Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday’s MLB action…
7:05 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-120, 8.5) at New York Yankees
This is the fourth and final game of this AL East series. After dropping the first two matchups, the Orioles (50-35) won 6-3 on Wednesday, cashing as -105 road dogs. In tonight’s series finale, the Orioles hand the ball to righty Kyle Bradish (4-4, 3.58 ERA) and the Yankees (48-39) counter with fellow righty Luis Severino (1-3, 6.30 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -115 road favorite and New York a +105 home dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this even bet count we’ve seen the Orioles creep up from -115 to -120. This signals smart money laying the short chalk with Baltimore. The Orioles have the better bats, hitting .250 compared to .232 for the Yankees. Baltimore also has the far-fresher bullpen, tossing 6 innings over the past three games compared to 12.2 innings for New York. Baltimore is 28-12 as a favorite, 32-25 against righties and 24-17 on the road. Pros have also leaned under, as the total has dipped from 9 to 8.5 at most shops. The Yankees are 46-37 (55%) to the under this season, the 7th-best under team in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (-130, 10)
The Mets (40-46) have the won the first two games of this three-game set, taking the opener 8-5 as -150 road favorites and then winning against last night 2-1 as -115 road favorites. In tonight’s series finale, the Mets go with righty Carlos Carrasco (2-3, 5.94 ERA) and the Diamondbacks (50-37) send out fellow righty Ryne Nelson (5-4, 4.67 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a -120 home favorite and New York a +110 road dog. Pros have gotten down on the Diamondbacks to avoid the sweep, steaming Arizona up from -120 to -130. The Diamondbacks are receiving 64% of bets but 73% of money, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action. Non-division home favorites receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 177-111 (62%) this season. The Snakes have the advantage at the plate, hitting .260 versus .239 for the Mets. The Diamondbacks are 26-12 as a favorite. The Mets are just 7-19 as a dog. Carrasco posted a 6.23 ERA in June. The Mets went 0-6 in Carrasco’s six June starts. Sharps are also leaning over, as the total is 10 with the over juiced to -115.
