righties for five or six innings. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rice goes yard at some point, but I’ll settle for any combination that gets us Over this mark.
Luis Severino Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-131 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+170 – 0.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 8+ (+317 – 0.25 units) vs. Angels
Athletics at Angels – 9:38 pm ET
Severino is only averaging 5.4 strikeouts per game this season, but he has had five outings in which he has racked up seven strikeouts. Tonight, all we need from the righty is six to cash our bigger play, even if this is a ladder situation for me. Severino is a bit shakier than I’d like, but he does have strong swing-and-miss stuff. That’s really all I’m looking for in a matchup with the Angels, who have the highest strikeout rate in baseball (25.6%). Last year, in a September start against Los Angeles, Severino had seven strikeouts in 5.0 innings of work. That feels pretty replicable this evening.
Additional Best Bets
Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105) vs. Guardians
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Jahmai Jones Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125) vs. Guardians
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.90 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -565 — a +29.4% edge to the Over.
Davis Schneider Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-122) vs. Yankees
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.49 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -344 — a +22.5% edge to the Over.
Spencer Strider Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130) vs. Marlins
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 7.51 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -316 — a +19.4% edge to the Over.
