Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday’s MLB action…
2:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (-160, 9) at Kansas City Royals
The Guardians (39-40) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 2-1 as -140 road favorites and then winning again on Wednesday 14-1 as -150 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Guardians hand the ball to righty Shane Bieber (5-5, 3.69 ERA) while the Royals (22-58) counter with fellow righty Zack Greinke (1-8, 5.31 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -150 road favorite and Kansas City a +135 road dog. Sharps are riding the Guardians to complete the sweep, steaming Cleveland up from -150 to -160. The Guardians are receiving 82% of bets and 88% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous year playing teams who missed the postseason are 133-90 (60%) this season. Cleveland has the better bats (hitting .248 vs .231) and superior pitching (team ERA 3.75 vs 5.29). Kansas City is just 19-48 as a dog, 16-40 against righties and 10-30 at home. Greinke has an ERA of 9.00 in four June starts. The Royals are 0-8 in Greinke’s last eight starts overall. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 9 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 8.5. The Guardians are 45-32 (58%) to the under, the second best under team in MLB.
6:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins are Boston Red Sox (-120, 9)
The Marlins (47-34) have won both games of this three-game Interleague set, taking the opener 10-1 as +110 road dogs and then winning against yesterday 6-2 as -135 road favorites. In tonight’s series finale, Miami starts lefty Jesus Luzardo (6-5, 3.77 ERA) and the Red Sox (40-41) send out righty Brayan Bello (5-4, 3.27 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -125 home favorite and Miami a +110 road dog. Sharps have jumped on the plus money with the Fish, dropping Miami from +110 to +100. Miami is receiving roughly 60% of bets and dollars, signaling modest public and sharp support. Road dogs with a line move in their favor are 108-104 (51%) with a 17% ROI. Miami is 21-20 as a dog, 38-24 against righties and 22-18 on the road. The Marlins also have the fresher bullpen, tossing 9 innings over the past three games compared to 13.1 innings for Boston. Pros are also leaning over, as the total is 9 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise up to 9.5. The over is 24-16 (60%) at Fenway Park this season, the 5th-best over park in MLB. The forecast calls for high 80s with 5 MPH winds blowing out to left center.
