Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Sunday May 7

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Today the weekend wraps up with 15 MLB games. You can track all of the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

 

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In the meantime, let’s examine a pair of matchups receiving sharp action today…

 

2:10 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (-115, 9.5) at Kansas City Royals

The Athletics (8-26) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 12-8 as +125 road dogs and then winning again on Saturday 5-4 as +155 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, Oakland hands the ball to righty Mason Miller (0-1, 3.52 ERA) while the Royals (8-26) counter with lefty Ryan Yarbrough (0-4, 7.40 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed at -105. Some shops opened the Royals as a short -120 home favorite. Regardless of the opener, we’ve seen pros get down on the Athletics to complete the sweep, steaming Oakland up to a -115 road favorite. This line movement is notable because the public is split 50/50. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are split. So we know this move to Oakland was caused by the bigger, sharper wagers backing the Athletics. The total is 9.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling some liability on a higher scoring game. The forecast callas for high 80s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left center. The Athletics are 21-11-2 to the over. 

 

4:05 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco (-135, 9) 

The Giants (15-17) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 6-4 as -105 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 4-1 as -165 home favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Brewers (18-15) start righty Adrian Houser (first start of the season, went 6-10, 4.73 ERA in 2022) and the Giants rebuttal with fellow righty Ross Stripling (0-1, 6.10 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as low as a -120 home favorite and Milwaukee a +110 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Giants laying a short chalk price, driving San Francisco up from -120 to -135. Favorites off a win receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 65-38 (63%) this season. Non-division favorites off a win are 123-66 (65%). Favorites who missed the playoffs the previous season are 120-80 (62%). The total is 9 with -110 juice on both sides. The forecast calls for low 60s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center. The over is receiving 49% of bets but 77% of money, a notable sharp over bet discrepancy.