Betting on the #1 Pick in the 2025 MLB Draft:
For those who have joined the momentum of college baseball by betting on the College World Series, the championship series isn’t the end of the action. There is one more related futures board available, and I recommend you get involved right away. That is the MLB Draft (July 13th, with most major books posting odds for who will be the first pick.
While college baseball has sparked the interest of many in the media and betting space, the play to make now is someone who likely won’t ever be in action at that level.
Top MLB Resources:
Take high school sensation Ethan Holliday (-110) to be the first pick in the MLB draft. A number of national books are offering this market with DraftKings’ -110 as the best price. This wager is a timely one since so much interest is on the Coastal Carolina – LSU matchup along with all the regular MLB plays.
The public, looking more at the NBA draft, has yet to venture deep down the MLB futures board to find this tab. There are a number of reasons to believe that when Rob Manfred heads to the podium, he says “with the first pick in the Major League Baseball draft, the Washington Nationals select Ethan Holliday, Stillwater High School.”
Hype
For the past two seasons, experts like Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo have highlighted this Oklahoma high schooler as the anointed first pick of the 2025 draft.
The son of former Big Leaguer Matt Holliday and the brother of the 2022 first overall pick, Jackson Holliday, Ethan has played the role of No.1 pick in-waiting for a long time.
Unlike the Roy family, the Hollidays understand succession.
From a handicapping perspective, Ethan’s label has significance since front office executives are not often willing to go against a media narrative well-known to their fan base. The Washington fans have heard Holliday was the best prospect since the team got the first pick. Any other selection made would come with pushback – pushback a team currently struggling with fan support wants to avoid.
Holliday can be sold as the sport’s next young superstar, an organizational centerpiece for over a decade.
A familiar pitch from back in 2010 when it was the same Nationals in a position to draft Bryce Harper with the first pick. That Harper template is even more rationale for Holliday going to the Nats.
As a bettor, ask yourself, how can the Nationals not take the next new face of MLB stardom?
As for Callis and Mayo, both recently named Holliday the first pick in their mock drafts.
Here is what they wrote for MLB.com on June 20th: “He’s been No. 1 on our Draft list for some time now and still has the best chance at going No. 1 overall to the Nationals.”
Talent
Holliday has rated highly in all the metrics while starring at his Oklahoma high school and being the darling of the showcase circuit since he was in middle school.
Back to the important marketing element of this equation, the Nationals, always the little brother to the nearby Orioles, can literally take the little brother of whom Baltimore already took first overall.
In the case of Ethan, this little brother is already four inches taller and much more powerful than big bro Jackson.
Competition
This year’s draft features a handful of players who grade out as first overall pick options.
Namely, a trio of left-handed stud pitchers – Kade Anderson from LSU (+230), Liam Doyle from Tennessee (+1200) and Florida State’s Jamie Arnold (+1200).
All great options that project relatively soon to be No.1 starters in the MLB.
They just don’t bring the same juice for a struggling franchise pitching once a week like Holliday could do moments after being selected first in the draft.
As a high schooler, Holliday gives Washington some more rebuilding time rather than having a starting pitcher quickly moved up to play with a last-place level squad.
The other high school players that could potentially be the No.1 pick, both teammates at Corona HS, pitcher Seth Hernandez (+900) and infielder Billy Carlson (+6500), lack the stardom Holliday brings, and just as important, what Washington desperately wants.
Numbers
Most of the respected media sources have Holliday as the first pick, but the -110 offered by DraftKings is not priced accordingly. It should be higher, like the -160 listed by FanDuel or the -150 from BetMGM.
