Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Friday’s MLB slate…
2:20 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs (-165, 8.5)
The Guardians (39-41) just took two of three at the Royals but lost Thursday’s series finale 4-3 as -150 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Cubs (37-42) just got swept by the Phillies, losing 3-1 yesterday as -105 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, Cleveland hands the ball to righty Cal Quantrill (2-4, 5.61 ERA) and Chicago counters with lefty Justin Steele (8-2, 2.62 ERA). This line opened with the Cubs listed as a -145 home favorite and the Guardians a +130 road dog. The public is roughly split down the middle, yet we’ve seen Chicago get steamed up from -145 to -165. This signals smart money laying the chalk with the Cubs at home. Chicago is receiving 54% of bets but 68% of money, further evidence of pro money in their favor. Non-division home favorites receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 166-101 (62%) this season. The Cubs also have value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the favorite. Chicago is 22-14 as a favorite. Cleveland is 13-17 as a dog. Sharps are also leaning under, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115 at several shops. The under is receiving 56% of bets and 76% of money, a sharp bet split. The Guardians are 46-32 (59%) to the under, the second best under team in MLB after the Padres. Steele is 2-0 in June with a 2.45 ERA. Quantrill is returning from the injured list to make his first start in a month.
7:05 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles (-115, 8.5)
The Twins (40-42) just got swept at the Braves, losing Wednesday’s series finale 3-0 as +140 road dogs. Similarly, the Orioles (48-31) just dropped two of three at home against the Reds, losing 11-7 on Wednesday as -165 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, Minnesota goes with righty Pablo Lopez (3-5, 4.41 ERA) and Baltimore turns to fellow righty Dean Kremer (8-3, 4.50 ERA). This line opened at a pick’em with both sides listed at roughly -105 odds. Sharps have jumped on the Orioles at a short home price, steaming Baltimore up from -105 to -115. The Orioles are receiving 71% of bets and 76% of money, signaling both Pro and Joe support in their favor. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 72-43 (63%) this season. Baltimore is 19-10 (66%) off a loss. AL East favorites playing teams outside the division are 134-62 (68%). The Orioles are 28-9 as a favorite and 25-16 at home. The Twins are 9-21 as a dog and 17-23 on the road. Baltimore has a big edge at the plate, hitting .253 vs .231 for Minnesota. Pros are also leaning over, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115. The over is receiving 81% of bets and 87% of money. Baltimore is 6-2 to the over in their last eight games. The forecast calls for mid 80s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing out to left center.
