Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Thursday April 20

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

 

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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday’s MLB slate…

 

6:35 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (-160, 9) 

The Reds (7-11) just dropped two of three at home against the Rays, losing 8-0 on Wednesday as +225 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Pirates (12-7) just swept the Rockies at Coors Field, winning 14-3 yesterday as -125 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, Cincinnati starts righty Luke Weaver, who is making his season debut, while Pittsburgh counters with righty Roansy Contreras (1-1, 6.00 ERA). This line opened with the Pirates listed as a -145 home favorite and the Reds a +125 road dog. Pros have laid the chalk with the Pirates, steaming Pittsburgh up from -145 to -160. The Pirates are receiving 79% of bets but 86% of money, signaling heavy Pro and Joe support. Pittsburgh has the edge at the plate (hitting .257 vs .239) and on the mound (4.08 ERA vs 5.40 ERA). Cincinnati is 4-10 as a dog, 2-10 against righties and 1-5 on the road. Pittsburgh is 2-0 as a favorite and 8-5 against righties. The Pirates also have the fresher bullpen, throwing 9 innings over the past 3 games compared to 15.1 innings for the Reds. Pittsburgh is +19 in run differential. Cincinnati is -16. 

 

6:40 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies (-220, 9)

The Rockies (5-14) have lost eight straight games and just got swept by the Pirates at home, losing 14-3 on Wednesday as +110 home dogs. On the flip side, the Phillies (8-11) just took two of three at the White Sox, winning 5-2 yesterday as -120 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, Colorado sends out righty Ryan Feltner (0-2, 8.78 ERA) and Philadelphia rebuttals with lefty Matt Strahm (1-1, 2.13 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a -200 home favorite and the Rockies a +185 road dog. Pros aren’t scared off by the expensive price and have gotten down on Philadelphia, steaming the Phillies up from -200 to -220. The Phillies are receiving roughly 85% of bets and money, indicating lopsided public and sharp support in their favor. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more in their direction are 48-28 (63%) this season. Non-division favorites off a win are 69-37 (65%). Philadelphia will lean on their bats, hitting .284 vs .252 for Colorado. The Rockies are 3-10 as a dog, 1-4 vs lefties and 2-7 on the road. Philadelphia’s bullpen is far more rested as well, pitching 7.2 innings over the past 3 games compared to 17.2 innings for Colorado.