Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday July 22

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Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded slate of 15 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our recently revamped VSiN Bet Splits

 

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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Saturday’s MLB slate…

 

7:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (-185, 8.5) at Washington Nationals

The Nationals (29-58) took Friday night’s series opener 5-3, cashing as +145 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Giants (54-44) hand the ball to righty Logan Webb (8-7, 3.11 ERA) and the Nationals counter with fellow righty Josiah Gray (6-8, 3.59 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -175 road favorite and Washington a +160 home dog. Sharps like the Giants in a bounce back spot, steaming San Francisco up from -175 to -185. The Giants are receiving 79% of bets and 82% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Non-division road favorites facing teams who missed the postseason the previous year are 194-125 (61%) this season with a 3% ROI. The Giants are 28-22 on the road. The Nats are just 16-32 at home. Webb has a 1.59 ERA in three July starts. Gray has a 6.30 ERA in three July starts. Pros are also leaning over, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 9. The Giants have a big edge in the bullpen, boasting a +15 rating vs -25 for the Nats. 

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-120, 8) at Cleveland Guardians 

The Guardians (48-49) won last night’s Interleague series opener 6-5, cashing as +105 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Phillies (52-45) start righty Zack Wheeler (7-4, 4.04 ERA) and the Guardians go with fellow righty Tanner Bibee (5-2, 3.32 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -115 road favorite and Cleveland a -105 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Phillies laying a short chalk price, driving Philadelphia up from -115 to -120. The Phillies are receiving 66% of bets but 78% of money, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. Sweet spot short road favorites -120 to -150 are 148-83 (64%) with a 12% ROI this season. Interleague road favorites are 90-54 (63%) with a 6% ROI. The Phillies are 7-0 in Wheeler’s last seven starts. Pros are also leaning under, as some shops have fallen from 8.5 to 8. The under is receiving 28% of bets but 68% of money, a massive sharp contrarian bet split.