Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for May 28. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Payton Tolle Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105) vs. Braves
Braves at Red Sox – 4:10 pm ET
Tolle is coming off a strong outing against the Twins, especially when it comes to swings and misses. The lefty struck out nine batters in 6.0 innings, and that was against an opponent that has been tough to strike out this year. Well, that bodes well heading into this outing. The Braves only have a K rate of 20.5% against southpaws this season, but Tolle has proven that he can miss bats against disciplined lineups. With that in mind, I’m simply relying on his stuff here. At +105 odds, six strikeouts isn’t a tough ask. Let’s go with it.
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+113) vs. Cubs
Cubs at Pirates – 6:40 pm ET
This is another matchup in which I’m really ignoring the K rate for the opponent. Chicago only has a strikeout rate of 20.6% against righties this season, and this lineup is good about walking and making contact. But Skenes just saw a streak of five straight games with at least seven strikeouts get snapped. When he’s on his game, he’s going to rack up strikeouts. Well, I’m putting trust in him to do it tonight. Skenes is averaging 7.2 strikeouts per game in home starts this year.
Spencer Arrighetti Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-112) vs. Rangers
Astros at Rangers – 8:05 pm ET
Arrighetti is averaging 17.6 outs recorded per game this year. And while the talented righty has struggled on the road, this is a very good matchup for him. Texas has a very weak wRC+ (96) on the season. This team has been banged up and unproductive on offense for most of the year, even with the team having scored 10 runs two days ago. That said, I like Arrighetti to work deep into this game.
Additional Picks
Wade Meckler Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+128) vs. Tigers
Davis Martin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-108) vs. Twins
Patrick Corbin Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-155 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 5+ (+140 – 0.5 units) vs. Orioles
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-154) vs. Tigers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.65 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -422 — a +20.2% edge to the Over.
Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-153) vs. Rangers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.63 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -411 — a +20.0% edge to the Over.
Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-131) vs. Braves
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him projected for 1.41 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -309 — a +18.9% edge to the Over.
