Today a new week begins with a loaded MLB slate of 14 games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of MLB games tonight.
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6:50 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (-120, 8.5)
The Rangers (2-1) just took two of three against the Cubs but lost Sunday’s series finale 9-5. Meanwhile, the Rays (2-2) just split a four-game series against the Blue Jays, dropping Sunday’s series finale 9-2. For tonight’s series opener, the Rangers hand the ball to righty Dane Dunning (12-7, 3.70 ERA in 2023) while the Rays counter with fellow righty Ryan Pepiot (2-1, 2.14 ERA in 2023). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a short -115 home favorite and Texas a -105 road dog. Sharps have sided with the Rays laying short chalk at home, raising Tampa Bay up from -115 to -120. The Rays are receiving roughly 60% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling a combination of both Pro and Joe action in their favor. Pros also seem to be leaning under, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115 or -120 at some shops, hinting at a possible game day drop down to 8. The juice liability is notable because 75% of bets are taking the over, yet the books are making you payer a higher price on the under, indicating sharp under action.
7:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at New York Mets (-135, 7.5)
The Tigers (3-0) just swept the White Sox in their opening series, winning Sunday’s finale 3-2. On the other end of the spectrum, the Mets (0-3) just got swept at home by the Brewers, losing 4-1 on Sunday. In tonight’s Interleague Series opener, the Tigers go with righty Reese Olson (5-7, 3.99 ERA in 2023) and the Mets rebuttal with lefty Sean Manaea (7-6, 4.44 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -125 home favorite and the Tigers a +115 road dog. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why are the winless Mets favored over the undefeated Tigers? Even factoring in home field advantage, shouldn’t it be the other way around? Pros have embraced this fishy line, buying low on the Mets and steaming them up from -125 to -135. The Mets are receiving 60% of moneyline bets and 65% of moneyline dollars, a sneaky “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor. New York has value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team. Sharps hammered this under as soon as it opened, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. The under is only receiving 38% of bets but a whopping 76% of dollars, a massive sharp contrarian bet split.
9:40 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-145, 8) at Oakland Athletics
The Red Sox (2-2) just split their opening series with the Mariners, winning Sunday’s finale 5-1. Meanwhile, the Athletics (1-3) just dropped three out of four against the Guardians but avoided the sweep with a 4-3 win on Sunday. In tonight’s series opener, the Red Sox hand the ball to Tanner Houck (6-10, 5.01 ERA in 2023) while the Athletics go with fellow righty Joe Boyle (2-0, 1.69 ERA in 2023). This line opened with Boston listed as a -135 road favorite and Oakland a +115 home dog. Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit low and have gotten down hard on Boston, steaming the Red Sox up from -135 to -145. Boston is receiving 91% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavily lopsided support from both the public and wiseguys. Non-division road favorites off a win, like Boston here, are 516-341 (60%) since 2021. The Red Sox have value as a favorite in a low total game (8). Boston has the better batting average (.229 vs .216) and far superior team ERA (2.04 vs 6.00).
