Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday’s MLB slate…
1:07 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Toronto Blue Jays (-190, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Blue Jays (29-27) won the opener 7-2, cashing as -155 home favorites. Then the Brewers (29-26) bounced back with a 4-2 win on Wednesday as +125 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, Milwaukee starts righty Freddy Peralta (5-4, 4.64 ERA) and Toronto counters with fellow righty Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.03 ERA). This line opened with the Blue Jays listed as a -175 home favorite and the Brewers a +160 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive price and have steamed Toronto up from -175 to -190. AL East teams vs non-AL East opponents are 119-70 (63%) this season. The Jays have a big edge at the plate, hitting .266 compared to .230 for the Brewers. Toronto also has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. The total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling some liability on a lower scoring game. The under is receiving 46% of bets but 77% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Gausman has a 2.10 ERA at home compared to 3.76 on the road.
7:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins (-135, 8)
The Guardians (25-30) just took two of three at the Orioles, winning 12-8 yesterday as -115 road favorites. Similarly, the Twins (29-27) just took two of three at the Astros, cruising 8-2 yesterday as +165 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, Cleveland turns to righty Tanner Bibee (1-1, 2.88 ERA) and Minnesota taps fellow righty Pablo Lopez (3-3, 4.11 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as a -125 home favorite and the Guardians a +115 road dog. The public is split down the middle with 50% of bets on both sides of they moneyline. However, despite this even split we’ve seen the Twins creep up from -125 to -135. This signals smart money laying the short chalk with Minnesota. Home favorites off a win receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 90-45 (67%) this season. Both teams are hitting .233. The differences comes on the mound, with the Twins sporting a 3.45 ERA compared to 3.95 for the Guardians. Minnesota is 22-12 as a favorite and 16-12 at home. Cleveland is 10-12 as a dog and 13-15 on the road. The total is 8 with some shops juicing the under to -115, signaling some under liability. The under is receiving 50% of bets but 60% of money. When two AL Central teams face off, the under is 24-12 (60%) this season. Cleveland is 34-20 (63%) to the under, the second best under team trailing only the Padres. The forecast calls for high 70s with wind blowing in from right at 10 MPH.
